Gonzaga Bulldogs Projections 2018


These are the latest projections for the Gonzaga Bulldogs. All of these projections for Gonzaga are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 3/19/2018.

Gonzaga Record and Rankings

Record: 32-4
Projected Final Record: 32.7-4.3

WCC Conference Record: 20-1
Projected Final WCC Record: 20.0-1.0
Projected Final Rank in the WCC: 1

Gonzaga Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 11
RPI Rank: 21
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: 4 Seed

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 4-3 4-1 7-0 15-0
Win % by Tier 0.571 0.800 1.000 1.000

Our current projections give the Gonzaga Bulldogs a 100.0% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 0.0% chance at an NIT bid and a 0.0% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Gonzaga’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #2 Seed 8.8%
NCAA #3 Seed 13.6%
NCAA #4 Seed 26.2%
NCAA #5 Seed 33.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 5.4%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.8%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 12.0%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 0.0%
NIT #2 Seed 0.0%
NIT #3 Seed 0.0%
NIT #4 Seed 0.0%
NIT #5 Seed 0.0%
NIT #6 Seed 0.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Gonzaga Bulldogs. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Gonzaga Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/10 264 TX Southern Home W 97-69
11/14 335 Howard Home W 106-69
11/18 141 Utah St Home W 79-66
11/23 19 Ohio St Portland, OR W 86-59
11/24 23 Florida Portland, OR L 105-111
11/26 32 Texas Portland, OR W 76-71
11/29 346 Incarnate Word Home W 103-68
12/1 28 Creighton Home W 91-74
12/5 2 Villanova New York, NY L 72-88
12/10 80 Washington Away W 97-70
12/16 239 North Dakota Home W 89-83
12/18 289 IUPUI Home W 101-71
12/21 64 San Diego St Away L 70-72
12/28 186 Pacific Home W 81-48
12/30 248 Santa Clara Home W 101-52
1/4 292 Pepperdine Away W 89-59
1/6 236 Loy Marymount Away W 85-66
1/11 273 Portland Home W 103-57
1/13 147 San Francisco Away W 75-65
1/18 43 St Mary’s CA Home L 71-74
1/20 248 Santa Clara Away W 75-60
1/25 273 Portland Away W 95-79
1/27 147 San Francisco Home W 82-73
2/1 145 San Diego Home W 69-59
2/3 79 BYU Home W 68-60
2/8 186 Pacific Away W 71-61
2/10 43 St Mary’s CA Away W 78-65
2/15 236 Loy Marymount Home W 76-46
2/17 292 Pepperdine Home W 81-67
2/22 145 San Diego Away W 77-72
2/24 79 BYU Away W 79-65
3/3 236 Loy Marymount Las Vegas, NV W 83-69
3/5 147 San Francisco Las Vegas, NV W 88-60
3/6 79 BYU Las Vegas, NV W 74-54
3/15 76 UNC Greensboro NCAA Tournament Boise ID W 68-64
3/17 19 Ohio St NCAA Tournament Boise, ID W 90-84
3/22 36 Florida St NCAA Tournament Los Angeles, CA 65.4%