Maryland Terrapins Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the Maryland Terrapins. All of these projections for Maryland are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 3/17/2019.

Maryland Record and Rankings

Record: 22-10
Projected Final Record: 22.0-10.0

Big Ten Conference Record: 13-7
Projected Final Big Ten Record: 13.0-7.0
Projected Final Rank in the Big Ten: 5

Maryland Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 26
RPI Rank: 29
NET Rank: 27
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: 6 Seed

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 5-6 4-3 8-1 5-0
Win % by Tier 0.455 0.571 0.889 1.000

Our current projections give the Maryland Terrapins a 98.6% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 1.4% chance at an NIT bid and a 0.0% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Maryland’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #3 Seed 1.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 3.8%
NCAA #5 Seed 17.2%
NCAA #6 Seed 31.2%
NCAA #7 Seed 39.4%
NCAA #8 Seed 3.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.8%
NCAA #10 Seed 1.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 0.8%
NIT #2 Seed 0.2%
NIT #3 Seed 0.0%
NIT #4 Seed 0.2%
NIT #5 Seed 0.2%
NIT #6 Seed 0.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Maryland Terrapins. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Maryland Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 231 Delaware Home W 73-67
11/9 247 Navy Away W 78-57
11/12 290 NC A&T Home W 82-59
11/16 95 Hofstra Home W 80-69
11/18 325 Mt St Mary’s Home W 92-77
11/23 142 Marshall Home W 104-67
11/28 1 Virginia Home L 71-76
12/1 53 Penn St Home W 66-59
12/6 12 Purdue Away L 60-62
12/8 130 Loyola-Chicago Neutal W 55-41
12/11 279 Loyola MD Home W 94-71
12/22 41 Seton Hall Home L 74-78
12/29 141 Radford Home W 78-64
1/2 49 Nebraska Home W 74-72
1/5 82 Rutgers Away W 77-63
1/8 32 Minnesota Away W 82-67
1/11 45 Indiana Home W 78-75
1/14 19 Wisconsin Home W 64-60
1/18 46 Ohio St Away W 75-61
1/21 6 Michigan St Away L 55-69
1/26 89 Illinois Neutral L 67-78
1/29 97 Northwestern Home W 70-52
2/1 19 Wisconsin Away L 61-69
2/6 49 Nebraska Away W 60-45
2/12 12 Purdue Home W 70-56
2/16 8 Michigan Away L 52-65
2/19 34 Iowa Away W 66-65
2/23 46 Ohio St Home W 72-62
2/27 53 Penn St Away L 61-78
3/3 8 Michigan Home L 62-69
3/8 32 Minnesota Home W 69-60
3/14 49 Nebraska Neutral L 61-69