MAAC Basketball Projections 2018-2019


These are the latest Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference projections based on our NCAA College Basketball Ratings. These projections for the MAAC are based on actual results of previous games and our predicted results for games upcoming in the future. The rank (or seed) for each team is only based upon their projected finish in the conference. Our latest update to these projections was done on 12/17/2018.

MAAC Projected Standings

Rank Team All Games Conference Games
Actual Projected Actual Projected
Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses
1 Rider 4 3 18.6 10.4 0 0 13.4 4.6
2 Marist 4 5 17.3 12.7 0 0 11.5 6.5
3 Niagara 5 4 18.1 12.9 0 0 10.5 7.5
4 Siena 4 6 15.1 15.9 0 0 10.1 7.9
5 Fairfield 2 9 12.1 17.9 0 0 9.3 8.7
6 Quinnipiac 4 5 14.3 14.7 0 0 9.2 8.8
7 Iona 2 7 11.1 17.9 0 0 8.8 9.2
8 Canisius 3 6 12.3 17.7 0 0 8.8 9.2
9 St Peter’s 2 8 10.3 19.7 0 0 7.3 10.7
10 Manhattan 2 8 7.8 22.2 0 0 5.5 12.5
11 Monmouth NJ 0 11 4.8 26.2 0 0 4.7 13.3

Projected MAAC Tournament Bids

Our full list of NCAA Tournament and NIT Tournament projections can be found here. The below list contains our latest NCAA Tournament projections for teams within the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference. The “Bracket Rating” is based on a proprietary formula that projects a team’s bracket seeding by the NCAA Tournament committee.

Team Seed Bracket Rating
Rider 16 0.019

Projected MAAC Regular Season Finish

Based on 100 simulations, this is the projected place where each team finishes in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference standings.

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Top 8
Rider 61% 21% 12% 4% 100%
Marist 16% 22% 22% 14% 100%
Niagara 9% 16% 10% 17% 91%
Siena 7% 11% 12% 13% 95%
Fairfield 1% 11% 12% 7% 77%
Quinnipiac 1% 7% 9% 17% 87%
Iona 2% 5% 9% 8% 82%
Canisius 3% 5% 12% 9% 80%
St Peter’s 0% 2% 1% 8% 51%
Manhattan 0% 0% 1% 2% 28%
Monmouth NJ 0% 0% 0% 1% 9%

MAAC Conference Tournament Predictions

Below are the odds to advance to each stage of the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference Tournament. The table below is based on 1,000 simulations. The MAAC Conference Basketball Tournament is currently played on the home court of the Siena Saints. Starting in the 2020 season, the tournament will move to Atlantic City’s Boardwalk Hall.

Regular Season Champion: TBD
Tournament Site: Times-Union Center (Albany, NY)
First Round: March 7th, 2019
Quarterfinals: March 8th and 9th, 2019
Semifinals: March 10th, 2019
Finals: March 11th, 2019

Coming Soon!

MAAC Upcoming Conference Games with Projections

Every projection takes into account the ability of each team, home court advantage, and other factors that make for accurate predictions.

Date Away Team Away Prob to Win Home Team Home Prob to Win Game Projection
1/3 Canisius 20.8% Marist 79.2% Marist wins by 8
1/3 Monmouth NJ 13% Iona 87% Iona wins by 12
1/3 Quinnipiac 58.8% Manhattan 41.2% Quinnipiac wins by 3
1/3 Rider 61.5% Fairfield 38.5% Rider wins by 4
1/3 Siena 54% St Peter’s 46% Siena wins by 2
1/5 Fairfield 37.9% Iona 62.1% Iona wins by 4
1/5 Niagara 62.8% Manhattan 37.2% Niagara wins by 5
1/5 St Peter’s 56.9% Monmouth NJ 43.1% St Peter’s wins by 3
1/5 Canisius 34.4% Siena 65.6% Siena wins by 5
1/5 Quinnipiac 14.3% Rider 85.7% Rider wins by 11
1/7 Niagara 47.4% Fairfield 52.6% Fairfield wins by 1
1/8 Manhattan 9.7% Marist 90.3% Marist wins by 13
1/10 St Peter’s 25.7% Fairfield 74.3% Fairfield wins by 7
1/10 Monmouth NJ 13% Quinnipiac 87% Quinnipiac wins by 12
1/11 Iona 28.6% Niagara 71.4% Niagara wins by 7
1/11 Rider 60.8% Canisius 39.2% Rider wins by 4
1/11 Siena 26.7% Marist 73.3% Marist wins by 7
1/12 Manhattan 45.2% Monmouth NJ 54.8% Monmouth NJ wins by 2

Projections in Other Conferences

For other conferences, please see below.

AAC ACC America East Atlantic 10
Atlantic Sun Big 12 Big East Big Sky
Big South Big Ten Big West Colonial
Conference USA Horizon Ivy League MAAC
MAC MEAC MWC MVC
NEC OVC Pac-12 Patriot
Southern SEC Summit Southland
Southwestern Sun Belt WAC WCC