Louisville Cardinals Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the Louisville Cardinals. All of these projections for Louisville are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 1/20/2019.

Louisville Record and Rankings

Record: 13-5
Projected Final Record: 20.3-10.7

ACC Conference Record: 4-1
Projected Final ACC Record: 11.3-6.7
Projected Final Rank in the ACC: 5

Louisville Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 21
RPI Rank: 19
NET Rank: 19
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: 4 Seed

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 3-4 2-1 4-0 4-0
Win % by Tier 0.429 0.667 1.000 1.000

Our current projections give the Louisville Cardinals a 94.4% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 2.4% chance at an NIT bid and a 3.2% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Louisville’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 3.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 10.4%
NCAA #3 Seed 21.2%
NCAA #4 Seed 17.8%
NCAA #5 Seed 16.6%
NCAA #6 Seed 10.8%
NCAA #7 Seed 6.2%
NCAA #8 Seed 3.8%
NCAA #9 Seed 1.6%
NCAA #10 Seed 2.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.8%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 0.6%
NIT #2 Seed 0.4%
NIT #3 Seed 0.6%
NIT #4 Seed 0.6%
NIT #5 Seed 0.0%
NIT #6 Seed 0.2%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Louisville Cardinals. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Louisville Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/8 297 Nicholls St Home W 85-72
11/13 343 Southern Univ Home W 104-54
11/16 72 Vermont Home W 86-78
11/21 4 Tennessee Neutral L 81-92
11/23 18 Marquette Neutral L 74-77
11/27 2 Michigan St Home W 82-78
12/1 48 Seton Hall Away W 70-65
12/5 237 Cent Arkansas Home W 86-41
12/8 34 Indiana Away L 67-68
12/12 50 Lipscomb Home W 72-68
12/15 116 Kent Home W 83-70
12/21 262 Robert Morris Home W 73-59
12/29 8 Kentucky Home L 58-71
1/6 97 Miami FL Home W 90-73
1/9 65 Pittsburgh Away L 86-89
1/12 10 North Carolina Away W 83-62
1/16 123 Boston College Home W 80-70
1/19 89 Georgia Tech Away W 79-51
1/24 33 NC State Home 73.3%
1/26 65 Pittsburgh Home 87.3%
1/30 164 Wake Forest Away 81.4%
2/2 10 North Carolina Home 51.5%
2/4 11 Virginia Tech Away 25.7%
2/9 27 Florida St Away 39.2%
2/12 3 Duke Home 38.2%
2/16 44 Clemson Home 80.9%
2/20 41 Syracuse Away 50%
2/23 1 Virginia Home 34.7%
2/27 123 Boston College Away 68.3%
3/3 82 Notre Dame Home 87.3%
3/9 1 Virginia Away 10.3%