Iowa Hawkeyes Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the Iowa Hawkeyes. All of these projections for Iowa are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 12/10/2018.

Iowa Record and Rankings

Record: 7-2
Projected Final Record: 19.1-11.9

Big Ten Conference Record: 0-2
Projected Final Big Ten Record: 8.2-11.8
Projected Final Rank in the Big Ten: 10

Iowa Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 34
RPI Rank: 24
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Next 4 Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-2 0-0 5-0 2-0
Win % by Tier 0.000 0.000 1.000 1.000

Our current projections give the Iowa Hawkeyes a 43.4% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 27.6% chance at an NIT bid and a 29.0% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Iowa’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #2 Seed 1.6%
NCAA #3 Seed 1.4%
NCAA #4 Seed 2.6%
NCAA #5 Seed 3.6%
NCAA #6 Seed 6.4%
NCAA #7 Seed 4.4%
NCAA #8 Seed 5.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 6.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 5.8%
NCAA #11 Seed 5.4%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.8%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 5.4%
NIT #2 Seed 5.0%
NIT #3 Seed 4.8%
NIT #4 Seed 4.2%
NIT #5 Seed 5.0%
NIT #6 Seed 2.0%
NIT #7 Seed 1.2%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Iowa Hawkeyes. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Iowa Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/8 305 Missouri KC Home W 77-63
11/11 175 WI Green Bay Home W 93-82
11/15 51 Oregon Neutal W 77-69
11/16 82 Connecticut Neutal W 91-72
11/21 340 Alabama St Home W 105-78
11/27 118 Pittsburgh Home W 69-68
11/30 11 Wisconsin Home L 66-72
12/3 8 Michigan St Away L 68-90
12/6 33 Iowa St Home W 98-84
12/15 186 Northern Iowa Neutal 89.8%
12/18 276 W Carolina Home 98.5%
12/22 331 Savannah St Home 98.9%
12/29 339 Bryant Home 98.9%
1/3 27 Purdue Away 32.8%
1/6 16 Nebraska Home 47.8%
1/9 49 Northwestern Away 44.5%
1/12 13 Ohio St Home 45.2%
1/16 50 Penn St Away 44.1%
1/20 125 Illinois Home 86.4%
1/24 8 Michigan St Home 40.5%
1/27 43 Minnesota Away 42.5%
2/1 2 Michigan Home 32.8%
2/7 21 Indiana Away 25.7%
2/10 49 Northwestern Home 69.1%
2/16 98 Rutgers Away 56.9%
2/19 28 Maryland Home 58.8%
2/22 21 Indiana Home 52.9%
2/26 13 Ohio St Away 19.6%
3/2 98 Rutgers Home 82.8%
3/7 11 Wisconsin Away 17.9%
3/10 16 Nebraska Away 23.3%