MAC Basketball Projections 2018-2019


These are the latest Mid-American Conference projections based on our NCAA College Basketball Ratings. These projections for the MAC are based on actual results of previous games and our predicted results for games upcoming in the future. The rank (or seed) for each team is only based upon their projected finish in the conference. Our latest update to these projections was done on 2/21/2019.

MAC Projected Standings

Rank Team All Games Conference Games
Actual Projected Actual Projected
Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses
1 Buffalo 23 3 27.4 3.6 11 2 15.4 2.6
2 Bowling Green 19 7 21.7 9.3 11 2 13.7 4.3
3 Toledo 20 6 23.7 7.3 8 5 11.7 6.3
4 Kent 19 7 21.3 9.7 8 5 10.3 7.7
5 C Michigan 18 8 20.7 10.3 7 6 9.7 8.3
6 E Michigan 12 14 14.5 16.5 6 7 8.5 9.5
7 Akron 14 12 16.3 14.7 6 7 8.3 9.7
8 Miami OH 14 12 15.9 15.1 6 7 7.9 10.1
9 Ball St 14 12 16.9 14.1 5 8 7.9 10.1
10 N Illinois 12 14 14.2 16.8 5 8 7.2 10.8
11 Ohio 11 14 12.3 17.7 3 10 4.3 13.7
12 W Michigan 8 18 9.1 21.9 2 11 3.1 14.9

Projected MAC Tournament Bids

Our full list of NCAA Tournament and NIT Tournament projections can be found here. The below list contains our latest NCAA Tournament projections for teams within the Mid-American Conference. The “Bracket Rating” is based on a proprietary formula that projects a team’s bracket seeding by the NCAA Tournament committee.

Team Seed Bracket Rating
Buffalo 7 7.212
Toledo Next 4 Out 3.599

Projected MAC Regular Season Finish

Based on 100 simulations, this is the projected place where each team finishes in the Mid-American Conference standings.

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Top 8
Buffalo 86% 14% 0% 0% 100%
Bowling Green 14% 80% 6% 0% 100%
Toledo 0% 6% 75% 16% 100%
Kent 0% 0% 11% 50% 100%
C Michigan 0% 0% 6% 18% 97%
E Michigan 0% 0% 0% 3% 83%
Akron 0% 0% 0% 6% 75%
Miami OH 0% 0% 1% 4% 55%
Ball St 0% 0% 0% 2% 51%
N Illinois 0% 0% 1% 1% 38%
Ohio 0% 0% 0% 0% 1%
W Michigan 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

MAC Conference Tournament Predictions

Below are the odds to advance to each stage of the Mid-American Conference Tournament. The table below is based on 1,000 simulations. The first four seeds of the MAC Championship Tournament gets byes into the Quarterfinal Round. The 5th though 12th seed will play their First Round match at the site of the higher seed.

Regular Season Champion: TBD
Tournament Site: Campus Sites (1st Round), Quicken Loans Arena (Cleveland, OH)
First Round: March 11th, 2019
Quarterfinals: March 14th, 2019
Semifinals: March 15th, 2019
Finals: March 16th, 2019

Seed Team To Advance To
Qtrs Semis Finals To Win
1
Buffalo
100%
85.3%
72.2%
59.9%
2
Bowling Green
100%
63.3%
32.2%
9.4%
3
Toledo
99.8%
69.2%
34.4%
13.6%
4
Kent
87.7%
45%
12.8%
3.8%
5
C Michigan
78.3%
34.9%
10.3%
2.6%
6
E Michigan
58%
16.2%
5.5%
1.3%
7
Akron
67.8%
23.1%
9.1%
2.9%
8
Miami OH
54.8%
16.2%
5.5%
1.5%
9
Ball St
55.9%
20.1%
11%
3.8%
10
N Illinois
49.6%
15.2%
4.3%
1.1%
11
Ohio
27.7%
6.8%
2.1%
0.1%
12
W Michigan
20.4%
4.7%
0.6%
0%

MAC Upcoming Conference Games with Projections

Every projection takes into account the ability of each team, home court advantage, and other factors that make for accurate predictions.

Date Away Team Away Prob to Win Home Team Home Prob to Win Game Projection
2/23 C Michigan 41.2% Ball St 58.8% Ball St wins by 3
2/23 Bowling Green 65.3% Ohio 34.7% Bowling Green wins by 5
2/23 Kent 9.4% Buffalo 90.6% Buffalo wins by 13
2/23 W Michigan 17.2% E Michigan 82.8% E Michigan wins by 10
2/23 N Illinois 17% Toledo 83% Toledo wins by 10
2/23 Miami OH 39.2% Akron 60.8% Akron wins by 4
2/26 Akron 8.2% Buffalo 91.8% Buffalo wins by 14
2/26 Toledo 57.8% Ball St 42.2% Toledo wins by 3
2/26 C Michigan 48.5% E Michigan 51.5% E Michigan wins by 1
2/26 Ohio 19.4% Kent 80.6% Kent wins by 9
2/26 W Michigan 17.9% N Illinois 82.1% N Illinois wins by 10
2/26 Miami OH 27.2% Bowling Green 72.8% Bowling Green wins by 7
3/2 Ohio 21.8% Akron 78.2% Akron wins by 8
3/2 Ball St 68.3% W Michigan 31.7% Ball St wins by 6
3/2 Kent 35.9% Bowling Green 64.1% Bowling Green wins by 5
3/2 Toledo 58.5% C Michigan 41.5% Toledo wins by 3
3/2 E Michigan 43.3% N Illinois 56.7% N Illinois wins by 3
3/2 Buffalo 80.9% Miami OH 19.1% Buffalo wins by 9

Projections in Other Conferences

For other conferences, please see below.

AAC ACC America East Atlantic 10
Atlantic Sun Big 12 Big East Big Sky
Big South Big Ten Big West Colonial
Conference USA Horizon Ivy League MAAC
MAC MEAC MWC MVC
NEC OVC Pac-12 Patriot
Southern SEC Summit Southland
Southwestern Sun Belt WAC WCC