LSU Tigers Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the LSU Tigers. All of these projections for LSU are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 1/20/2019.

LSU Record and Rankings

Record: 14-3
Projected Final Record: 23.1-7.9

SEC Conference Record: 4-0
Projected Final SEC Record: 13.1-4.9
Projected Final Rank in the SEC: 2

LSU Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 16
RPI Rank: 8
NET Rank: 15
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: 4 Seed

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 1-2 7-1 3-0 3-0
Win % by Tier 0.333 0.875 1.000 1.000

Our current projections give the LSU Tigers a 91.4% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 5.0% chance at an NIT bid and a 3.6% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account LSU’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 1.8%
NCAA #2 Seed 5.8%
NCAA #3 Seed 18.8%
NCAA #4 Seed 18.4%
NCAA #5 Seed 13.8%
NCAA #6 Seed 13.2%
NCAA #7 Seed 8.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 4.6%
NCAA #9 Seed 3.4%
NCAA #10 Seed 2.6%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.8%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 0.4%
NIT #2 Seed 0.6%
NIT #3 Seed 0.8%
NIT #4 Seed 1.2%
NIT #5 Seed 0.8%
NIT #6 Seed 0.4%
NIT #7 Seed 0.4%
NIT #8 Seed 0.4%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the LSU Tigers. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

LSU Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 310 SE Louisiana Home W 94-63
11/9 53 UNC Greensboro Home W 97-91
11/13 76 Memphis Home W 85-76
11/16 136 Louisiana Tech Home W 74-67
11/22 120 Col Charleston Neutal W 67-55
11/23 27 Florida St Neutral L 76-79
11/25 73 Oklahoma St Neutral L 77-90
12/1 285 Grambling Home W 78-57
12/9 339 Incarnate Word Home W 91-50
12/12 13 Houston Away L 76-82
12/15 56 St Mary’s CA Neutal W 78-74
12/21 68 Furman Home W 75-57
12/28 149 ULM Home W 81-69
1/8 49 Alabama Home W 88-79
1/12 78 Arkansas Away W 94-88
1/15 23 Mississippi Away W 83-69
1/19 91 South Carolina Home W 89-67
1/23 94 Georgia Home 91.1%
1/26 71 Missouri Away 64.1%
1/30 122 Texas A&M Away 74.3%
2/2 78 Arkansas Home 86.6%
2/6 28 Mississippi St Away 41.8%
2/9 20 Auburn Home 58.8%
2/12 8 Kentucky Away 26.2%
2/16 94 Georgia Away 66.4%
2/20 40 Florida Home 74.8%
2/23 4 Tennessee Home 39.9%
2/26 122 Texas A&M Home 91.8%
3/2 49 Alabama Away 56.1%
3/6 40 Florida Away 49.3%
3/9 106 Vanderbilt Home 89.4%