LSU Tigers Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the LSU Tigers. All of these projections for LSU are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 3/17/2019.

LSU Record and Rankings

Record: 26-6
Projected Final Record: 26.0-6.0

SEC Conference Record: 16-2
Projected Final SEC Record: 16.0-2.0
Projected Final Rank in the SEC: 1

LSU Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 13
RPI Rank: 13
NET Rank: 14
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: 3 Seed

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 8-2 8-2 4-2 6-0
Win % by Tier 0.800 0.800 0.667 1.000

Our current projections give the LSU Tigers a 98.8% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 1.2% chance at an NIT bid and a 0.0% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account LSU’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #2 Seed 1.8%
NCAA #3 Seed 69.2%
NCAA #4 Seed 16.6%
NCAA #5 Seed 5.8%
NCAA #6 Seed 1.6%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.8%
NCAA #9 Seed 1.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 1.2%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 0.4%
NIT #2 Seed 0.0%
NIT #3 Seed 0.4%
NIT #4 Seed 0.2%
NIT #5 Seed 0.0%
NIT #6 Seed 0.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.2%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the LSU Tigers. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

LSU Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 223 SE Louisiana Home W 94-63
11/9 51 UNC Greensboro Home W 97-91
11/13 58 Memphis Home W 85-76
11/16 137 Louisiana Tech Home W 74-67
11/22 109 Col Charleston Neutal W 67-55
11/23 10 Florida St Neutral L 76-79
11/25 76 Oklahoma St Neutral L 77-90
12/1 297 Grambling Home W 78-57
12/9 347 Incarnate Word Home W 91-50
12/12 9 Houston Away L 76-82
12/15 39 St Mary’s CA Neutal W 78-74
12/21 59 Furman Home W 75-57
12/28 165 ULM Home W 81-69
1/8 54 Alabama Home W 88-79
1/12 63 Arkansas Away W 94-88
1/15 38 Mississippi Away W 83-69
1/19 65 South Carolina Home W 89-67
1/23 124 Georgia Home W 92-82
1/26 73 Missouri Away W 86-80
1/30 78 Texas A&M Away W 72-57
2/2 63 Arkansas Home L 89-90
2/6 21 Mississippi St Away W 92-88
2/9 16 Auburn Home W 83-78
2/12 5 Kentucky Away W 73-71
2/16 124 Georgia Away W 83-79
2/20 29 Florida Home L 77-82
2/23 3 Tennessee Home W 82-80
2/26 78 Texas A&M Home W 66-55
3/2 54 Alabama Away W 74-69
3/6 29 Florida Away W 79-78
3/9 161 Vanderbilt Home W 80-59
3/15 29 Florida Neutral L 73-76