LSU Tigers Projections 2018


These are the latest projections for the LSU Tigers. All of these projections for LSU are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 11/12/2018.

LSU Record and Rankings

Record: 2-0
Projected Final Record: 16.5-12.5

SEC Conference Record: 0-0
Projected Final SEC Record: 8.3-9.7
Projected Final Rank in the SEC: 8

LSU Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 51
RPI Rank: 32
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: 6 Seed

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-0 1-0 1-0 0-0
Win % by Tier 0.000 1.000 1.000 0.000

Our current projections give the LSU Tigers a 81.6% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 8.2% chance at an NIT bid and a 10.2% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account LSU’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 1.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #3 Seed 1.8%
NCAA #4 Seed 1.4%
NCAA #5 Seed 3.6%
NCAA #6 Seed 5.2%
NCAA #7 Seed 12.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 16.8%
NCAA #9 Seed 16.4%
NCAA #10 Seed 13.2%
NCAA #11 Seed 9.0%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.8%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 5.2%
NIT #2 Seed 1.6%
NIT #3 Seed 1.0%
NIT #4 Seed 0.0%
NIT #5 Seed 0.2%
NIT #6 Seed 0.2%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the LSU Tigers. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

LSU Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 239 SE Louisiana Home W 94-63
11/9 68 UNC Greensboro Home W 97-91
11/13 105 Memphis Home 79.7%
11/16 81 Louisiana Tech Home 75.3%
11/22 82 Col Charleston Neutal 61.6%
12/1 275 Grambling Home 97.7%
12/9 344 Incarnate Word Home 98.9%
12/12 33 Houston Away 26.7%
12/15 35 St Mary’s CA Neutral 41.9%
12/21 40 Furman Home 51.5%
12/28 227 ULM Home 93%
1/8 57 Alabama Home 60.8%
1/12 58 Arkansas Away 37.6%
1/15 91 Mississippi Away 47.1%
1/19 112 South Carolina Home 77.7%
1/23 49 Georgia Home 57.5%
1/26 89 Missouri Away 49.3%
1/30 70 Texas A&M Away 42.7%
2/2 58 Arkansas Home 58.8%
2/6 32 Mississippi St Away 27.2%
2/9 19 Auburn Home 43.7%
2/12 11 Kentucky Away 12.7%
2/16 49 Georgia Away 36.2%
2/20 48 Florida Home 58.8%
2/23 7 Tennessee Home 31.7%
2/26 70 Texas A&M Home 64.5%
3/2 57 Alabama Away 39.2%
3/6 48 Florida Away 37.2%
3/9 30 Vanderbilt Home 46%