Liberty Flames Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the Liberty Flames. All of these projections for Liberty are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 1/20/2019.

Liberty Record and Rankings

Record: 16-4
Projected Final Record: 24.4-6.6

Atlantic Sun Conference Record: 5-0
Projected Final Atlantic Sun Record: 13.4-2.6
Projected Final Rank in the Atlantic Sun: 2

Liberty Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 75
RPI Rank: 134
NET Rank: 45
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-1 3-1 1-2 9-0
Win % by Tier 0.000 0.750 0.333 1.000

Our current projections give the Liberty Flames a 22.6% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 43.6% chance at an NIT bid and a 33.8% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Liberty’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #12 Seed 9.8%
NCAA #13 Seed 7.6%
NCAA #14 Seed 3.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 1.2%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 0.4%
NIT #2 Seed 1.6%
NIT #3 Seed 1.0%
NIT #4 Seed 4.0%
NIT #5 Seed 7.4%
NIT #6 Seed 15.4%
NIT #7 Seed 11.6%
NIT #8 Seed 2.2%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Liberty Flames. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Liberty Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/8 No Rank ME Ft Kent Home W 89-40
11/13 No Rank Trevecca Naz Home W 93-40
11/16 116 Kent Away W 77-70
11/19 106 Vanderbilt Away L 70-79
11/23 352 Alcorn St Home W 76-54
11/25 341 Savannah St Home W 82-56
11/28 277 Navy Away W 76-58
12/1 87 Georgia St Home W 78-52
12/3 86 Georgetown Away L 78-88
12/11 340 S Carolina St Home W 79-55
12/15 No Rank Kentucky Chr Home W 96-55
12/18 49 Alabama Neutral L 75-84
12/21 308 Alabama St Neutal W 73-55
12/22 134 Austin Peay Neutral L 66-75
12/29 96 UCLA Away W 73-58
1/5 273 FL Gulf Coast Away W 81-63
1/9 345 Stetson Away W 71-53
1/12 287 Jacksonville Home W 69-53
1/16 348 Kennesaw Away W 62-41
1/19 172 North Florida Home W 70-64
1/21 290 North Alabama Home 97.1%
1/27 287 Jacksonville Away 84%
1/29 50 Lipscomb Home 48.2%
2/2 153 NJIT Home 84%
2/5 345 Stetson Home 98.7%
2/9 273 FL Gulf Coast Home 93%
2/13 50 Lipscomb Away 29%
2/16 290 North Alabama Away 84.5%
2/23 172 North Florida Away 62.8%
2/26 348 Kennesaw Home 98.7%
3/1 153 NJIT Away 61.8%