Horizon Basketball Projections 2018-2019


These are the latest Horizon League Conference projections based on our NCAA College Basketball Ratings. These projections for the Horizon are based on actual results of previous games and our predicted results for games upcoming in the future. The rank (or seed) for each team is only based upon their projected finish in the conference. Our latest update to these projections was done on 12/10/2018.

Horizon Projected Standings

Rank Team All Games Conference Games
Actual Projected Actual Projected
Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses
1 IUPUI 6 3 21.9 9.1 0 0 12.3 5.7
2 N Kentucky 8 3 21.6 9.4 0 0 12.2 5.8
3 Wright St 4 6 17.8 13.2 0 0 11.8 6.2
4 IL Chicago 4 6 16.3 14.7 0 0 10.2 7.8
5 WI Green Bay 5 4 16.5 14.5 0 0 10.1 7.9
6 Cleveland St 4 7 12.8 18.2 0 0 7.9 10.1
7 Oakland 5 6 13.3 18.7 0 0 7.8 10.2
8 Detroit 3 7 11.1 18.9 0 0 7.7 10.3
9 WI Milwaukee 2 8 9.8 21.2 0 0 6.2 11.8
10 Youngstown St 3 8 7.3 23.7 0 0 3.8 14.2

Projected Horizon Tournament Bids

Our full list of NCAA Tournament and NIT Tournament projections can be found here. The below list contains our latest NCAA Tournament projections for teams within the Horizon League Conference. The “Bracket Rating” is based on a proprietary formula that projects a team’s bracket seeding by the NCAA Tournament committee.

Team Seed Bracket Rating
N Kentucky 15 2.119

Projected Horizon Regular Season Finish

Based on 100 simulations, this is the projected place where each team finishes in the Horizon League Conference standings.

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Top 8
IUPUI 28% 26% 17% 17% 100%
N Kentucky 33% 31% 17% 7% 100%
Wright St 27% 16% 23% 17% 99%
IL Chicago 3% 11% 14% 23% 94%
WI Green Bay 7% 11% 19% 17% 99%
Cleveland St 0% 1% 2% 5% 80%
Oakland 1% 3% 3% 8% 87%
Detroit 1% 1% 4% 5% 75%
WI Milwaukee 0% 0% 1% 0% 54%
Youngstown St 0% 0% 0% 1% 12%

Horizon Conference Tournament Predictions

Below are the odds to advance to each stage of the Horizon League Conference Tournament. The table below is based on 1,000 simulations. The Horizon League Men’s Conference Championship is played on a neutral site.

Regular Season Champion: TBD
Tournament Site: Little Caesars Arena (Detroit, MI)
First Round: March 5th, 2018
Quarterfinals: March 6th, 2018
Semifinals: March 11th, 2018
Finals: March 12th, 2018

Coming Soon!

Horizon Upcoming Conference Games with Projections

Every projection takes into account the ability of each team, home court advantage, and other factors that make for accurate predictions.

Date Away Team Away Prob to Win Home Team Home Prob to Win Game Projection
12/28 Detroit 63.4% Youngstown St 36.6% Detroit wins by 5
12/28 IL Chicago 29% Wright St 71% Wright St wins by 7
12/28 IUPUI 41.2% N Kentucky 58.8% N Kentucky wins by 3
12/28 Oakland 39.2% Cleveland St 60.8% Cleveland St wins by 4
12/29 WI Green Bay 61.5% WI Milwaukee 38.5% WI Green Bay wins by 4
12/30 Detroit 38.5% Cleveland St 61.5% Cleveland St wins by 4
12/30 IL Chicago 25.2% N Kentucky 74.8% N Kentucky wins by 8
12/30 IUPUI 43.5% Wright St 56.5% Wright St wins by 2
12/30 Oakland 63.4% Youngstown St 36.6% Oakland wins by 5
1/3 Cleveland St 52.6% WI Milwaukee 47.4% Cleveland St wins by 1
1/3 Wright St 61.5% Detroit 38.5% Wright St wins by 4
1/3 Youngstown St 8.2% WI Green Bay 91.8% WI Green Bay wins by 14
1/3 N Kentucky 62.8% Oakland 37.2% N Kentucky wins by 5
1/4 IUPUI 54.4% IL Chicago 45.6% IUPUI wins by 2
1/5 Cleveland St 25.7% WI Green Bay 74.3% WI Green Bay wins by 7
1/5 N Kentucky 62.8% Detroit 37.2% N Kentucky wins by 5
1/5 Youngstown St 20.1% WI Milwaukee 79.9% WI Milwaukee wins by 9
1/5 Wright St 61.1% Oakland 38.9% Wright St wins by 4

Projections in Other Conferences

For other conferences, please see below.

AAC ACC America East Atlantic 10
Atlantic Sun Big 12 Big East Big Sky
Big South Big Ten Big West Colonial
Conference USA Horizon Ivy League MAAC
MAC MEAC MWC MVC
NEC OVC Pac-12 Patriot
Southern SEC Summit Southland
Southwestern Sun Belt WAC WCC