Houston Cougars Projections 2018


These are the latest projections for the Houston Cougars. All of these projections for Houston are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 2/19/2018.

Houston Record and Rankings

Record: 21-5
Projected Final Record: 24.2-5.8

AAC Conference Record: 11-3
Projected Final AAC Record: 14.2-3.8
Projected Final Rank in the AAC: 2

Houston Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 22
RPI Rank: 20
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: 7 Seed

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 5-3 2-0 4-1 9-1
Win % by Tier 0.625 1.000 0.800 0.900

Our current projections give the Houston Cougars a 86.0% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 14.0% chance at an NIT bid and a 0.0% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Houston’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.8%
NCAA #4 Seed 2.2%
NCAA #5 Seed 8.6%
NCAA #6 Seed 17.2%
NCAA #7 Seed 16.6%
NCAA #8 Seed 14.8%
NCAA #9 Seed 12.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 7.6%
NCAA #11 Seed 6.2%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 6.0%
NIT #2 Seed 4.4%
NIT #3 Seed 2.0%
NIT #4 Seed 1.6%
NIT #5 Seed 0.0%
NIT #6 Seed 0.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Houston Cougars. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Houston Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/10 298 McNeese St Home W 81-53
11/17 230 Drexel Lynchburg, VA L 80-84
11/18 199 Liberty Away W 68-66
11/19 106 Wake Forest Lynchburg, VA W 78-73
11/25 347 Incarnate Word Home W 97-58
11/29 239 New Orleans Home W 75-66
12/2 25 Arkansas Home W 91-65
12/6 228 Fairfield Home W 88-66
12/9 120 St Louis Away W 77-58
12/13 57 LSU Away L 77-80
12/17 285 Prairie View Home W 92-72
12/20 55 Providence Uncasville, CT W 70-59
12/28 287 South Florida Away W 79-60
12/30 75 Temple Home W 76-73
1/4 17 Wichita St Away L 63-81
1/11 99 Tulsa Home W 104-71
1/14 256 East Carolina Away W 65-49
1/17 174 Tulane Away L 72-81
1/20 17 Wichita St Home W 73-59
1/28 287 South Florida Home W 63-40
1/31 3 Cincinnati Away L 70-80
2/3 68 UCF Away W 69-65
2/8 88 SMU Home W 67-58
2/11 174 Tulane Home W 73-42
2/15 3 Cincinnati Home W 67-62
2/18 75 Temple Away W 80-59
2/22 112 Memphis Away 68.3%
2/25 256 East Carolina Home 98.5%
2/28 88 SMU Away 57.1%
3/4 129 Connecticut Home 91.8%