Fresno State Bulldogs Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the Fresno State Bulldogs. All of these projections for Fresno St are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 12/10/2018.

Fresno St Record and Rankings

Record: 7-2
Projected Final Record: 21.4-8.6

Mountain West Conference Record: 0-0
Projected Final Mountain West Record: 11.7-6.3
Projected Final Rank in the Mountain West: 3

Fresno St Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 75
RPI Rank: 49
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-1 1-0 3-1 2-0
Win % by Tier 0.000 1.000 0.750 1.000

Our current projections give the Fresno State Bulldogs a 14.2% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 45.0% chance at an NIT bid and a 40.8% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Fresno St’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.8%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.8%
NCAA #8 Seed 1.6%
NCAA #9 Seed 1.8%
NCAA #10 Seed 1.8%
NCAA #11 Seed 3.2%
NCAA #12 Seed 2.0%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 4.2%
NIT #2 Seed 9.2%
NIT #3 Seed 7.2%
NIT #4 Seed 8.0%
NIT #5 Seed 6.4%
NIT #6 Seed 7.2%
NIT #7 Seed 2.6%
NIT #8 Seed 0.2%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Fresno State Bulldogs. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Fresno St Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 No Rank AK Anchorage Home W 91-63
11/15 45 TCU Away L 69-77
11/22 49 Northwestern Neutal W 78-59
11/23 90 Miami FL Neutral L 76-78
11/25 166 Hawaii Neutal W 79-64
11/28 164 Pacific Home W 81-78
12/1 288 Cal Poly Home W 76-67
12/5 184 Weber St Home W 71-52
12/8 205 Long Beach St Home W 92-71
12/19 170 California Home 88.1%
12/22 313 TN Martin Home 98.5%
12/29 140 Utah Valley Home 82.6%
1/2 326 San Jose St Away 92%
1/5 210 Colorado St Home 92%
1/9 41 Utah St Away 25.2%
1/12 7 Nevada Home 25.7%
1/19 183 Boise St Away 63.4%
1/22 89 San Diego St Home 66%
1/26 210 Colorado St Away 69.9%
1/30 221 Wyoming Away 71.2%
2/2 147 New Mexico Home 83%
2/5 41 Utah St Home 51.8%
2/9 153 UNLV Away 57.5%
2/13 183 Boise St Home 86.6%
2/16 147 New Mexico Away 56.9%
2/20 256 Air Force Home 92.2%
2/23 7 Nevada Away 8.9%
2/27 221 Wyoming Home 90.6%
3/6 89 San Diego St Away 42.5%
3/9 326 San Jose St Home 95.7%