MAC Basketball Projections 2018-2019


These are the latest Mid-American Conference projections based on our NCAA College Basketball Ratings. These projections for the MAC are based on actual results of previous games and our predicted results for games upcoming in the future. The rank (or seed) for each team is only based upon their projected finish in the conference. Our latest update to these projections was done on 12/10/2018.

MAC Projected Standings

Rank Team All Games Conference Games
Actual Projected Actual Projected
Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses
1 Buffalo 9 0 27.1 3.9 0 0 15.2 2.8
2 Toledo 9 1 23.6 7.4 0 0 12 6
3 Ball St 6 4 20.1 10.9 0 0 11.5 6.5
4 Kent 8 1 21.1 9.9 0 0 10.7 7.3
5 Akron 6 3 18.4 12.6 0 0 9.8 8.2
6 Ohio 6 3 16.3 13.7 0 0 8.7 9.3
7 C Michigan 8 2 19.5 11.5 0 0 8.7 9.3
8 Miami OH 6 4 15.4 15.6 0 0 7.4 10.6
9 N Illinois 5 4 13.6 17.4 0 0 6.6 11.4
10 E Michigan 5 5 12.2 18.8 0 0 5.9 12.1
11 W Michigan 5 4 12.5 18.5 0 0 5.8 12.2
12 Bowling Green 5 5 13.1 17.9 0 0 5.6 12.4

Projected MAC Tournament Bids

Our full list of NCAA Tournament and NIT Tournament projections can be found here. The below list contains our latest NCAA Tournament projections for teams within the Mid-American Conference. The “Bracket Rating” is based on a proprietary formula that projects a team’s bracket seeding by the NCAA Tournament committee.

Team Seed Bracket Rating
Buffalo 6 7.094

Projected MAC Regular Season Finish

Based on 100 simulations, this is the projected place where each team finishes in the Mid-American Conference standings.

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Top 8
Buffalo 78% 13% 3% 6% 100%
Toledo 9% 28% 19% 19% 99%
Ball St 9% 22% 32% 13% 99%
Kent 2% 18% 20% 17% 98%
Akron 2% 10% 11% 15% 89%
Ohio 0% 3% 7% 10% 79%
C Michigan 0% 5% 3% 12% 75%
Miami OH 0% 1% 2% 3% 42%
N Illinois 0% 0% 2% 1% 41%
E Michigan 0% 0% 0% 2% 33%
W Michigan 0% 0% 0% 0% 20%
Bowling Green 0% 0% 1% 2% 25%

MAC Conference Tournament Predictions

Below are the odds to advance to each stage of the Mid-American Conference Tournament. The table below is based on 1,000 simulations. The first four seeds of the MAC Championship Tournament gets byes into the Quarterfinal Round. The 5th though 12th seed will play their First Round match at the site of the higher seed.

Regular Season Champion: TBD
Tournament Site: Campus Sites (1st Round), Quicken Loans Arena (Cleveland, OH)
First Round: March 11th, 2019
Quarterfinals: March 14th, 2019
Semifinals: March 15th, 2019
Finals: March 16th, 2019

Coming Soon!

MAC Upcoming Conference Games with Projections

Every projection takes into account the ability of each team, home court advantage, and other factors that make for accurate predictions.

Date Away Team Away Prob to Win Home Team Home Prob to Win Game Projection
1/4 Ball St 35.1% Toledo 64.9% Toledo wins by 5
1/4 Buffalo 91.8% E Michigan 8.2% Buffalo wins by 14
1/5 W Michigan 17.2% Akron 82.8% Akron wins by 10
1/5 Bowling Green 15.3% Kent 84.7% Kent wins by 11
1/5 N Illinois 26.2% Ohio 73.8% Ohio wins by 7
1/5 C Michigan 43.5% Miami OH 56.5% Miami OH wins by 2
1/8 Akron 51.8% C Michigan 48.2% Akron wins by 1
1/8 E Michigan 15.3% Ball St 84.7% Ball St wins by 11
1/8 Ohio 60.8% Bowling Green 39.2% Ohio wins by 4
1/8 Toledo 17% Buffalo 83% Buffalo wins by 10
1/8 W Michigan 15.3% Kent 84.7% Kent wins by 11
1/8 N Illinois 33.6% Miami OH 66.4% Miami OH wins by 6
1/12 Akron 59.5% N Illinois 40.5% Akron wins by 4
1/12 Ohio 25.7% Ball St 74.3% Ball St wins by 7
1/12 Bowling Green 23.3% C Michigan 76.7% C Michigan wins by 8
1/12 Kent 64.5% E Michigan 35.5% Kent wins by 5
1/12 Toledo 77.2% W Michigan 22.8% Toledo wins by 8
1/12 Miami OH 7.4% Buffalo 92.6% Buffalo wins by 15

Projections in Other Conferences

For other conferences, please see below.

AAC ACC America East Atlantic 10
Atlantic Sun Big 12 Big East Big Sky
Big South Big Ten Big West Colonial
Conference USA Horizon Ivy League MAAC
MAC MEAC MWC MVC
NEC OVC Pac-12 Patriot
Southern SEC Summit Southland
Southwestern Sun Belt WAC WCC