IPFW Mastodons Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the IPFW Mastodons. All of these projections for PFW are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 1/20/2019.

PFW Record and Rankings

Record: 12-9
Projected Final Record: 17.8-13.2

Summit Conference Record: 4-2
Projected Final Summit Record: 9.8-6.2
Projected Final Rank in the Summit: 3

PFW Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 207
RPI Rank: 205
NET Rank: 204
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-2 0-2 1-1 8-4
Win % by Tier 0.000 0.000 0.500 0.667

Our current projections give the IPFW Mastodons a 9.2% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 0.0% chance at an NIT bid and a 90.8% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account PFW’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 3.2%
NCAA #16 Seed 6.0%
NIT #1 Seed 0.0%
NIT #2 Seed 0.0%
NIT #3 Seed 0.0%
NIT #4 Seed 0.0%
NIT #5 Seed 0.0%
NIT #6 Seed 0.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the IPFW Mastodons. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

PFW Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 96 UCLA Away L 71-96
11/8 No Rank Earlham Home W 112-51
11/11 39 Ohio St Away L 61-107
11/13 No Rank Manchester Home W 111-65
11/16 70 Dayton Away L 80-91
11/20 340 S Carolina St Home W 72-68
11/23 174 Samford Home L 66-74
11/25 313 Cleveland St Away W 82-79
11/28 222 E Illinois Away W 104-60
12/1 244 Missouri KC Home L 73-90
12/5 158 Akron Home W 68-65
12/8 180 Miami OH Away L 79-85
12/15 134 Austin Peay Away L 68-95
12/18 193 IUPUI Home W 87-77
12/20 No Rank Siena Hts Home W 106-45
12/28 300 North Dakota Away W 84-73
12/30 251 N Dakota St Away W 90-87
1/3 141 S Dakota St Home W 104-88
1/10 271 Oral Roberts Home W 94-69
1/13 224 South Dakota Away L 73-87
1/19 309 W Illinois Away L 58-87
1/24 187 NE Omaha Home 51.8%
1/26 307 Denver Home 80.6%
1/30 224 South Dakota Home 59.2%
2/2 271 Oral Roberts Away 55.5%
2/7 309 W Illinois Home 80.4%
2/14 307 Denver Away 59.8%
2/16 187 NE Omaha Away 35.5%
2/21 141 S Dakota St Away 18.4%
2/28 300 North Dakota Home 76.7%
3/2 251 N Dakota St Home 65.6%