Maryland Terrapins Projections 2018


These are the latest projections for the Maryland Terrapins. All of these projections for Maryland are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 11/12/2018.

Maryland Record and Rankings

Record: 2-0
Projected Final Record: 18.0-13.0

Big Ten Conference Record: 0-0
Projected Final Big Ten Record: 8.9-11.1
Projected Final Rank in the Big Ten: 10

Maryland Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 37
RPI Rank: 32
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: 5 Seed

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 1-0 0-0 1-0 0-0
Win % by Tier 1.000 0.000 1.000 0.000

Our current projections give the Maryland Terrapins a 63.6% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 26.6% chance at an NIT bid and a 9.8% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Maryland’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.8%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #4 Seed 1.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 1.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 2.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 3.4%
NCAA #8 Seed 8.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 15.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 16.4%
NCAA #11 Seed 14.6%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.8%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 13.8%
NIT #2 Seed 9.2%
NIT #3 Seed 1.6%
NIT #4 Seed 1.4%
NIT #5 Seed 0.6%
NIT #6 Seed 0.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Maryland Terrapins. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Maryland Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 173 Delaware Home W 73-67
11/9 264 Navy Away W 78-57
11/12 287 NC A&T Home 98.6%
11/16 115 Hofstra Home 85.7%
11/18 279 Mt St Mary’s Home 98.6%
11/23 64 Marshall Home 80.9%
11/28 4 Virginia Home 38.2%
12/1 17 Penn St Home 52.9%
12/6 14 Purdue Away 29.7%
12/8 61 Loyola-Chicago Neutal 63.3%
12/11 293 Loyola MD Home 98.5%
12/22 27 Seton Hall Home 57.8%
12/29 118 Radford Home 86.6%
1/2 13 Nebraska Home 47.1%
1/5 65 Rutgers Away 45.6%
1/8 109 Minnesota Away 59.2%
1/11 20 Indiana Home 45.2%
1/14 39 Wisconsin Home 60.5%
1/18 8 Ohio St Away 17.7%
1/21 12 Michigan St Away 18.2%
1/26 45 Illinois Neutal 50.5%
1/29 67 Northwestern Home 72.8%
2/1 39 Wisconsin Away 36.2%
2/6 13 Nebraska Away 19.6%
2/12 14 Purdue Home 55.9%
2/16 9 Michigan Away 20.3%
2/19 84 Iowa Away 54.8%
2/23 8 Ohio St Home 44.1%
2/27 17 Penn St Away 26.2%
3/3 9 Michigan Home 48.2%
3/8 109 Minnesota Home 85.4%