Marshall Thundering Herd Projections 2018


These are the latest projections for the Marshall Thundering Herd. All of these projections for Marshall are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 3/19/2018.

Marshall Record and Rankings

Record: 25-11
Projected Final Record: 25.0-11.0

CUSA Conference Record: 15-6
Projected Final CUSA Record: 15.0-6.0
Projected Final Rank in the CUSA: 4

Marshall Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 96
RPI Rank: 87
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: 13 Seed

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 3-2 1-3 3-4 16-1
Win % by Tier 0.600 0.250 0.429 0.941

Our current projections give the Marshall Thundering Herd a 100.0% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 0.0% chance at an NIT bid and a 0.0% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Marshall’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #13 Seed 62.4%
NCAA #14 Seed 37.6%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 0.0%
NIT #2 Seed 0.0%
NIT #3 Seed 0.0%
NIT #4 Seed 0.0%
NIT #5 Seed 0.0%
NIT #6 Seed 0.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Marshall Thundering Herd. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Marshall Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/10 304 TN Martin Home W 102-91
11/13 329 Southern Univ Home W 83-74
11/16 290 Morehead St Away L 83-86
11/19 112 Illinois Away L 74-91
11/22 303 NC Central Home W 92-84
11/26 No Rank Concord Home W 106-70
11/29 143 William & Mary Away L 104-114
12/2 223 Akron Home W 86-64
12/5 296 Chattanooga Home W 70-66
12/9 113 Toledo Away W 93-87
12/16 195 Ohio Home W 99-96
12/19 8 Xavier Away L 77-81
12/22 279 E Kentucky Home W 91-71
12/28 207 Southern Miss Home W 85-66
12/30 178 Louisiana Tech Home W 78-65
1/6 72 WKU Home L 87-112
1/11 321 Charlotte Away W 91-83
1/13 78 Old Dominion Away L 76-82
1/18 65 MTSU Home W 73-63
1/20 130 UAB Home W 86-78
1/27 72 WKU Away L 74-85
2/1 177 UT San Antonio Away L 77-81
2/3 256 UTEP Away W 74-65
2/8 251 Florida Intl Home W 76-66
2/10 259 FL Atlantic Home W 79-68
2/15 314 Rice Away W 93-80
2/17 211 North Texas Away W 74-72
2/22 78 Old Dominion Home L 79-84
2/24 321 Charlotte Home W 103-75
3/1 130 UAB Away L 77-91
3/3 65 MTSU Away W 76-67
3/8 177 UT San Antonio Frisco, TX W 95-81
3/9 207 Southern Miss Frisco, TX W 85-75
3/10 72 WKU Frisco, TX W 67-66
3/16 18 Wichita St NCAA Tournament San Diego CA W 81-75
3/18 13 West Virginia NCAA Tournament L 71-94