Ivy League Basketball Projections 2018-2019


These are the latest Ivy League Conference projections based on our NCAA College Basketball Ratings. These projections for the Ivy League are based on actual results of previous games and our predicted results for games upcoming in the future. The rank (or seed) for each team is only based upon their projected finish in the conference. Our latest update to these projections was done on 2/21/2019.

Ivy League Projected Standings

Rank Team All Games Conference Games
Actual Projected Actual Projected
Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses
1 Yale 17 4 21.6 5.4 7 1 11.6 2.4
2 Harvard 13 8 16.4 10.6 6 2 9.4 4.6
3 Princeton 13 8 16.4 10.6 5 3 8.4 5.6
4 Cornell 13 11 14.9 15.1 5 3 6.9 7.1
5 Penn 15 9 18.8 11.2 3 5 6.8 7.2
6 Brown 15 9 18.5 11.5 3 5 6.5 7.5
7 Dartmouth 11 13 13.1 16.9 2 6 4.1 9.9
8 Columbia 6 16 7.3 20.7 1 7 2.3 11.7

Projected Ivy League Tournament Bids

Our full list of NCAA Tournament and NIT Tournament projections can be found here. The below list contains our latest NCAA Tournament projections for teams within the Ivy League Conference. The “Bracket Rating” is based on a proprietary formula that projects a team’s bracket seeding by the NCAA Tournament committee.

Team Seed Bracket Rating
Yale 13 3.638

Projected Ivy League Regular Season Finish

Based on 100 simulations, this is the projected place where each team finishes in the Ivy League Conference standings.

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Top 8
Yale 88% 10% 2% 0% 100%
Harvard 9% 60% 22% 8% 100%
Princeton 3% 22% 50% 14% 100%
Cornell 0% 2% 10% 31% 100%
Penn 0% 3% 11% 25% 100%
Brown 0% 3% 5% 20% 100%
Dartmouth 0% 0% 0% 2% 100%
Columbia 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%

Ivy League Conference Tournament Predictions

Below are the odds to advance to each stage of the Ivy League Conference Tournament. The table below is based on 1,000 simulations. The Ivy League Conference Championship is a four game tournament that takes place at the University of Pennsylvania. The top four teams at the end of the regular season advance to the tournament.

Regular Season Champion: TBD
Tournament Site: Payne Whitney Gymnasium (New Haven, CT)
Semifinals: March 16th, 2019
Finals: March 17th, 2019

Seed Team To Advance To
Semis Finals To Win
1
Yale
100%
69.5%
44.2%
2
Harvard
100%
56.6%
27.4%
3
Princeton
85%
36.6%
12.7%
4
Cornell
15%
3.1%
0.6%
5
Penn
80%
27.4%
12.5%
6
Brown
20%
6.8%
2.6%
7
Dartmouth
0%
0%
0%
8
Columbia
0%
0%
0%

Ivy League Upcoming Conference Games with Projections

Every projection takes into account the ability of each team, home court advantage, and other factors that make for accurate predictions.

Date Away Team Away Prob to Win Home Team Home Prob to Win Game Projection
2/22 Harvard 52.9% Brown 47.1% Harvard wins by 1
2/22 Columbia 12.5% Penn 87.5% Penn wins by 12
2/22 Cornell 26.7% Princeton 73.3% Princeton wins by 7
2/22 Dartmouth 8.9% Yale 91.1% Yale wins by 13
2/23 Columbia 15.3% Princeton 84.7% Princeton wins by 11
2/23 Cornell 19.1% Penn 80.9% Penn wins by 9
2/23 Dartmouth 24.3% Brown 75.7% Brown wins by 8
2/23 Harvard 23.8% Yale 76.2% Yale wins by 8
3/1 Columbia 16% Brown 84% Brown wins by 10
3/1 Penn 35.9% Harvard 64.1% Harvard wins by 5
3/1 Cornell 11.9% Yale 88.1% Yale wins by 12
3/1 Princeton 53.7% Dartmouth 46.3% Princeton wins by 1
3/2 Cornell 29% Brown 71% Brown wins by 7
3/2 Princeton 25.7% Harvard 74.3% Harvard wins by 7
3/2 Columbia 7% Yale 93% Yale wins by 16
3/2 Penn 58.5% Dartmouth 41.5% Penn wins by 3
3/8 Brown 38.2% Princeton 61.8% Princeton wins by 4
3/8 Harvard 58.8% Cornell 41.2% Harvard wins by 3

Projections in Other Conferences

For other conferences, please see below.

AAC ACC America East Atlantic 10
Atlantic Sun Big 12 Big East Big Sky
Big South Big Ten Big West Colonial
Conference USA Horizon Ivy League MAAC
MAC MEAC MWC MVC
NEC OVC Pac-12 Patriot
Southern SEC Summit Southland
Southwestern Sun Belt WAC WCC