LSU Tigers Projections 2018


These are the latest projections for the LSU Tigers. All of these projections for LSU are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 2/21/2018.

LSU Record and Rankings

Record: 16-11
Projected Final Record: 17.4-12.6

SEC Conference Record: 7-8
Projected Final SEC Record: 8.4-9.6
Projected Final Rank in the SEC: 9

LSU Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 57
RPI Rank: 75
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Last 4 Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 6-5 2-5 2-1 6-0
Win % by Tier 0.545 0.286 0.667 1.000

Our current projections give the LSU Tigers a 39.6% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 40.8% chance at an NIT bid and a 19.6% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account LSU’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #6 Seed 3.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 5.2%
NCAA #8 Seed 7.2%
NCAA #9 Seed 9.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 8.2%
NCAA #11 Seed 5.8%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 13.6%
NIT #2 Seed 10.4%
NIT #3 Seed 8.0%
NIT #4 Seed 4.6%
NIT #5 Seed 3.6%
NIT #6 Seed 0.6%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the LSU Tigers. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

LSU Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/10 339 Alcorn St Home W 99-59
11/16 294 Samford Home W 105-86
11/20 20 Michigan Lahaina, HI W 77-75
11/21 54 Notre Dame Lahaina, HI L 53-92
11/22 47 Marquette Lahaina, HI L 84-94
11/29 303 TN Martin Home W 84-60
12/10 246 UNC Wilmington Home W 97-84
12/13 22 Houston Home W 80-77
12/16 115 SF Austin Home L 82-83
12/19 205 Sam Houston St Home W 80-58
12/22 263 North Florida Home W 104-52
12/28 112 Memphis Away W 71-61
1/3 28 Kentucky Home L 71-74
1/6 27 Texas A&M Away W 69-68
1/10 25 Arkansas Away W 75-54
1/13 40 Alabama Home L 66-74
1/16 58 Georgia Home L 60-61
1/20 84 Vanderbilt Away L 71-77
1/23 27 Texas A&M Home W 77-65
1/27 8 Auburn Away L 70-95
1/31 15 Tennessee Away L 61-84
2/3 25 Arkansas Home W 94-86
2/7 35 Florida Away L 64-73
2/10 97 Mississippi Home W 82-66
2/13 40 Alabama Away L 65-80
2/17 38 Missouri Home W 64-63
2/20 84 Vanderbilt Home W 88-78
2/24 58 Georgia Away 39.2%
2/28 71 South Carolina Away 42.5%
3/3 50 Mississippi St Home 57.3%