Memphis Tigers Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the Memphis Tigers. All of these projections for Memphis are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 1/20/2019.

Memphis Record and Rankings

Record: 12-6
Projected Final Record: 18.7-12.3

AAC Conference Record: 4-1
Projected Final AAC Record: 10.7-7.3
Projected Final Rank in the AAC: 5

Memphis Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 76
RPI Rank: 75
NET Rank: 74
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-4 1-2 3-0 8-0
Win % by Tier 0.000 0.333 1.000 1.000

Our current projections give the Memphis Tigers a 9.4% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 45.2% chance at an NIT bid and a 45.4% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Memphis’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 1.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 1.2%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #11 Seed 1.8%
NCAA #12 Seed 2.4%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.2%
NIT #1 Seed 2.4%
NIT #2 Seed 4.6%
NIT #3 Seed 7.4%
NIT #4 Seed 9.0%
NIT #5 Seed 9.8%
NIT #6 Seed 9.0%
NIT #7 Seed 3.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Memphis Tigers. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Memphis Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 335 Tennessee Tech Home W 76-61
11/13 16 LSU Away L 76-85
11/17 66 Yale Home W 109-102
11/22 73 Oklahoma St Neutral L 64-84
11/23 233 Canisius Neutal W 71-63
11/25 120 Col Charleston Neutral L 75-78
12/1 14 Texas Tech Neutral L 67-78
12/4 141 S Dakota St Home W 88-80
12/8 155 UAB Home W 94-76
12/15 4 Tennessee Home L 92-102
12/19 266 Ark Little Rock Home W 99-89
12/22 321 Tennessee St Home W 99-41
12/29 334 Florida A&M Home W 96-65
1/3 115 Wichita St Home W 85-74
1/6 13 Houston Away L 77-90
1/10 212 East Carolina Home W 78-72
1/13 311 Tulane Away W 83-79
1/19 121 SMU Home W 83-61
1/24 54 Temple Away 33.6%
1/27 46 UCF Home 47.4%
1/30 104 Tulsa Away 49.3%
2/2 131 South Florida Away 55.7%
2/7 32 Cincinnati Home 39.9%
2/10 95 Connecticut Home 63.8%
2/13 212 East Carolina Away 72.5%
2/16 46 UCF Away 24.7%
2/20 311 Tulane Home 93.8%
2/23 115 Wichita St Away 48.9%
2/26 54 Temple Home 56.5%
3/2 32 Cincinnati Away 17%
3/9 104 Tulsa Home 70.6%