George Mason Patriots Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the George Mason Patriots. All of these projections for George Mason are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 1/20/2019.

George Mason Record and Rankings

Record: 11-8
Projected Final Record: 17.8-13.2

Atlantic 10 Conference Record: 5-1
Projected Final Atlantic 10 Record: 11.8-6.2
Projected Final Rank in the Atlantic 10: 5

George Mason Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 137
RPI Rank: 154
NET Rank: 137
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-3 1-3 3-1 7-1
Win % by Tier 0.000 0.250 0.750 0.875

Our current projections give the George Mason Patriots a 7.2% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 5.4% chance at an NIT bid and a 87.4% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account George Mason’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #14 Seed 2.2%
NCAA #15 Seed 2.8%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 1.6%
NIT #2 Seed 0.4%
NIT #3 Seed 0.6%
NIT #4 Seed 0.6%
NIT #5 Seed 0.8%
NIT #6 Seed 1.2%
NIT #7 Seed 0.2%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the George Mason Patriots. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

George Mason Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 111 Penn Home L 71-72
11/9 236 American Univ Home L 75-78
11/13 124 Ga Southern Away L 89-98
11/17 343 Southern Univ Home W 69-65
11/20 329 NC Central Home W 78-63
11/23 32 Cincinnati Neutral L 55-71
11/24 55 Baylor Neutral L 61-72
11/28 325 Morgan St Home W 82-75
12/1 226 William & Mary Away W 87-84
12/3 72 Vermont Home L 67-72
12/7 246 James Madison Home W 66-53
12/21 277 Navy Home W 84-63
12/29 30 Kansas St Away L 58-59
1/3 168 St Joseph’s PA Away W 85-60
1/6 195 St Bonaventure Home W 68-53
1/9 69 Davidson Home L 56-61
1/13 129 Rhode Island Away W 84-67
1/16 197 Massachusetts Away W 68-63
1/19 235 Fordham Home W 71-68
1/23 70 Dayton Away 19.4%
1/26 249 G Washington Home 86.4%
2/2 52 VA Commonwealth Away 16.5%
2/6 229 Richmond Away 61.8%
2/10 275 La Salle Home 86.1%
2/13 197 Massachusetts Home 79.7%
2/17 195 St Bonaventure Away 56.3%
2/23 139 Duquesne Home 62.5%
2/27 229 Richmond Home 82.6%
3/2 64 St Louis Away 20.8%
3/5 52 VA Commonwealth Home 38.9%
3/9 249 G Washington Away 64.5%