Iowa Hawkeyes Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the Iowa Hawkeyes. All of these projections for Iowa are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 1/20/2019.

Iowa Record and Rankings

Record: 15-3
Projected Final Record: 22.4-8.6

Big Ten Conference Record: 4-3
Projected Final Big Ten Record: 11.4-8.6
Projected Final Rank in the Big Ten: 6

Iowa Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 24
RPI Rank: 29
NET Rank: 25
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: 6 Seed

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 1-2 5-1 3-0 6-0
Win % by Tier 0.333 0.833 1.000 1.000

Our current projections give the Iowa Hawkeyes a 87.4% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 5.6% chance at an NIT bid and a 7.0% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Iowa’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 1.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 2.2%
NCAA #3 Seed 7.6%
NCAA #4 Seed 14.8%
NCAA #5 Seed 15.2%
NCAA #6 Seed 15.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 12.4%
NCAA #8 Seed 9.8%
NCAA #9 Seed 5.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 2.2%
NCAA #11 Seed 1.6%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.2%
NIT #1 Seed 1.4%
NIT #2 Seed 1.6%
NIT #3 Seed 0.8%
NIT #4 Seed 0.8%
NIT #5 Seed 0.6%
NIT #6 Seed 0.2%
NIT #7 Seed 0.2%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Iowa Hawkeyes. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Iowa Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/8 244 Missouri KC Home W 77-63
11/11 205 WI Green Bay Home W 93-82
11/15 79 Oregon Neutal W 77-69
11/16 95 Connecticut Neutal W 91-72
11/21 308 Alabama St Home W 105-78
11/27 65 Pittsburgh Home W 69-68
11/30 26 Wisconsin Home L 66-72
12/3 2 Michigan St Away L 68-90
12/6 17 Iowa St Home W 98-84
12/15 188 Northern Iowa Neutal W 77-54
12/18 281 W Carolina Home W 78-60
12/22 341 Savannah St Home W 110-64
12/29 317 Bryant Home W 72-67
1/3 15 Purdue Away L 70-86
1/6 19 Nebraska Home W 93-84
1/9 61 Northwestern Away W 73-63
1/12 39 Ohio St Home W 72-62
1/16 83 Penn St Away W 89-82
1/20 125 Illinois Home 91.4%
1/24 2 Michigan St Home 31.7%
1/27 43 Minnesota Away 53.7%
2/1 6 Michigan Home 39.9%
2/7 34 Indiana Away 44.5%
2/10 61 Northwestern Home 82.8%
2/16 126 Rutgers Away 69.1%
2/19 12 Maryland Home 52.9%
2/22 34 Indiana Home 68.7%
2/26 39 Ohio St Away 45.2%
3/2 126 Rutgers Home 90.6%
3/7 26 Wisconsin Away 35.9%
3/10 19 Nebraska Away 30.9%