Longwood Lancers Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the Longwood Lancers. All of these projections for Longwood are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 1/17/2019.

Longwood Record and Rankings

Record: 12-7
Projected Final Record: 18.2-12.8

Big South Conference Record: 2-2
Projected Final Big South Record: 8.2-7.8
Projected Final Rank in the Big South: 7

Longwood Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 221
RPI Rank: 266
NET Rank: 213
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-1 0-1 2-2 7-3
Win % by Tier 0.000 0.000 0.500 0.700

Our current projections give the Longwood Lancers a 4.8% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 0.0% chance at an NIT bid and a 95.2% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Longwood’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 1.4%
NCAA #16 Seed 3.4%
NIT #1 Seed 0.0%
NIT #2 Seed 0.0%
NIT #3 Seed 0.0%
NIT #4 Seed 0.0%
NIT #5 Seed 0.0%
NIT #6 Seed 0.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Longwood Lancers. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Longwood Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 No Rank Randolph Col Home W 84-56
11/9 228 Richmond Away W 63-58
11/13 352 MD E Shore Away W 66-63
11/16 349 Delaware St Home W 89-73
11/19 260 Charlotte Away L 39-42
11/23 267 Fairfield Neutal W 67-65
11/24 301 Denver Neutral L 62-64
11/25 157 Seattle Away L 50-70
12/1 318 VMI Home W 65-45
12/7 No Rank Frostburg St Home W 68-65
12/9 141 Duquesne Away L 71-80
12/13 No Rank Averett Home W 81-57
12/17 220 Cornell Away L 64-70
12/21 347 Stetson Home W 77-63
12/29 203 Citadel Away W 110-94
1/5 118 Radford Away L 64-71
1/10 353 UNC Asheville Home W 67-62
1/12 275 Charleston So Home L 91-101
1/16 161 Winthrop Away W 75-61
1/19 225 Presbyterian Away 40.9%
1/21 118 Radford Home 36.6%
1/24 209 High Point Home 56.9%
1/26 328 SC Upstate Away 61.8%
1/30 293 Hampton Home 73.3%
2/2 227 Campbell Away 42.2%
2/7 168 Gardner Webb Home 45.2%
2/13 209 High Point Away 38.2%
2/16 328 SC Upstate Home 82.6%
2/21 293 Hampton Away 52.2%
2/23 227 Campbell Home 60.1%
3/2 168 Gardner Webb Away 26.2%