Harvard Crimson Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the Harvard Crimson. All of these projections for Harvard are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 3/17/2019.

Harvard Record and Rankings

Record: 18-11
Projected Final Record: 18.0-11.0

Ivy League Conference Record: 10-4
Projected Final Ivy League Record: 10.0-4.0
Projected Final Rank in the Ivy League: 1

Harvard Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 101
RPI Rank: 49
NET Rank: 133
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 2-2 3-4 4-3 8-1
Win % by Tier 0.500 0.429 0.571 0.889

Our current projections give the Harvard Crimson a 31.2% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 68.8% chance at an NIT bid and a 0.0% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Harvard’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.8%
NCAA #13 Seed 2.8%
NCAA #14 Seed 27.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 0.0%
NIT #2 Seed 0.0%
NIT #3 Seed 0.0%
NIT #4 Seed 0.4%
NIT #5 Seed 0.6%
NIT #6 Seed 0.2%
NIT #7 Seed 51.0%
NIT #8 Seed 16.6%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Harvard Crimson. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Harvard Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 No Rank MIT Home W 78-66
11/9 79 Northeastern Home L 71-81
11/13 239 Massachusetts Away W 74-71
11/16 129 Rhode Island Away L 74-76
11/21 94 San Francisco Away L 57-61
11/24 39 St Mary’s CA Away W 74-68
11/28 232 Holy Cross Home W 73-62
12/1 234 Siena Away L 64-67
12/8 85 Vermont Away L 65-71
12/22 276 G Washington Home W 75-61
12/29 214 Mercer Neutal W 71-67
1/2 4 North Carolina Away L 57-77
1/12 245 Dartmouth Away L 63-81
1/21 301 Howard Away W 84-71
1/26 245 Dartmouth Home W 64-59
2/1 83 Yale Home W 65-49
2/2 145 Brown Home W 68-47
2/8 203 Columbia Home W 98-96
2/9 181 Cornell Home L 61-67
2/15 152 Princeton Away W 78-69
2/16 126 Penn Away W 75-68
2/22 145 Brown Away L 79-88
2/23 83 Yale Away W 88-86
3/1 126 Penn Home W 59-53
3/2 152 Princeton Home W 66-58
3/8 181 Cornell Away L 59-72
3/9 203 Columbia Away W 83-81
3/16 126 Penn Neutal W 66-58
3/17 83 Yale Neutral L 85-97