Gonzaga Bulldogs Projections 2018


These are the latest projections for the Gonzaga Bulldogs. All of these projections for Gonzaga are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 11/12/2018.

Gonzaga Record and Rankings

Record: 2-0
Projected Final Record: 26.0-3.0

WCC Conference Record: 0-0
Projected Final WCC Record: 14.7-1.3
Projected Final Rank in the WCC: 1

Gonzaga Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 3
RPI Rank: 2
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: 1 Seed

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 1-0 1-0 0-0 0-0
Win % by Tier 1.000 1.000 0.000 0.000

Our current projections give the Gonzaga Bulldogs a 100.0% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 0.0% chance at an NIT bid and a 0.0% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Gonzaga’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 16.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 59.2%
NCAA #3 Seed 4.8%
NCAA #4 Seed 2.6%
NCAA #5 Seed 2.6%
NCAA #6 Seed 2.6%
NCAA #7 Seed 2.6%
NCAA #8 Seed 1.6%
NCAA #9 Seed 1.8%
NCAA #10 Seed 1.4%
NCAA #11 Seed 1.4%
NCAA #12 Seed 3.0%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 0.0%
NIT #2 Seed 0.0%
NIT #3 Seed 0.0%
NIT #4 Seed 0.0%
NIT #5 Seed 0.0%
NIT #6 Seed 0.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Gonzaga Bulldogs. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Gonzaga Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 236 Idaho St Home W 120-79
11/10 137 TX Southern Home W 104-67
11/15 70 Texas A&M Home 92.2%
11/19 45 Illinois Neutral 79.4%
11/26 149 N Dakota St Home 98.4%
12/1 53 Creighton Away 72.5%
12/5 55 Washington Home 91.8%
12/9 7 Tennessee Neutral 55.1%
12/15 5 North Carolina Away 42.7%
12/18 127 UT Arlington Home 98.5%
12/21 197 Denver Home 98.7%
12/28 No Rank North Alabama Home 100%
12/31 196 CS Bakersfield Home 98.7%
1/5 285 Santa Clara Home 99.3%
1/10 188 Pacific Home 98.7%
1/12 104 San Francisco Away 87.3%
1/17 155 Loy Marymount Home 98.6%
1/19 284 Portland Away 96.4%
1/24 285 Santa Clara Away 97.7%
1/31 93 BYU Away 81.8%
2/2 106 San Diego Home 96.4%
2/7 104 San Francisco Home 96.4%
2/9 35 St Mary’s CA Home 88.1%
2/14 155 Loy Marymount Away 92.1%
2/16 106 San Diego Away 86.8%
2/21 243 Pepperdine Home 98.8%
2/23 93 BYU Home 93.8%
2/28 188 Pacific Away 92.6%
3/2 35 St Mary’s CA Away 64.5%