Marshall Thundering Herd Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the Marshall Thundering Herd. All of these projections for Marshall are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 1/20/2019.

Marshall Record and Rankings

Record: 12-6
Projected Final Record: 18.0-9.0

CUSA Conference Record: 5-0
Projected Final CUSA Record: 11.0-3.0
Projected Final Rank in the CUSA: 1

Marshall Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 99
RPI Rank: 53
NET Rank: 118
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-2 2-4 4-0 6-0
Win % by Tier 0.000 0.333 1.000 1.000

Our current projections give the Marshall Thundering Herd a 18.8% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 47.0% chance at an NIT bid and a 34.2% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Marshall’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.8%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #12 Seed 3.8%
NCAA #13 Seed 8.2%
NCAA #14 Seed 4.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 0.4%
NIT #2 Seed 0.2%
NIT #3 Seed 2.0%
NIT #4 Seed 1.6%
NIT #5 Seed 5.4%
NIT #6 Seed 11.2%
NIT #7 Seed 22.0%
NIT #8 Seed 4.2%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Marshall Thundering Herd. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Marshall Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/7 225 E Kentucky Away W 105-77
11/11 58 Hofstra Home W 76-72
11/14 324 Mt St Mary’s Home W 98-75
11/19 256 NC A&T Home W 95-71
11/23 12 Maryland Away L 67-104
11/28 226 William & Mary Home W 84-64
12/1 150 Ohio Away L 84-101
12/5 139 Duquesne Away L 82-93
12/8 62 Toledo Home L 74-75
12/10 250 Morehead St Home W 76-64
12/15 158 Akron Away W 75-74
12/22 122 Texas A&M Away L 68-92
12/31 1 Virginia Away L 64-100
1/3 92 Old Dominion Away W 70-67
1/5 238 Charlotte Away W 85-84
1/12 127 WKU Home W 70-69
1/17 186 FL Atlantic Home W 96-84
1/19 177 Florida Intl Home W 105-97
1/21 127 WKU Away 41.2%
1/24 136 Louisiana Tech Away 46.3%
1/26 157 Southern Miss Away 54.8%
1/31 286 UTEP Home 92.6%
2/2 181 UT San Antonio Home 84.2%
2/7 90 North Texas Away 37.2%
2/9 254 Rice Away 69.9%
2/14 155 UAB Home 79.4%
2/16 292 MTSU Home 93%