Liberty Flames Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the Liberty Flames. All of these projections for Liberty are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 1/17/2019.

Liberty Record and Rankings

Record: 15-4
Projected Final Record: 24.2-6.8

Atlantic Sun Conference Record: 4-0
Projected Final Atlantic Sun Record: 13.2-2.8
Projected Final Rank in the Atlantic Sun: 2

Liberty Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 69
RPI Rank: 131
NET Rank: 44
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 1-1 2-2 1-1 8-0
Win % by Tier 0.500 0.500 0.500 1.000

Our current projections give the Liberty Flames a 31.4% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 49.8% chance at an NIT bid and a 18.8% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Liberty’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #12 Seed 17.4%
NCAA #13 Seed 8.6%
NCAA #14 Seed 2.4%
NCAA #15 Seed 1.4%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 1.2%
NIT #2 Seed 2.0%
NIT #3 Seed 1.8%
NIT #4 Seed 9.8%
NIT #5 Seed 13.2%
NIT #6 Seed 13.8%
NIT #7 Seed 6.6%
NIT #8 Seed 1.4%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Liberty Flames. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Liberty Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/8 No Rank ME Ft Kent Home W 89-40
11/13 No Rank Trevecca Naz Home W 93-40
11/16 124 Kent Away W 77-70
11/19 106 Vanderbilt Away L 70-79
11/23 351 Alcorn St Home W 76-54
11/25 341 Savannah St Home W 82-56
11/28 268 Navy Away W 76-58
12/1 71 Georgia St Home W 78-52
12/3 85 Georgetown Away L 78-88
12/11 338 S Carolina St Home W 79-55
12/15 No Rank Kentucky Chr Home W 96-55
12/18 50 Alabama Neutral L 75-84
12/21 315 Alabama St Neutal W 73-55
12/22 127 Austin Peay Neutral L 66-75
12/29 83 UCLA Away W 73-58
1/5 285 FL Gulf Coast Away W 81-63
1/9 347 Stetson Away W 71-53
1/12 292 Jacksonville Home W 69-53
1/16 344 Kennesaw Away W 62-41
1/19 179 North Florida Home 85%
1/21 294 North Alabama Home 93.8%
1/27 292 Jacksonville Away 82.8%
1/29 47 Lipscomb Home 50.7%
2/2 153 NJIT Home 83%
2/5 347 Stetson Home 98.7%
2/9 285 FL Gulf Coast Home 92.6%
2/13 47 Lipscomb Away 31.3%
2/16 294 North Alabama Away 83%
2/23 179 North Florida Away 62.8%
2/26 344 Kennesaw Home 98.5%
3/1 153 NJIT Away 60.5%