Kansas Jayhawks Projections 2018


These are the latest projections for the Kansas Jayhawks. All of these projections for Kansas are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 2/21/2018.

Kansas Record and Rankings

Record: 22-6
Projected Final Record: 23.8-7.2

Big 12 Conference Record: 11-4
Projected Final Big 12 Record: 12.8-5.2
Projected Final Rank in the Big 12: 1

Kansas Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 11
RPI Rank: 6
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: 1 Seed

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 10-4 6-1 2-1 4-0
Win % by Tier 0.714 0.857 0.667 1.000

Our current projections give the Kansas Jayhawks a 100.0% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 0.0% chance at an NIT bid and a 0.0% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Kansas’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 37.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 32.8%
NCAA #3 Seed 16.2%
NCAA #4 Seed 7.8%
NCAA #5 Seed 4.4%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 0.0%
NIT #2 Seed 0.0%
NIT #3 Seed 0.0%
NIT #4 Seed 0.0%
NIT #5 Seed 0.0%
NIT #6 Seed 0.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Kansas Jayhawks. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Kansas Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/10 190 Tennessee St Home W 92-56
11/14 28 Kentucky Chicago, IL W 65-61
11/17 74 S Dakota St Home W 98-64
11/21 301 TX Southern Home W 114-71
11/24 154 Oakland Home W 102-59
11/28 109 Toledo Home W 96-58
12/2 49 Syracuse Miami, FL W 76-60
12/6 69 Washington Kansas City, MO L 65-74
12/10 34 Arizona St Home L 85-95
12/16 42 Nebraska Away W 73-72
12/18 255 NE Omaha Home W 109-64
12/21 90 Stanford Sacramento, CA W 75-54
12/29 39 Texas Away W 92-86
1/2 9 Texas Tech Home L 73-85
1/6 21 TCU Away W 88-84
1/9 81 Iowa St Home W 83-78
1/13 26 Kansas St Home W 73-72
1/15 16 West Virginia Away W 71-66
1/20 30 Baylor Home W 70-67
1/23 37 Oklahoma Away L 80-85
1/27 27 Texas A&M Home W 79-68
1/29 26 Kansas St Away W 70-56
2/3 61 Oklahoma St Home L 79-84
2/6 21 TCU Home W 71-64
2/10 30 Baylor Away L 64-80
2/13 81 Iowa St Away W 83-77
2/17 16 West Virginia Home W 77-69
2/19 37 Oklahoma Home W 104-74
2/24 9 Texas Tech Away 38.2%
2/26 39 Texas Home 76.7%
3/3 61 Oklahoma St Away 61.8%