MAAC Basketball Projections 2018-2019


These are the latest Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference projections based on our NCAA College Basketball Ratings. These projections for the MAAC are based on actual results of previous games and our predicted results for games upcoming in the future. The rank (or seed) for each team is only based upon their projected finish in the conference. Our latest update to these projections was done on 2/21/2019.

MAAC Projected Standings

Rank Team All Games Conference Games
Actual Projected Actual Projected
Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses
1 Canisius 12 14 14.1 15.9 9 5 11.1 6.9
2 Rider 14 13 15.9 14.1 9 6 10.9 7.1
3 Quinnipiac 14 12 15.9 13.1 9 6 10.9 7.1
4 Monmouth NJ 10 18 11.6 19.4 9 6 10.6 7.4
5 Iona 11 15 12.5 16.5 9 6 10.5 7.5
6 Siena 14 14 15.5 15.5 9 6 10.5 7.5
7 Marist 12 14 14.3 15.7 7 7 9.3 8.7
8 Manhattan 9 17 10.5 19.5 7 7 8.5 9.5
9 Niagara 12 15 13.4 17.6 5 9 6.4 11.6
10 Fairfield 7 20 8.6 21.4 4 11 5.6 12.4
11 St Peter’s 6 20 7.6 22.4 3 11 4.6 13.4

Projected MAAC Tournament Bids

Our full list of NCAA Tournament and NIT Tournament projections can be found here. The below list contains our latest NCAA Tournament projections for teams within the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference. The “Bracket Rating” is based on a proprietary formula that projects a team’s bracket seeding by the NCAA Tournament committee.

Team Seed Bracket Rating
Rider 16 -4.009

Projected MAAC Regular Season Finish

Based on 100 simulations, this is the projected place where each team finishes in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference standings.

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Top 8
Canisius 36% 16% 18% 8% 100%
Rider 21% 26% 18% 11% 100%
Quinnipiac 12% 20% 16% 22% 100%
Monmouth NJ 11% 9% 20% 19% 100%
Iona 9% 15% 12% 16% 100%
Siena 9% 10% 9% 17% 100%
Marist 2% 3% 4% 5% 98%
Manhattan 0% 1% 3% 2% 97%
Niagara 0% 0% 0% 0% 2%
Fairfield 0% 0% 0% 0% 3%
St Peter’s 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

MAAC Conference Tournament Predictions

Below are the odds to advance to each stage of the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference Tournament. The table below is based on 1,000 simulations. The MAAC Conference Basketball Tournament is currently played on the home court of the Siena Saints. Starting in the 2020 season, the tournament will move to Atlantic City’s Boardwalk Hall.

Regular Season Champion: TBD
Tournament Site: Times-Union Center (Albany, NY)
First Round: March 7th, 2019
Quarterfinals: March 8th and 9th, 2019
Semifinals: March 10th, 2019
Finals: March 11th, 2019

Seed Team To Advance To
Qtrs Semis Finals To Win
1
Canisius
96.9%
49.6%
23.2%
11.2%
2
Rider
95.6%
64.7%
39.2%
22.6%
3
Quinnipiac
92.8%
52.9%
29.6%
14.1%
4
Monmouth NJ
91.8%
38.9%
16.5%
7.6%
5
Iona
85%
48.6%
26.5%
15.4%
6
Siena
85.4%
42.6%
21.4%
9.8%
7
Marist
75.4%
38.5%
19.5%
9.8%
8
Manhattan
52.8%
17.9%
5.1%
1.4%
9
Niagara
48%
17.9%
7%
2.8%
10
Fairfield
44.7%
18.4%
8.8%
4.3%
11
St Peter’s
31.6%
10%
3.2%
1%

MAAC Upcoming Conference Games with Projections

Every projection takes into account the ability of each team, home court advantage, and other factors that make for accurate predictions.

Date Away Team Away Prob to Win Home Team Home Prob to Win Game Projection
2/22 Canisius 42.2% Monmouth NJ 57.8% Monmouth NJ wins by 3
2/22 Iona 55.5% Manhattan 44.5% Iona wins by 2
2/22 St Peter’s 17.2% Marist 82.8% Marist wins by 10
2/22 Niagara 18.2% Rider 81.8% Rider wins by 10
2/24 Canisius 35.5% Iona 64.5% Iona wins by 5
2/24 Manhattan 38.5% Fairfield 61.5% Fairfield wins by 4
2/24 Quinnipiac 46.7% Monmouth NJ 53.3% Monmouth NJ wins by 1
2/24 Niagara 48.5% St Peter’s 51.5% St Peter’s wins by 1
2/24 Marist 37.9% Siena 62.1% Siena wins by 4
2/27 Niagara 27.2% Canisius 72.8% Canisius wins by 7
3/1 Marist 51.8% Fairfield 48.2% Marist wins by 1
3/1 Monmouth NJ 47.8% Manhattan 52.2% Manhattan wins by 1
3/1 Quinnipiac 59.8% St Peter’s 40.2% Quinnipiac wins by 4
3/1 Siena 40.9% Canisius 59.2% Canisius wins by 3
3/1 Iona 34% Rider 66% Rider wins by 5
3/3 Fairfield 46.3% St Peter’s 53.7% St Peter’s wins by 1
3/3 Manhattan 19.4% Quinnipiac 80.6% Quinnipiac wins by 9
3/3 Rider 46.7% Marist 53.3% Marist wins by 1

Projections in Other Conferences

For other conferences, please see below.

AAC ACC America East Atlantic 10
Atlantic Sun Big 12 Big East Big Sky
Big South Big Ten Big West Colonial
Conference USA Horizon Ivy League MAAC
MAC MEAC MWC MVC
NEC OVC Pac-12 Patriot
Southern SEC Summit Southland
Southwestern Sun Belt WAC WCC