Louisiana Monroe Warhawks Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the Louisiana Monroe Warhawks. All of these projections for ULM are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 1/20/2019.

ULM Record and Rankings

Record: 10-7
Projected Final Record: 17.8-12.2

Sun Belt Conference Record: 3-2
Projected Final Sun Belt Record: 10.8-7.2
Projected Final Rank in the Sun Belt: 4

ULM Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 149
RPI Rank: 132
NET Rank: 143
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-6 0-0 1-0 8-1
Win % by Tier 0.000 0.000 1.000 0.889

Our current projections give the Louisiana Monroe Warhawks a 12.6% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 1.6% chance at an NIT bid and a 85.8% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account ULM’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #12 Seed 1.0%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #14 Seed 4.4%
NCAA #15 Seed 5.8%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.4%
NIT #1 Seed 0.0%
NIT #2 Seed 0.2%
NIT #3 Seed 0.2%
NIT #4 Seed 0.2%
NIT #5 Seed 0.4%
NIT #6 Seed 0.4%
NIT #7 Seed 0.2%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Louisiana Monroe Warhawks. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

ULM Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 323 Jackson St Away W 75-66
11/10 No Rank Millsaps Home W 94-52
11/12 36 Texas Away L 55-65
11/14 2 Michigan St Away L 59-80
11/23 335 Tennessee Tech Away L 73-79
11/27 328 Northwestern LA Away W 80-52
12/1 23 Mississippi Away L 60-83
12/11 285 Grambling Home W 72-67
12/15 257 SF Austin Home W 74-58
12/18 297 Nicholls St Home W 95-68
12/21 344 Coppin St Home W 80-63
12/28 16 LSU Away L 69-81
1/3 266 Ark Little Rock Home W 97-84
1/5 228 Arkansas St Home W 85-75
1/10 124 Ga Southern Away L 78-79
1/12 87 Georgia St Away L 73-74
1/19 167 Louisiana Home W 99-95
1/24 183 Troy Home 70.6%
1/26 276 South Alabama Home 84.5%
1/31 214 Coastal Car Away 56.5%
2/2 303 Appalachian St Away 67.2%
2/7 87 Georgia St Home 42.5%
2/8 124 Ga Southern Home 48.9%
2/16 167 Louisiana Away 43.5%
2/21 98 Texas St Away 26.2%
2/23 209 UT Arlington Away 57.5%
2/28 303 Appalachian St Home 85%
3/2 214 Coastal Car Home 74.3%
3/7 228 Arkansas St Away 60.5%
3/9 266 Ark Little Rock Away 61.8%