Gonzaga Bulldogs Projections 2018


These are the latest projections for the Gonzaga Bulldogs. All of these projections for Gonzaga are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 2/19/2018.

Gonzaga Record and Rankings

Record: 25-4
Projected Final Record: 26.4-4.6

WCC Conference Record: 15-1
Projected Final WCC Record: 16.4-1.6
Projected Final Rank in the WCC: 1

Gonzaga Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 13
RPI Rank: 45
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: 5 Seed

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 3-1 2-3 6-0 14-0
Win % by Tier 0.750 0.400 1.000 1.000

Our current projections give the Gonzaga Bulldogs a 93.8% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 6.2% chance at an NIT bid and a 0.0% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Gonzaga’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 1.2%
NCAA #3 Seed 16.8%
NCAA #4 Seed 22.4%
NCAA #5 Seed 21.6%
NCAA #6 Seed 10.2%
NCAA #7 Seed 4.4%
NCAA #8 Seed 2.6%
NCAA #9 Seed 1.8%
NCAA #10 Seed 3.4%
NCAA #11 Seed 8.4%
NCAA #12 Seed 1.0%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 3.0%
NIT #2 Seed 2.0%
NIT #3 Seed 1.0%
NIT #4 Seed 0.2%
NIT #5 Seed 0.0%
NIT #6 Seed 0.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Gonzaga Bulldogs. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Gonzaga Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/10 301 TX Southern Home W 97-69
11/14 334 Howard Home W 106-69
11/18 132 Utah St Home W 79-66
11/23 14 Ohio St Portland, OR W 86-59
11/24 35 Florida Portland, OR L 105-111
11/26 39 Texas Portland, OR W 76-71
11/29 347 Incarnate Word Home W 103-68
12/1 24 Creighton Home W 91-74
12/5 2 Villanova New York, NY L 72-88
12/10 69 Washington Away W 97-70
12/16 244 North Dakota Home W 89-83
12/18 305 IUPUI Home W 101-71
12/21 89 San Diego St Away L 70-72
12/28 168 Pacific Home W 81-48
12/30 221 Santa Clara Home W 101-52
1/4 325 Pepperdine Away W 89-59
1/6 262 Loy Marymount Away W 85-66
1/11 253 Portland Home W 103-57
1/13 140 San Francisco Away W 75-65
1/18 33 St Mary’s CA Home L 71-74
1/20 221 Santa Clara Away W 75-60
1/25 253 Portland Away W 95-79
1/27 140 San Francisco Home W 82-73
2/1 146 San Diego Home W 69-59
2/3 87 BYU Home W 68-60
2/8 168 Pacific Away W 71-61
2/10 33 St Mary’s CA Away W 78-65
2/15 262 Loy Marymount Home W 76-46
2/17 325 Pepperdine Home W 81-67
2/22 146 San Diego Away 80.6%
2/24 87 BYU Away 63.4%