Harvard Crimson Projections 2018


These are the latest projections for the Harvard Crimson. All of these projections for Harvard are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 3/19/2018.

Harvard Record and Rankings

Record: 18-14
Projected Final Record: 18.0-14.0

Ivy League Conference Record: 13-3
Projected Final Ivy League Record: 13.0-3.0
Projected Final Rank in the Ivy League: 1

Harvard Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 149
RPI Rank: 117
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-3 0-5 4-3 13-2
Win % by Tier 0.000 0.000 0.571 0.867

Our current projections give the Harvard Crimson a 52.0% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 48.0% chance at an NIT bid and a 0.0% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Harvard’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #15 Seed 23.6%
NCAA #16 Seed 27.8%
NIT #1 Seed 0.0%
NIT #2 Seed 0.0%
NIT #3 Seed 0.0%
NIT #4 Seed 0.0%
NIT #5 Seed 0.0%
NIT #6 Seed 0.2%
NIT #7 Seed 47.8%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Harvard Crimson. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Harvard Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/10 No Rank MIT Home W 73-64
11/12 200 Massachusetts Home W 70-67
11/16 277 Holy Cross Away L 69-73
11/18 226 Manhattan Away L 69-73
11/23 43 St Mary’s CA Fullerton, CA L 71-89
11/24 120 St Joseph’s PA Fullerton, CA W 77-71
11/26 144 CS Fullerton Away L 61-70
11/30 97 Northeastern Away L 61-77
12/2 17 Kentucky Away L 70-79
12/6 270 Fordham Away W 47-45
12/21 253 Boston Univ Home W 74-63
12/23 175 G Washington Away L 48-58
12/30 111 Minnesota Away L 55-65
1/2 84 Vermont Home L 56-62
1/6 316 Dartmouth Home W 61-51
1/10 132 Wofford Away L 62-63
1/20 316 Dartmouth Away W 62-57
1/26 199 Yale Away W 54-52
1/27 281 Brown Away W 86-77
2/2 278 Columbia Away L 76-83
2/3 258 Cornell Away W 76-73
2/9 212 Princeton Home W 66-51
2/10 116 Penn Home W 76-67
2/16 281 Brown Home W 65-58
2/17 199 Yale Home W 64-49
2/23 212 Princeton Away W 72-66
2/24 116 Penn Away L 71-74
3/2 258 Cornell Home W 98-88
3/3 278 Columbia Home W 93-74
3/10 258 Cornell Philadelphia, PA W 74-55
3/11 116 Penn Away L 65-68
3/14 47 Marquette Away L 60-67