Houston Cougars Projections 2018


These are the latest projections for the Houston Cougars. All of these projections for Houston are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 11/12/2018.

Houston Record and Rankings

Record: 1-0
Projected Final Record: 25.9-5.1

AAC Conference Record: 0-0
Projected Final AAC Record: 14.8-3.2
Projected Final Rank in the AAC: 1

Houston Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 33
RPI Rank: 218
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-0 0-0 0-0 1-0
Win % by Tier 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.000

Our current projections give the Houston Cougars a 34.0% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 57.2% chance at an NIT bid and a 8.8% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Houston’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.8%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #4 Seed 1.4%
NCAA #5 Seed 2.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 1.4%
NCAA #7 Seed 2.6%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #10 Seed 2.4%
NCAA #11 Seed 2.2%
NCAA #12 Seed 17.4%
NCAA #13 Seed 1.2%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 3.2%
NIT #2 Seed 19.8%
NIT #3 Seed 18.4%
NIT #4 Seed 10.4%
NIT #5 Seed 5.2%
NIT #6 Seed 0.2%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Houston Cougars. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Houston Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/10 348 Alabama A&M Home W 101-54
11/14 268 Rice Home 98.6%
11/19 342 Northwestern LA Home 99.2%
11/24 93 BYU Away 59.8%
11/28 324 UTRGV Home 98.9%
12/1 15 Oregon Home 44.1%
12/4 283 Lamar Home 98.5%
12/8 87 Oklahoma St Away 56.7%
12/12 51 LSU Home 73.3%
12/16 146 St Louis Home 91.8%
12/20 165 Utah St Home 93%
12/23 349 Coppin St Home 99.6%
12/29 204 NJIT Home 93%
1/2 107 Tulsa Home 86.8%
1/6 105 Memphis Home 85%
1/9 116 Temple Away 63.4%
1/12 88 Wichita St Home 84.5%
1/16 210 SMU Away 82.1%
1/19 256 South Florida Away 91.9%
1/23 292 East Carolina Home 98.7%
1/27 107 Tulsa Away 62.8%
1/31 116 Temple Home 87%
2/7 131 UCF Away 69.9%
2/10 52 Cincinnati Home 78.2%
2/14 160 Connecticut Away 77.2%
2/17 215 Tulane Away 82.6%
2/23 256 South Florida Home 98.5%
2/27 292 East Carolina Away 92.6%
3/2 131 UCF Home 91.7%
3/7 210 SMU Home 93.8%
3/10 52 Cincinnati Away 52.6%