Marshall Thundering Herd Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the Marshall Thundering Herd. All of these projections for Marshall are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 12/10/2018.

Marshall Record and Rankings

Record: 5-4
Projected Final Record: 15.5-11.5

CUSA Conference Record: 0-0
Projected Final CUSA Record: 8.9-5.1
Projected Final Rank in the CUSA: 5

Marshall Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 131
RPI Rank: 122
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-2 0-1 1-1 4-0
Win % by Tier 0.000 0.000 0.500 1.000

Our current projections give the Marshall Thundering Herd a 26.2% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 12.2% chance at an NIT bid and a 61.6% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Marshall’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #12 Seed 3.8%
NCAA #13 Seed 2.2%
NCAA #14 Seed 8.2%
NCAA #15 Seed 9.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 1.8%
NIT #1 Seed 0.4%
NIT #2 Seed 0.4%
NIT #3 Seed 0.0%
NIT #4 Seed 0.2%
NIT #5 Seed 0.4%
NIT #6 Seed 2.8%
NIT #7 Seed 5.6%
NIT #8 Seed 2.4%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Marshall Thundering Herd. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Marshall Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/7 220 E Kentucky Away W 105-77
11/11 139 Hofstra Home W 76-72
11/14 343 Mt St Mary’s Home W 98-75
11/19 298 NC A&T Home W 95-71
11/23 28 Maryland Away L 67-104
11/28 215 William & Mary Home W 84-64
12/1 143 Ohio Away L 84-101
12/5 136 Duquesne Away L 82-93
12/8 71 Toledo Home L 74-75
12/10 274 Morehead St Home 91.8%
12/15 129 Akron Away 37.9%
12/22 115 Texas A&M Away 34%
12/31 6 Virginia Away 2.9%
1/3 116 Old Dominion Away 35.1%
1/5 299 Charlotte Away 76.7%
1/12 114 WKU Home 56.9%
1/17 171 FL Atlantic Home 79.2%
1/19 202 Florida Intl Home 83.8%
1/21 114 WKU Away 34.4%
1/24 132 Louisiana Tech Away 39.2%
1/26 151 Southern Miss Away 43.7%
1/31 216 UTEP Home 84.2%
2/2 207 UT San Antonio Home 83.8%
2/7 96 North Texas Away 29.7%
2/9 314 Rice Away 74.8%
2/14 177 UAB Home 79.7%
2/16 253 MTSU Home 86.4%