MAC Basketball Projections 2018


These are the latest Mid-American Conference projections based on our NCAA College Basketball Ratings. These projections for the MAC are based on actual results of previous games and our predicted results for games upcoming in the future. The rank (or seed) for each team is only based upon their projected finish in the conference. Our latest update to these projections was done on 2/21/2018.

MAC Projected Conference Standings

Rank Team All Games Conference Games
Actual Projected Actual Projected
Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses
1 Buffalo 20 8 22.5 8.5 12 3 14.5 3.5
2 Toledo 19 9 21.1 9.9 11 4 13.1 4.9
3 Ball St 19 9 20.8 10.2 10 5 11.8 6.2
4 W Michigan 16 12 17.5 13.5 8 7 9.5 8.5
5 E Michigan 17 11 18.4 12.6 8 7 9.4 8.6
6 Kent 13 15 14.7 16.3 7 8 8.7 9.3
7 Miami OH 14 14 15.5 15.5 7 8 8.5 9.5
8 Bowling Green 16 12 17.1 13.9 7 8 8.1 9.9
9 Ohio 12 15 13.2 16.8 5 10 6.2 11.8
10 C Michigan 16 12 17.2 13.8 5 10 6.2 11.8
11 Akron 12 15 13 17 5 10 6 12
12 N Illinois 12 16 13 18 5 10 6 12

Projected MAC Tournament Bids

Our full list of NCAA Tournament and NIT Tournament projections can be found here. The below list contains our latest NCAA Tournament projections for teams within the Mid-American Conference. The “Bracket Rating” is based on a proprietary formula that projects a team’s bracket seeding by the NCAA Tournament committee.

Team Seed Bracket Rating
Buffalo 13 2.674

MAC Conference Tournament Predictions

Below are the odds to advance to each stage of the Mid-American Conference Tournament. The table below is based on 1,000 simulations. Another caveat is that this simulation is based on the projected final seed of each MAC team. The first four seeds of the MAC Championship Tournament gets byes into the Quarterfinal Round. The 5th though 12th seed will play their First Round match at the site of the higher seed.

Regular Season Champion: TBD
Tournament Site: Campus Sites (1st Round), Quicken Loans Arena (Cleveland, OH)
First Round: March 5th, 2018
Quarterfinals: March 8th, 2018
Semifinals: March 9th, 2018
Finals: March 10th, 2018

Seed Team To Advance To
Qtrs Semis Finals To Win
1
Buffalo
100%
79.8%
58.8%
41.3%
2
Toledo
100%
71.3%
42%
19.8%
3
Ball St
100%
67.1%
35.8%
16.2%
4
W Michigan
100%
58.7%
21.6%
9.1%
5
E Michigan
69.2%
30.8%
9.1%
3.4%
6
Kent
68.6%
23.9%
9.1%
2.4%
7
Miami OH
55.4%
15.7%
5.4%
1.8%
8
Bowling Green
56.5%
10.8%
4.1%
1.7%
9
Ohio
43.5%
9.4%
4.4%
1.7%
10
C Michigan
44.6%
13%
6.1%
1.7%
11
Akron
31.4%
9%
1.6%
0.4%
12
N Illinois
30.8%
10.5%
2%
0.5%

MAC Upcoming Conference Games with Projections

Every projection takes into account the ability of each team, home court advantage, and other factors that make for accurate predictions.

Date Away Team Away Prob to Win Home Team Home Prob to Win Game Projection
2/23 W Michigan 37.9% Ball St 62.1% Ball St wins by 4
2/24 Miami OH 52.9% Akron 47.1% Miami OH wins by 1
2/24 Ohio 14.6% Buffalo 85.4% Buffalo wins by 11
2/24 N Illinois 25.2% E Michigan 74.8% E Michigan wins by 8
2/24 Bowling Green 41.2% Kent 58.8% Kent wins by 3
2/24 C Michigan 22.3% Toledo 77.7% Toledo wins by 8
2/27 Akron 8.2% Buffalo 91.8% Buffalo wins by 14
2/27 Ball St 55.9% C Michigan 44.1% Ball St wins by 2
2/27 Bowling Green 39.5% Ohio 60.5% Ohio wins by 4
2/27 E Michigan 38.2% W Michigan 61.8% W Michigan wins by 4
2/27 Toledo 64.5% N Illinois 35.5% Toledo wins by 5
2/27 Miami OH 42.5% Kent 57.5% Kent wins by 3
3/2 Kent 52.9% Akron 47.1% Kent wins by 1
3/2 Buffalo 71.2% Bowling Green 28.8% Buffalo wins by 7
3/2 W Michigan 51.1% C Michigan 48.9% W Michigan wins by 1
3/2 Ohio 43.1% Miami OH 56.9% Miami OH wins by 3
3/2 E Michigan 27.7% Toledo 72.3% Toledo wins by 7
3/2 Ball St 62.5% N Illinois 37.6% Ball St wins by 4

Projections in Other Conferences

For other conferences, please see below.

AAC ACC America East Atlantic 10
Atlantic Sun Big 12 Big East Big Sky
Big South Big Ten Big West Colonial
Conference USA Horizon Ivy League MAAC
MAC MEAC MWC MVC
NEC OVC Pac-12 Patriot
Southern SEC Summit Southland
Southwestern Sun Belt WAC WCC