Fresno State Bulldogs Projections 2018


These are the latest projections for the Fresno State Bulldogs. All of these projections for Fresno St are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 3/19/2018.

Fresno St Record and Rankings

Record: 21-11
Projected Final Record: 21.0-11.0

Mountain West Conference Record: 11-8
Projected Final Mountain West Record: 11.0-8.0
Projected Final Rank in the Mountain West: 4

Fresno St Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 89
RPI Rank: 103
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 1-3 3-4 4-4 11-0
Win % by Tier 0.250 0.429 0.500 1.000

Our current projections give the Fresno State Bulldogs a 0.0% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 0.6% chance at an NIT bid and a 99.4% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Fresno St’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 0.0%
NIT #2 Seed 0.0%
NIT #3 Seed 0.0%
NIT #4 Seed 0.0%
NIT #5 Seed 0.0%
NIT #6 Seed 0.6%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Fresno State Bulldogs. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Fresno St Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/10 No Rank UC Santa Cruz Home W 96-65
11/13 330 CS Northridge Home W 89-73
11/17 24 Arkansas Away L 75-83
11/21 155 Evansville Riviera Maya, Mexico L 57-59
11/22 187 George Mason Riviera Maya, Mexico W 79-73
11/26 269 Montana St Home W 80-67
11/30 157 Weber St Home W 83-71
12/2 185 Long Beach St Away W 106-70
12/5 232 CS Bakersfield Home W 70-55
12/9 308 Cal Poly Away W 83-63
12/13 324 Ark Pine Bluff Home W 78-52
12/16 60 Oregon Home L 61-68
12/18 No Rank CS Monterey Bay Home W 93-56
12/27 34 Nevada Home L 65-80
12/30 218 Air Force Home W 71-59
1/3 141 Utah St Away L 79-81
1/6 215 Colorado St Away W 82-79
1/9 66 Boise St Home L 64-70
1/13 99 New Mexico Home W 89-80
1/17 64 San Diego St Away W 77-73
1/23 102 UNLV Home W 69-63
1/27 141 Utah St Home L 62-65
1/31 34 Nevada Away L 92-102
2/3 109 Wyoming Away W 80-62
2/6 64 San Diego St Home W 79-61
2/14 313 San Jose St Away W 77-57
2/17 215 Colorado St Home W 86-65
2/21 102 UNLV Away W 77-64
2/24 109 Wyoming Home L 68-78
2/26 218 Air Force Away W 54-48
3/3 99 New Mexico Away L 86-95
3/8 64 San Diego St Las Vegas, NV L 52-64