Kentucky Wildcats Projections 2018


These are the latest projections for the Kentucky Wildcats. All of these projections for Kentucky are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 2/21/2018.

Kentucky Record and Rankings

Record: 19-9
Projected Final Record: 20.8-10.2

SEC Conference Record: 8-7
Projected Final SEC Record: 9.8-8.2
Projected Final Rank in the SEC: 4

Kentucky Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 28
RPI Rank: 17
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: 5 Seed

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 4-7 7-2 5-0 3-0
Win % by Tier 0.364 0.778 1.000 1.000

Our current projections give the Kentucky Wildcats a 97.6% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 2.4% chance at an NIT bid and a 0.0% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Kentucky’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 1.2%
NCAA #3 Seed 10.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 20.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 27.4%
NCAA #6 Seed 16.2%
NCAA #7 Seed 9.6%
NCAA #8 Seed 6.8%
NCAA #9 Seed 3.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 1.8%
NCAA #11 Seed 1.4%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 0.8%
NIT #2 Seed 0.8%
NIT #3 Seed 0.4%
NIT #4 Seed 0.0%
NIT #5 Seed 0.4%
NIT #6 Seed 0.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Kentucky Wildcats. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Kentucky Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/10 101 Utah Valley Home W 73-63
11/12 63 Vermont Home W 73-69
11/14 11 Kansas Chicago, IL L 61-65
11/17 67 ETSU Home W 78-61
11/20 203 Troy Home W 70-62
11/22 161 IPFW Home W 86-67
11/26 201 IL Chicago Home W 107-73
12/2 153 Harvard Home W 79-70
12/9 220 Monmouth NJ New York, NY W 93-76
12/16 32 Virginia Tech Home W 93-86
12/23 43 UCLA New Orleans, LA L 75-83
12/29 41 Louisville Home W 90-61
12/31 58 Georgia Home W 66-61
1/3 57 LSU Away W 74-71
1/6 15 Tennessee Away L 65-76
1/9 27 Texas A&M Home W 74-73
1/13 84 Vanderbilt Away W 74-67
1/16 71 South Carolina Away L 68-76
1/20 35 Florida Home L 64-66
1/23 50 Mississippi St Home W 78-65
1/27 16 West Virginia Away W 83-76
1/30 84 Vanderbilt Home W 83-81
2/3 38 Missouri Away L 60-69
2/6 15 Tennessee Home L 59-61
2/10 27 Texas A&M Away L 74-85
2/14 8 Auburn Away L 66-76
2/17 40 Alabama Home W 81-71
2/20 25 Arkansas Away W 87-72
2/24 38 Missouri Home 62.8%
2/28 97 Mississippi Home 84.2%
3/3 35 Florida Away 35.9%