Louisville Cardinals Projections 2018


These are the latest projections for the Louisville Cardinals. All of these projections for Louisville are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 11/12/2018.

Louisville Record and Rankings

Record: 1-0
Projected Final Record: 16.4-13.6

ACC Conference Record: 0-0
Projected Final ACC Record: 8.3-9.7
Projected Final Rank in the ACC: 10

Louisville Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 38
RPI Rank: 218
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: 12 Seed

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-0 0-0 0-0 1-0
Win % by Tier 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.000

Our current projections give the Louisville Cardinals a 77.8% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 14.4% chance at an NIT bid and a 7.8% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Louisville’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.8%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.8%
NCAA #3 Seed 1.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 2.2%
NCAA #5 Seed 4.4%
NCAA #6 Seed 5.4%
NCAA #7 Seed 7.6%
NCAA #8 Seed 11.4%
NCAA #9 Seed 15.4%
NCAA #10 Seed 15.6%
NCAA #11 Seed 12.6%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 9.8%
NIT #2 Seed 2.0%
NIT #3 Seed 1.2%
NIT #4 Seed 1.0%
NIT #5 Seed 0.4%
NIT #6 Seed 0.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Louisville Cardinals. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Louisville Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/8 242 Nicholls St Home W 85-72
11/13 316 Southern Univ Home 98.7%
11/16 77 Vermont Home 80.4%
11/21 7 Tennessee Neutral 22.7%
11/27 12 Michigan St Home 43.3%
12/1 27 Seton Hall Away 31.7%
12/5 267 Cent Arkansas Home 98.5%
12/8 20 Indiana Away 17.4%
12/12 170 Lipscomb Home 92.2%
12/15 153 Kent Home 91.8%
12/21 309 Robert Morris Home 98.8%
12/29 11 Kentucky Home 38.5%
1/6 23 Miami FL Home 56.1%
1/9 177 Pittsburgh Away 74.8%
1/12 5 North Carolina Away 12.5%
1/16 69 Boston College Home 75.3%
1/19 96 Georgia Tech Away 56.7%
1/24 25 NC State Home 55.5%
1/26 177 Pittsburgh Home 92.6%
1/30 103 Wake Forest Away 57.1%
2/2 5 North Carolina Home 38.2%
2/4 22 Virginia Tech Away 25.2%
2/9 10 Florida St Away 16.2%
2/12 1 Duke Home 19.6%
2/16 21 Clemson Home 55.5%
2/20 26 Syracuse Away 31.3%
2/23 4 Virginia Home 37.2%
2/27 69 Boston College Away 48.2%
3/3 41 Notre Dame Home 62.5%
3/9 4 Virginia Away 11.7%