Fresno State Bulldogs Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the Fresno State Bulldogs. All of these projections for Fresno St are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 1/20/2019.

Fresno St Record and Rankings

Record: 13-4
Projected Final Record: 22.7-7.3

Mountain West Conference Record: 4-1
Projected Final Mountain West Record: 13.7-4.3
Projected Final Rank in the Mountain West: 2

Fresno St Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 63
RPI Rank: 81
NET Rank: 65
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 1-2 0-1 4-1 7-0
Win % by Tier 0.333 0.000 0.800 1.000

Our current projections give the Fresno State Bulldogs a 23.4% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 60.2% chance at an NIT bid and a 16.4% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Fresno St’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.8%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.8%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #9 Seed 1.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 1.6%
NCAA #11 Seed 2.8%
NCAA #12 Seed 13.4%
NCAA #13 Seed 1.2%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.2%
NIT #1 Seed 5.2%
NIT #2 Seed 8.0%
NIT #3 Seed 13.4%
NIT #4 Seed 14.8%
NIT #5 Seed 8.8%
NIT #6 Seed 7.4%
NIT #7 Seed 2.2%
NIT #8 Seed 0.4%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Fresno State Bulldogs. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Fresno St Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 No Rank AK Anchorage Home W 91-63
11/15 31 TCU Away L 69-77
11/22 61 Northwestern Neutal W 78-59
11/23 97 Miami FL Neutral L 76-78
11/25 170 Hawaii Neutal W 79-64
11/28 179 Pacific Home W 81-78
12/1 337 Cal Poly Home W 76-67
12/5 163 Weber St Home W 71-52
12/8 190 Long Beach St Home W 92-71
12/19 255 California Home W 95-73
12/22 332 TN Martin Home W 93-53
12/29 114 Utah Valley Home L 60-64
1/2 331 San Jose St Away W 73-53
1/5 215 Colorado St Home W 78-67
1/9 57 Utah St Away W 78-77
1/12 22 Nevada Home L 64-74
1/19 160 Boise St Away W 63-53
1/22 151 San Diego St Home 85.9%
1/26 215 Colorado St Away 75.7%
1/30 318 Wyoming Away 91.8%
2/2 176 New Mexico Home 88.9%
2/5 57 Utah St Home 57.5%
2/9 156 UNLV Away 61.5%
2/13 160 Boise St Home 85%
2/16 176 New Mexico Away 64.1%
2/20 231 Air Force Home 92.6%
2/23 22 Nevada Away 15%
2/27 318 Wyoming Home 98.4%
3/6 151 San Diego St Away 59.2%
3/9 331 San Jose St Home 98.6%