MAAC Basketball Projections 2018


These are the latest Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference projections based on our NCAA College Basketball Ratings. These projections for the MAAC are based on actual results of previous games and our predicted results for games upcoming in the future. The rank (or seed) for each team is only based upon their projected finish in the conference. Our latest update to these projections was done on 2/21/2018.

MAAC Projected Conference Standings

Rank Team All Games Conference Games
Actual Projected Actual Projected
Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses
1 Rider 21 7 22.2 7.8 14 2 15.2 2.8
2 Canisius 19 10 20.4 10.6 13 3 14.4 3.6
3 Niagara 18 11 19.3 11.7 11 5 12.3 5.7
4 Iona 16 12 17.2 12.8 10 6 11.2 6.8
5 Manhattan 13 15 14 16 8 8 9 9
6 Fairfield 12 15 13.1 15.9 7 9 8.1 9.9
7 Quinnipiac 10 18 10.7 19.3 7 9 7.7 10.3
8 Monmouth NJ 10 18 10.9 19.1 6 10 6.9 11.1
9 St Peter’s 10 17 11.2 17.8 4 12 5.2 12.8
10 Siena 8 21 8.7 22.3 4 12 4.7 13.3
11 Marist 6 22 6.2 23.8 4 12 4.2 13.8

Projected MAAC Tournament Bids

Our full list of NCAA Tournament and NIT Tournament projections can be found here. The below list contains our latest NCAA Tournament projections for teams within the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference. The “Bracket Rating” is based on a proprietary formula that projects a team’s bracket seeding by the NCAA Tournament committee.

Team Seed Bracket Rating
Rider 14 1.738

MAAC Conference Tournament Predictions

Below are the odds to advance to each stage of the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference Tournament. The table below is based on 1,000 simulations. Another caveat is that this simulation is based on the projected final seed of each MAAC team. The MAAC Conference Basketball Tournament is played on the home court of the Siena Saints.

Regular Season Champion: TBD
Tournament Site: Times-Union Center (Albany, NY)
First Round: March 1st, 2018
Quarterfinals: March 2nd and 3rd, 2018
Semifinals: March 4th, 2018
Finals: March 5th, 2018

Seed Team To Advance To
Qtrs Semis Finals To Win
1
Rider
100%
69.1%
43.5%
25.8%
2
Canisius
100%
80.8%
52.4%
28.2%
3
Niagara
100%
61.9%
27.9%
11.4%
4
Iona
100%
67.6%
33%
19.1%
5
Manhattan
100%
32.4%
11.6%
4.3%
6
Fairfield
68.9%
29.1%
11.8%
4.5%
7
Quinnipiac
51.5%
9.8%
2.8%
0.4%
8
Monmouth NJ
55.6%
19.7%
8.4%
4.1%
9
St Peter’s
44.4%
11.2%
3.5%
1.5%
10
Siena
48.5%
9.4%
3.1%
0.2%
11
Marist
31.1%
9%
2%
0.5%

MAAC Upcoming Conference Games with Projections

Every projection takes into account the ability of each team, home court advantage, and other factors that make for accurate predictions.

Date Away Team Away Prob to Win Home Team Home Prob to Win Game Projection
2/21 Canisius 51.5% Niagara 48.5% Canisius wins by 1
2/21 Fairfield 54.8% Siena 45.2% Fairfield wins by 2
2/22 Rider 55.1% Monmouth NJ 44.9% Rider wins by 2
2/23 Manhattan 18.4% Iona 81.6% Iona wins by 9
2/23 Marist 14.6% Niagara 85.4% Niagara wins by 11
2/23 St Peter’s 47.4% Quinnipiac 52.6% Quinnipiac wins by 1
2/24 Monmouth NJ 42.7% Fairfield 57.3% Fairfield wins by 3
2/25 Marist 8.2% Canisius 91.8% Canisius wins by 14
2/25 Quinnipiac 20.6% Manhattan 79.4% Manhattan wins by 9
2/25 Iona 35.9% Rider 64.1% Rider wins by 5
2/25 Siena 25.2% St Peter’s 74.8% St Peter’s wins by 8

Projections in Other Conferences

For other conferences, please see below.

AAC ACC America East Atlantic 10
Atlantic Sun Big 12 Big East Big Sky
Big South Big Ten Big West Colonial
Conference USA Horizon Ivy League MAAC
MAC MEAC MWC MVC
NEC OVC Pac-12 Patriot
Southern SEC Summit Southland
Southwestern Sun Belt WAC WCC