Horizon Basketball Projections 2018-2019


These are the latest Horizon League Conference projections based on our NCAA College Basketball Ratings. These projections for the Horizon are based on actual results of previous games and our predicted results for games upcoming in the future. The rank (or seed) for each team is only based upon their projected finish in the conference. Our latest update to these projections was done on 2/21/2019.

Horizon Projected Standings

Rank Team All Games Conference Games
Actual Projected Actual Projected
Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses
1 N Kentucky 20 7 23.3 7.7 10 4 13.3 4.7
2 Wright St 16 11 19 12 10 4 13 5
3 IL Chicago 14 13 16.4 14.6 8 6 10.4 7.6
4 Oakland 12 16 13.8 17.2 8 7 9.8 8.2
5 WI Green Bay 14 13 15.6 15.4 8 6 9.6 8.4
6 Youngstown St 12 16 13 18 8 7 9 9
7 Detroit 10 17 11.4 18.6 7 8 8.4 9.6
8 IUPUI 14 13 16.4 14.6 6 8 8.4 9.6
9 WI Milwaukee 9 18 9.9 21.1 4 10 4.9 13.1
10 Cleveland St 8 20 8.4 22.6 3 12 3.4 14.6

Projected Horizon Tournament Bids

Our full list of NCAA Tournament and NIT Tournament projections can be found here. The below list contains our latest NCAA Tournament projections for teams within the Horizon League Conference. The “Bracket Rating” is based on a proprietary formula that projects a team’s bracket seeding by the NCAA Tournament committee.

Team Seed Bracket Rating
N Kentucky 14 1.653

Projected Horizon Regular Season Finish

Based on 100 simulations, this is the projected place where each team finishes in the Horizon League Conference standings.

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Top 8
N Kentucky 51% 48% 1% 0% 100%
Wright St 49% 51% 0% 0% 100%
IL Chicago 0% 0% 39% 24% 100%
Oakland 0% 0% 29% 39% 100%
WI Green Bay 0% 1% 21% 14% 100%
Youngstown St 0% 0% 2% 6% 100%
Detroit 0% 0% 3% 9% 100%
IUPUI 0% 0% 5% 8% 99%
WI Milwaukee 0% 0% 0% 0% 1%
Cleveland St 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Horizon Conference Tournament Predictions

Below are the odds to advance to each stage of the Horizon League Conference Tournament. The table below is based on 1,000 simulations. The Horizon League Men’s Conference Championship changed it’s format in 2019. The tournament is now played as an eight team tournament instead of ten. The First Round is played on the site of the higher seed and then the Semis and Finals are played at a neutral site.

Regular Season Champion: TBD
Tournament Site: Campus Sites and Little Caesars Arena (Detroit, MI)
Quarterfinals: March 5th and 6th, 2019
Semifinals: March 11th, 2019
Finals: March 12th, 2019

Seed Team To Advance To
Qtrs Semis Finals To Win
1
N Kentucky
88.5%
68.8%
47.9%
2
Wright St
82.4%
58.9%
28.8%
3
IL Chicago
59.7%
18%
7.6%
4
Oakland
54.2%
17.9%
5%
5
WI Green Bay
40.6%
12.2%
4.5%
6
Youngstown St
21.4%
4.9%
1%
7
Detroit
24.6%
7.6%
1.5%
8
IUPUI
18.5%
7.7%
3%
9
WI Milwaukee
8.9%
3.2%
0.5%
10
Cleveland St
1.2%
0.8%
0.2%

Horizon Upcoming Conference Games with Projections

Every projection takes into account the ability of each team, home court advantage, and other factors that make for accurate predictions.

Date Away Team Away Prob to Win Home Team Home Prob to Win Game Projection
2/21 Cleveland St 8.2% Wright St 91.8% Wright St wins by 14
2/21 Youngstown St 9.2% N Kentucky 90.8% N Kentucky wins by 13
2/22 WI Green Bay 37.9% IL Chicago 62.1% IL Chicago wins by 4
2/22 WI Milwaukee 17.4% IUPUI 82.6% IUPUI wins by 10
2/23 Cleveland St 7.4% N Kentucky 92.6% N Kentucky wins by 15
2/23 Youngstown St 14.6% Wright St 85.4% Wright St wins by 11
2/23 Detroit 35.1% Oakland 64.9% Oakland wins by 5
2/24 WI Milwaukee 17.7% IL Chicago 82.3% IL Chicago wins by 10
2/24 WI Green Bay 37.9% IUPUI 62.1% IUPUI wins by 4
2/28 N Kentucky 79.4% WI Milwaukee 20.6% N Kentucky wins by 9
2/28 Wright St 57.1% WI Green Bay 42.9% Wright St wins by 3
2/28 IUPUI 48.9% Detroit 51.1% Detroit wins by 1
2/28 IL Chicago 43.1% Oakland 56.9% Oakland wins by 3
3/2 Cleveland St 26.7% Youngstown St 73.3% Youngstown St wins by 7
3/2 IL Chicago 48.5% Detroit 51.5% Detroit wins by 1
3/2 N Kentucky 62.8% WI Green Bay 37.2% N Kentucky wins by 5
3/2 Wright St 69.9% WI Milwaukee 30.1% Wright St wins by 6
3/2 IUPUI 43.3% Oakland 56.7% Oakland wins by 3

Projections in Other Conferences

For other conferences, please see below.

AAC ACC America East Atlantic 10
Atlantic Sun Big 12 Big East Big Sky
Big South Big Ten Big West Colonial
Conference USA Horizon Ivy League MAAC
MAC MEAC MWC MVC
NEC OVC Pac-12 Patriot
Southern SEC Summit Southland
Southwestern Sun Belt WAC WCC