Louisville Cardinals Projections 2018


These are the latest projections for the Louisville Cardinals. All of these projections for Louisville are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 2/21/2018.

Louisville Record and Rankings

Record: 18-9
Projected Final Record: 19.3-11.7

ACC Conference Record: 8-6
Projected Final ACC Record: 9.3-8.7
Projected Final Rank in the ACC: 9

Louisville Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 41
RPI Rank: 51
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Last 4 Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 2-7 1-2 7-0 8-0
Win % by Tier 0.222 0.333 1.000 1.000

Our current projections give the Louisville Cardinals a 43.4% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 53.6% chance at an NIT bid and a 3.0% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Louisville’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.8%
NCAA #6 Seed 1.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 3.4%
NCAA #8 Seed 5.8%
NCAA #9 Seed 7.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 14.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 10.2%
NCAA #12 Seed 1.2%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 22.4%
NIT #2 Seed 17.0%
NIT #3 Seed 9.0%
NIT #4 Seed 5.0%
NIT #5 Seed 0.2%
NIT #6 Seed 0.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Louisville Cardinals. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Louisville Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/12 200 George Mason Home W 72-61
11/17 255 NE Omaha Home W 87-78
11/21 105 S Illinois Home W 84-42
11/24 208 St Francis PA Home W 84-72
11/28 7 Purdue Away L 57-66
12/3 36 Seton Hall Home L 77-79
12/6 291 Siena Home W 86-60
12/9 76 Indiana Home W 71-62
12/11 343 Bryant Home W 102-59
12/16 112 Memphis New York, NY W 81-72
12/20 149 Albany NY Home W 70-68
12/23 150 Grand Canyon Home W 74-56
12/29 28 Kentucky Away L 61-90
1/2 209 Pittsburgh Home W 77-51
1/6 12 Clemson Away L 69-74
1/10 31 Florida St Away W 73-69
1/13 32 Virginia Tech Home W 94-86
1/16 54 Notre Dame Away W 82-78
1/21 82 Boston College Home W 77-69
1/24 45 Miami FL Away L 75-78
1/27 106 Wake Forest Home W 96-77
1/31 1 Virginia Away L 64-74
2/3 31 Florida St Home L 76-80
2/5 49 Syracuse Home L 73-78
2/8 122 Georgia Tech Home W 77-54
2/11 209 Pittsburgh Away W 94-60
2/17 10 North Carolina Home L 76-93
2/21 6 Duke Away 13%
2/24 32 Virginia Tech Away 36.9%
3/1 1 Virginia Home 38.2%
3/3 44 NC State Away 43.9%