Iowa State Cyclones Projections 2018


These are the latest projections for the Iowa State Cyclones. All of these projections for Iowa St are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 2/21/2018.

Iowa St Record and Rankings

Record: 13-13
Projected Final Record: 14.2-15.8

Big 12 Conference Record: 4-10
Projected Final Big 12 Record: 5.2-12.8
Projected Final Rank in the Big 12: 10

Iowa St Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 81
RPI Rank: 101
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 3-9 3-3 2-0 5-1
Win % by Tier 0.250 0.500 1.000 0.833

Our current projections give the Iowa State Cyclones a 1.0% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 18.2% chance at an NIT bid and a 80.8% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Iowa St’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 3.0%
NIT #2 Seed 4.0%
NIT #3 Seed 6.6%
NIT #4 Seed 4.0%
NIT #5 Seed 0.6%
NIT #6 Seed 0.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Iowa State Cyclones. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Iowa St Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/10 38 Missouri Away L 59-74
11/13 214 WI Milwaukee Home L 56-74
11/16 233 Appalachian St Conway, SC W 104-98
11/17 99 Tulsa Conway, SC W 80-78
11/19 59 Boise St Conway, SC W 75-64
11/25 273 W Illinois Home W 70-45
12/4 234 N Illinois Home W 94-80
12/7 110 Iowa Home W 84-78
12/10 339 Alcorn St Home W 78-58
12/16 144 Northern Iowa Des Moines, IA W 76-65
12/20 345 MD E Shore Home W 55-49
12/29 26 Kansas St Home L 75-91
1/1 39 Texas Home L 70-74
1/6 61 Oklahoma St Away L 87-96
1/9 11 Kansas Away L 78-83
1/13 30 Baylor Home W 75-65
1/17 21 TCU Away L 73-96
1/20 9 Texas Tech Home W 70-52
1/22 39 Texas Away L 57-73
1/27 15 Tennessee Home L 45-68
1/31 16 West Virginia Home W 93-77
2/3 30 Baylor Away L 67-81
2/7 9 Texas Tech Away L 58-76
2/10 37 Oklahoma Home W 88-80
2/13 11 Kansas Home L 77-83
2/17 26 Kansas St Away L 66-78
2/21 21 TCU Home 38.2%
2/24 16 West Virginia Away 14.1%
2/27 61 Oklahoma St Home 53.3%
3/2 37 Oklahoma Away 18.2%