Kentucky Wildcats Projections 2018


These are the latest projections for the Kentucky Wildcats. All of these projections for Kentucky are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 11/12/2018.

Kentucky Record and Rankings

Record: 1-1
Projected Final Record: 23.0-8.0

SEC Conference Record: 0-0
Projected Final SEC Record: 12.9-5.1
Projected Final Rank in the SEC: 2

Kentucky Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 11
RPI Rank: 130
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: 3 Seed

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-1 0-0 0-0 1-0
Win % by Tier 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.000

Our current projections give the Kentucky Wildcats a 98.0% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 1.2% chance at an NIT bid and a 0.8% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Kentucky’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 59.8%
NCAA #2 Seed 20.2%
NCAA #3 Seed 3.6%
NCAA #4 Seed 1.2%
NCAA #5 Seed 1.6%
NCAA #6 Seed 2.4%
NCAA #7 Seed 1.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 1.2%
NCAA #9 Seed 1.2%
NCAA #10 Seed 1.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 2.0%
NCAA #12 Seed 1.6%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.8%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.2%
NIT #1 Seed 0.4%
NIT #2 Seed 0.2%
NIT #3 Seed 0.0%
NIT #4 Seed 0.2%
NIT #5 Seed 0.4%
NIT #6 Seed 0.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Kentucky Wildcats. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Kentucky Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 1 Duke Neutral L 84-118
11/9 158 S Illinois Home W 71-59
11/14 248 North Dakota Home 98.9%
11/18 327 VMI Home 99.5%
11/21 154 Winthrop Home 98.5%
11/23 258 Tennessee St Home 98.8%
11/28 240 Monmouth NJ Home 98.7%
12/1 68 UNC Greensboro Home 87.8%
12/8 27 Seton Hall Neutal 69.6%
12/15 43 Utah Home 87.3%
12/22 5 North Carolina Neutral 45.8%
12/29 38 Louisville Away 61.5%
1/5 57 Alabama Away 64.5%
1/8 70 Texas A&M Home 90.3%
1/12 30 Vanderbilt Home 81.6%
1/15 49 Georgia Away 62.8%
1/19 19 Auburn Away 55.5%
1/22 32 Mississippi St Home 83.8%
1/26 6 Kansas Home 60.8%
1/29 30 Vanderbilt Away 56.9%
2/2 48 Florida Away 63.4%
2/5 112 South Carolina Home 92.6%
2/9 32 Mississippi St Away 59.5%
2/12 51 LSU Home 87.3%
2/16 7 Tennessee Home 57.3%
2/19 89 Missouri Away 74.8%
2/23 19 Auburn Home 79.9%
2/26 58 Arkansas Home 86.8%
3/2 7 Tennessee Away 35.9%
3/5 91 Mississippi Away 72.5%
3/9 48 Florida Home 86.6%