Fresno State Bulldogs Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the Fresno State Bulldogs. All of these projections for Fresno St are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 3/17/2019.

Fresno St Record and Rankings

Record: 23-9
Projected Final Record: 23.0-9.0

Mountain West Conference Record: 13-5
Projected Final Mountain West Record: 13.0-5.0
Projected Final Rank in the Mountain West: 3

Fresno St Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 86
RPI Rank: 103
NET Rank: 82
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 1-5 1-1 5-2 15-1
Win % by Tier 0.167 0.500 0.714 0.938

Our current projections give the Fresno State Bulldogs a 0.8% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 62.2% chance at an NIT bid and a 37.0% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Fresno St’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 1.2%
NIT #2 Seed 0.2%
NIT #3 Seed 0.8%
NIT #4 Seed 4.8%
NIT #5 Seed 30.4%
NIT #6 Seed 22.0%
NIT #7 Seed 2.8%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Fresno State Bulldogs. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Fresno St Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 No Rank AK Anchorage Home W 91-63
11/15 43 TCU Away L 69-77
11/22 97 Northwestern Neutal W 78-59
11/23 84 Miami FL Neutral L 76-78
11/25 186 Hawaii Neutal W 79-64
11/28 199 Pacific Home W 81-78
12/1 334 Cal Poly Home W 76-67
12/5 217 Weber St Home W 71-52
12/8 210 Long Beach St Home W 92-71
12/19 230 California Home W 95-73
12/22 283 TN Martin Home W 93-53
12/29 88 Utah Valley Home L 60-64
1/2 339 San Jose St Away W 73-53
1/5 213 Colorado St Home W 78-67
1/9 30 Utah St Away W 78-77
1/12 28 Nevada Home L 64-74
1/19 182 Boise St Away W 63-53
1/22 100 San Diego St Home W 66-62
1/26 213 Colorado St Away L 65-74
1/30 315 Wyoming Away W 75-62
2/2 191 New Mexico Home W 82-70
2/5 30 Utah St Home L 81-82
2/9 156 UNLV Away W 83-65
2/13 182 Boise St Home W 65-63
2/16 191 New Mexico Away W 81-73
2/20 222 Air Force Home L 61-64
2/23 28 Nevada Away L 68-74
2/27 315 Wyoming Home W 71-60
3/6 100 San Diego St Away W 76-74
3/9 339 San Jose St Home W 121-81
3/14 222 Air Force Neutal W 76-50
3/15 30 Utah St Neutral L 60-85