Maryland Terrapins Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the Maryland Terrapins. All of these projections for Maryland are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 1/17/2019.

Maryland Record and Rankings

Record: 15-3
Projected Final Record: 21.8-9.2

Big Ten Conference Record: 6-1
Projected Final Big Ten Record: 12.8-7.2
Projected Final Rank in the Big Ten: 3

Maryland Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 15
RPI Rank: 15
NET Rank: 21
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: 3 Seed

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 1-3 6-0 5-0 3-0
Win % by Tier 0.250 1.000 1.000 1.000

Our current projections give the Maryland Terrapins a 92.6% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 3.6% chance at an NIT bid and a 3.8% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Maryland’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 2.2%
NCAA #2 Seed 19.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 27.2%
NCAA #4 Seed 13.6%
NCAA #5 Seed 10.4%
NCAA #6 Seed 6.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 5.8%
NCAA #8 Seed 4.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 2.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 1.4%
NCAA #11 Seed 1.0%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 1.2%
NIT #2 Seed 0.8%
NIT #3 Seed 0.4%
NIT #4 Seed 0.6%
NIT #5 Seed 0.4%
NIT #6 Seed 0.2%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Maryland Terrapins. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Maryland Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 193 Delaware Home W 73-67
11/9 268 Navy Away W 78-57
11/12 264 NC A&T Home W 82-59
11/16 70 Hofstra Home W 80-69
11/18 340 Mt St Mary’s Home W 92-77
11/23 110 Marshall Home W 104-67
11/28 1 Virginia Home L 71-76
12/1 86 Penn St Home W 66-59
12/6 19 Purdue Away L 60-62
12/8 111 Loyola-Chicago Neutal W 55-41
12/11 302 Loyola MD Home W 94-71
12/22 38 Seton Hall Home L 74-78
12/29 118 Radford Home W 78-64
1/2 14 Nebraska Home W 74-72
1/5 113 Rutgers Away W 77-63
1/8 45 Minnesota Away W 82-67
1/11 31 Indiana Home W 78-75
1/14 30 Wisconsin Home W 64-60
1/18 33 Ohio St Away 47.8%
1/21 4 Michigan St Away 14.3%
1/26 123 Illinois Neutal 82.3%
1/29 60 Northwestern Home 85.4%
2/1 30 Wisconsin Away 43.7%
2/6 14 Nebraska Away 35.5%
2/12 19 Purdue Home 61.8%
2/16 2 Michigan Away 14.3%
2/19 25 Iowa Away 43.1%
2/23 33 Ohio St Home 72.3%
2/27 86 Penn St Away 60.5%
3/3 2 Michigan Home 40.9%
3/8 45 Minnesota Home 81.1%