Maryland Terrapins Projections 2018


These are the latest projections for the Maryland Terrapins. All of these projections for Maryland are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 3/19/2018.

Maryland Record and Rankings

Record: 19-13
Projected Final Record: 19.0-13.0

Big Ten Conference Record: 8-11
Projected Final Big Ten Record: 8.0-11.0
Projected Final Rank in the Big Ten: 8

Maryland Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 57
RPI Rank: 74
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-10 1-2 8-1 9-0
Win % by Tier 0.000 0.333 0.889 1.000

Our current projections give the Maryland Terrapins a 5.6% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 93.2% chance at an NIT bid and a 1.2% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Maryland’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #11 Seed 2.6%
NCAA #12 Seed 2.2%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 4.8%
NIT #2 Seed 9.4%
NIT #3 Seed 18.2%
NIT #4 Seed 25.2%
NIT #5 Seed 35.0%
NIT #6 Seed 0.6%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Maryland Terrapins. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Maryland Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/10 235 Stony Brook Uniondale, NY W 76-61
11/12 349 MD E Shore Home W 96-43
11/15 29 Butler Home W 79-65
11/18 108 Bucknell Home W 80-78
11/20 334 Jackson St Home W 76-45
11/24 61 St Bonaventure Niceville, FL L 61-63
11/25 99 New Mexico Niceville, FL W 80-65
11/27 54 Syracuse Away L 70-72
12/1 6 Purdue Home L 75-80
12/3 112 Illinois Away W 92-91
12/7 195 Ohio Home W 87-62
12/9 263 Gardner Webb Home W 82-60
12/12 No Rank Catholic Home W 76-59
12/21 274 F Dickinson Home W 75-50
12/29 161 UMBC Home W 66-45
1/2 50 Penn St Home W 75-69
1/4 4 Michigan St Away L 61-91
1/7 100 Iowa Home W 91-73
1/11 19 Ohio St Away L 69-91
1/15 9 Michigan Away L 67-68
1/18 111 Minnesota Home W 77-66
1/22 81 Indiana Away L 68-71
1/28 4 Michigan St Home L 68-74
1/31 6 Purdue Away L 67-75
2/4 75 Wisconsin Home W 68-63
2/7 50 Penn St Away L 70-74
2/10 94 Northwestern Home W 73-57
2/13 45 Nebraska Away L 66-70
2/17 134 Rutgers Home W 61-51
2/19 94 Northwestern Away W 71-64
2/24 9 Michigan Home L 61-85
3/1 75 Wisconsin New York, NY L 54-59