Horizon Basketball Projections 2018


These are the latest Horizon League Conference projections based on our NCAA College Basketball Ratings. These projections for the Horizon are based on actual results of previous games and our predicted results for games upcoming in the future. The rank (or seed) for each team is only based upon their projected finish in the conference. Our latest update to these projections was done on 2/21/2018.

Horizon Projected Conference Standings

Rank Team All Games Conference Games
Actual Projected Actual Projected
Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses
1 N Kentucky 20 8 21.4 8.6 13 3 14.4 3.6
2 Wright St 21 8 22.2 8.8 13 3 14.2 3.8
3 IL Chicago 17 12 17.9 13.1 12 4 12.9 5.1
4 Oakland 17 12 18.7 12.3 9 7 10.7 7.3
5 WI Milwaukee 14 15 14.8 16.2 7 9 7.8 10.2
6 IUPUI 10 17 10.5 18.5 7 9 7.5 10.5
7 Youngstown St 8 22 8.6 22.4 6 11 6.6 11.4
8 WI Green Bay 10 19 10.6 20.4 5 11 5.6 12.4
9 Cleveland St 8 22 8.4 22.6 5 12 5.4 12.6
10 Detroit 8 21 9 22 4 12 5 13

Projected Horizon Tournament Bids

Our full list of NCAA Tournament and NIT Tournament projections can be found here. The below list contains our latest NCAA Tournament projections for teams within the Horizon League Conference. The “Bracket Rating” is based on a proprietary formula that projects a team’s bracket seeding by the NCAA Tournament committee.

Team Seed Bracket Rating
N Kentucky 15 1.27

Horizon Conference Tournament Predictions

Below are the odds to advance to each stage of the Horizon League Conference Tournament. The table below is based on 1,000 simulations. Another caveat is that this simulation is based on the projected final seed of each Horizon team. The Horizon League Men’s Conference Championship is played on a neutral site.

Regular Season Champion: TBD
Tournament Site: Little Caesars Arena (Detroit, MI)
First Round: March 2nd, 2018
Quarterfinals: March 3rd and 4th, 2018
Semifinals: March 5th, 2018
Finals: March 6th, 2018

Seed Team To Advance To
Qtrs Semis Finals To Win
1
N Kentucky
100%
86.2%
55.5%
38%
2
Wright St
100%
83.6%
54.2%
24.2%
3
IL Chicago
100%
73.3%
35.3%
13.3%
4
Oakland
100%
66.6%
32%
19%
5
WI Milwaukee
100%
33.4%
9.9%
3.3%
6
IUPUI
100%
26.7%
6.6%
1.2%
7
Youngstown St
46.3%
8.3%
2%
0.1%
8
WI Green Bay
57.1%
8.4%
1.3%
0.5%
9
Cleveland St
42.9%
5.4%
1.3%
0.1%
10
Detroit
53.7%
8.1%
1.9%
0.3%

Horizon Upcoming Conference Games with Projections

Every projection takes into account the ability of each team, home court advantage, and other factors that make for accurate predictions.

Date Away Team Away Prob to Win Home Team Home Prob to Win Game Projection
2/22 WI Milwaukee 59.2% Detroit 40.9% WI Milwaukee wins by 3
2/22 WI Green Bay 12.7% Oakland 87.3% Oakland wins by 12
2/23 Wright St 68.3% IUPUI 31.7% Wright St wins by 6
2/23 N Kentucky 59.2% IL Chicago 40.9% N Kentucky wins by 3
2/24 WI Green Bay 43.1% Detroit 56.9% Detroit wins by 3
2/24 WI Milwaukee 20.6% Oakland 79.4% Oakland wins by 9
2/24 Cleveland St 41.8% Youngstown St 58.2% Youngstown St wins by 3
2/25 N Kentucky 79.4% IUPUI 20.6% N Kentucky wins by 9
2/25 Wright St 51.5% IL Chicago 48.5% Wright St wins by 1

Projections in Other Conferences

For other conferences, please see below.

AAC ACC America East Atlantic 10
Atlantic Sun Big 12 Big East Big Sky
Big South Big Ten Big West Colonial
Conference USA Horizon Ivy League MAAC
MAC MEAC MWC MVC
NEC OVC Pac-12 Patriot
Southern SEC Summit Southland
Southwestern Sun Belt WAC WCC