Indiana Hoosiers Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the Indiana Hoosiers. All of these projections for Indiana are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 1/17/2019.

Indiana Record and Rankings

Record: 12-5
Projected Final Record: 18.9-12.1

Big Ten Conference Record: 3-3
Projected Final Big Ten Record: 9.9-10.1
Projected Final Rank in the Big Ten: 8

Indiana Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 31
RPI Rank: 47
NET Rank: 30
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: 8 Seed

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 2-3 2-2 2-0 6-0
Win % by Tier 0.400 0.500 1.000 1.000

Our current projections give the Indiana Hoosiers a 84.2% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 8.8% chance at an NIT bid and a 7.0% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Indiana’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 1.6%
NCAA #2 Seed 1.6%
NCAA #3 Seed 3.8%
NCAA #4 Seed 5.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 8.4%
NCAA #6 Seed 10.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 13.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 13.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 11.2%
NCAA #10 Seed 9.6%
NCAA #11 Seed 5.6%
NCAA #12 Seed 1.0%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 3.2%
NIT #2 Seed 2.4%
NIT #3 Seed 0.6%
NIT #4 Seed 1.2%
NIT #5 Seed 1.0%
NIT #6 Seed 0.4%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Indiana Hoosiers. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Indiana Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 343 Chicago St Home W 104-55
11/9 250 Montana St Home W 80-35
11/14 17 Marquette Home W 96-73
11/18 65 Arkansas Away L 72-73
11/20 233 UT Arlington Home W 78-64
11/23 274 UC Davis Home W 76-62
11/27 5 Duke Away L 69-90
12/1 60 Northwestern Home W 68-66
12/4 86 Penn St Away W 64-62
12/8 23 Louisville Home W 68-67
12/15 49 Butler Neutal W 71-68
12/19 245 Cent Arkansas Home W 86-53
12/22 292 Jacksonville Home W 94-64
1/3 123 Illinois Home W 73-65
1/6 2 Michigan Away L 63-74
1/11 15 Maryland Away L 75-78
1/14 14 Nebraska Home L 51-66
1/19 19 Purdue Away 26.2%
1/22 60 Northwestern Away 55.1%
1/25 2 Michigan Home 32.8%
1/30 113 Rutgers Away 61.8%
2/2 4 Michigan St Away 10.8%
2/7 25 Iowa Home 58.8%
2/10 33 Ohio St Home 62.1%
2/16 45 Minnesota Away 47.1%
2/19 19 Purdue Home 53.3%
2/22 25 Iowa Away 35.5%
2/26 30 Wisconsin Home 59.2%
3/2 4 Michigan St Home 37.2%
3/7 123 Illinois Away 59.8%
3/10 113 Rutgers Home 85.9%