Fresno State Bulldogs Projections 2018


These are the latest projections for the Fresno State Bulldogs. All of these projections for Fresno St are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 2/21/2018.

Fresno St Record and Rankings

Record: 19-8
Projected Final Record: 20.8-9.2

Mountain West Conference Record: 9-5
Projected Final Mountain West Record: 10.8-6.2
Projected Final Rank in the Mountain West: 3

Fresno St Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 80
RPI Rank: 96
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-3 2-1 5-4 10-0
Win % by Tier 0.000 0.667 0.556 1.000

Our current projections give the Fresno State Bulldogs a 11.0% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 6.0% chance at an NIT bid and a 83.0% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Fresno St’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 2.2%
NCAA #12 Seed 8.8%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 0.0%
NIT #2 Seed 0.2%
NIT #3 Seed 0.6%
NIT #4 Seed 2.2%
NIT #5 Seed 2.4%
NIT #6 Seed 0.6%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Fresno State Bulldogs. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Fresno St Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/10 No Rank UC Santa Cruz Home W 96-65
11/13 328 CS Northridge Home W 89-73
11/17 25 Arkansas Away L 75-83
11/21 141 Evansville Riviera Maya, Mexico L 57-59
11/22 200 George Mason Riviera Maya, Mexico W 79-73
11/26 248 Montana St Home W 80-67
11/30 125 Weber St Home W 83-71
12/2 186 Long Beach St Away W 106-70
12/5 231 CS Bakersfield Home W 70-55
12/9 297 Cal Poly Away W 83-63
12/13 331 Ark Pine Bluff Home W 78-52
12/16 65 Oregon Home L 61-68
12/18 No Rank CS Monterey Bay Home W 93-56
12/27 23 Nevada Home L 65-80
12/30 226 Air Force Home W 71-59
1/3 132 Utah St Away L 79-81
1/6 204 Colorado St Away W 82-79
1/9 59 Boise St Home L 64-70
1/13 136 New Mexico Home W 89-80
1/17 89 San Diego St Away W 77-73
1/23 86 UNLV Home W 69-63
1/27 132 Utah St Home L 62-65
1/31 23 Nevada Away L 92-102
2/3 103 Wyoming Away W 80-62
2/6 89 San Diego St Home W 79-61
2/14 321 San Jose St Away W 77-57
2/17 204 Colorado St Home W 86-65
2/21 86 UNLV Away 42.5%
2/24 103 Wyoming Home 80.4%
3/3 136 New Mexico Away 55.9%