Louisiana Lafayette Projections 2018


These are the latest projections for the Louisiana Lafayette. All of these projections for ULL are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 2/19/2018.

ULL Record and Rankings

Record: 23-4
Projected Final Record: 26.3-4.7

Sun Belt Conference Record: 13-1
Projected Final Sun Belt Record: 16.3-1.7
Projected Final Rank in the Sun Belt: 1

ULL Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 62
RPI Rank: 41
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: 12 Seed

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-1 0-2 9-1 12-0
Win % by Tier 0.000 0.000 0.900 1.000

Our current projections give the Louisiana Lafayette a 53.6% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 46.2% chance at an NIT bid and a 0.2% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account ULL’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #11 Seed 4.8%
NCAA #12 Seed 45.0%
NCAA #13 Seed 3.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 3.2%
NIT #2 Seed 4.6%
NIT #3 Seed 3.8%
NIT #4 Seed 8.6%
NIT #5 Seed 12.0%
NIT #6 Seed 12.6%
NIT #7 Seed 1.4%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Louisiana Lafayette. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

ULL Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/10 97 Mississippi Away L 76-94
11/14 No Rank Louisiana Col Home W 113-58
11/17 276 Savannah St Home W 115-82
11/20 110 Iowa George Town, Cayman Islands W 80-71
11/21 103 Wyoming George Town, Cayman Islands L 61-70
11/22 180 Richmond George Town, Cayman Islands W 82-76
11/28 298 McNeese St Home W 89-78
12/1 172 Nicholls St Away W 105-80
12/6 No Rank Loyola NO Home W 98-56
12/12 152 Louisiana Tech Away W 75-71
12/16 239 New Orleans Home W 87-65
12/19 193 SE Louisiana Home W 82-74
12/22 12 Clemson Away L 60-89
12/29 311 Ark Little Rock Away W 77-63
12/31 292 Arkansas St Away W 88-78
1/4 233 Appalachian St Home W 78-45
1/6 232 Coastal Car Home W 81-64
1/13 215 ULM Home W 82-48
1/18 169 UT Arlington Away W 77-65
1/20 217 Texas St Away W 80-55
1/25 225 South Alabama Home W 76-57
1/27 203 Troy Home W 81-69
2/3 215 ULM Away W 80-59
2/8 135 Georgia St Away L 92-106
2/10 167 Ga Southern Away W 102-91
2/15 217 Texas St Home W 73-63
2/17 169 UT Arlington Home W 100-79
2/22 203 Troy Away 68.3%
2/24 225 South Alabama Away 79.2%
3/1 292 Arkansas St Home 93%
3/3 311 Ark Little Rock Home 93.4%