Illinois State Redbirds Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the Illinois State Redbirds. All of these projections for Illinois St are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 1/20/2019.

Illinois St Record and Rankings

Record: 11-8
Projected Final Record: 17.2-13.8

MVC Conference Record: 4-2
Projected Final MVC Record: 10.2-7.8
Projected Final Rank in the MVC: 4

Illinois St Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 159
RPI Rank: 158
NET Rank: 197
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-3 0-1 3-2 7-2
Win % by Tier 0.000 0.000 0.600 0.778

Our current projections give the Illinois State Redbirds a 9.6% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 4.2% chance at an NIT bid and a 86.2% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Illinois St’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #14 Seed 2.2%
NCAA #15 Seed 5.4%
NCAA #16 Seed 1.2%
NIT #1 Seed 0.0%
NIT #2 Seed 0.0%
NIT #3 Seed 0.2%
NIT #4 Seed 0.2%
NIT #5 Seed 0.0%
NIT #6 Seed 0.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.8%
NIT #8 Seed 3.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Illinois State Redbirds. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Illinois St Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 273 FL Gulf Coast Home W 74-66
11/10 85 Belmont Away L 89-100
11/13 342 Chicago St Home W 75-71
11/19 94 Georgia Neutral L 68-80
11/20 158 Akron Neutal W 73-68
11/21 160 Boise St Neutal W 73-70
11/24 No Rank Lindenwood Home W 79-62
11/28 112 BYU Home W 92-89
12/1 151 San Diego St Home L 65-75
12/5 217 IL Chicago Away L 75-94
12/8 23 Mississippi Home L 74-81
12/16 313 Cleveland St Home W 88-77
12/21 46 UCF Away L 56-77
1/2 165 Valparaiso Away L 56-58
1/5 175 Evansville Home W 58-46
1/8 188 Northern Iowa Home W 70-69
1/12 100 Loyola-Chicago Away L 64-67
1/15 148 S Illinois Home W 59-58
1/19 175 Evansville Away W 78-70
1/23 218 Bradley Away 55.9%
1/27 171 Indiana St Home 63.8%
1/30 118 Drake Away 25.2%
2/2 100 Loyola-Chicago Home 42.2%
2/5 165 Valparaiso Home 60.8%
2/10 196 Missouri St Away 51.1%
2/13 188 Northern Iowa Away 49.3%
2/16 218 Bradley Home 77.2%
2/20 171 Indiana St Away 43.3%
2/24 118 Drake Home 47.8%
2/27 196 Missouri St Home 71%
3/2 148 S Illinois Away 35.9%