Mercer Bears Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the Mercer Bears. All of these projections for Mercer are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 1/17/2019.

Mercer Record and Rankings

Record: 6-11
Projected Final Record: 11.8-18.2

Southern Conference Record: 1-4
Projected Final Southern Record: 6.8-11.2
Projected Final Rank in the Southern: 7

Mercer Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 210
RPI Rank: 278
NET Rank: 197
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-3 0-3 0-5 4-0
Win % by Tier 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.000

Our current projections give the Mercer Bears a 1.0% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 0.6% chance at an NIT bid and a 98.4% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Mercer’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.8%
NIT #1 Seed 0.2%
NIT #2 Seed 0.0%
NIT #3 Seed 0.2%
NIT #4 Seed 0.2%
NIT #5 Seed 0.0%
NIT #6 Seed 0.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Mercer Bears. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Mercer Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 173 UAB Away L 67-75
11/9 No Rank Piedmont Home W 105-52
11/13 71 Georgia St Away L 60-62
11/16 322 TN Martin Home W 77-60
11/20 352 MD E Shore Home W 80-42
11/24 36 NC State Away L 74-78
11/27 No Rank Brewton-Parker Home W 90-65
12/1 203 Citadel Away L 69-79
12/5 189 FL Atlantic Away L 64-68
12/8 131 Ga Southern Home L 74-89
12/18 46 Florida Away L 63-71
12/21 214 UNC Wilmington Home W 77-73
12/29 156 Harvard Neutral L 67-71
1/3 66 Furman Away L 58-71
1/5 37 Wofford Away L 74-78
1/10 262 W Carolina Home W 84-80
1/12 55 ETSU Home L 68-72
1/17 261 Chattanooga Away 55.5%
1/19 158 Samford Away 25.7%
1/24 318 VMI Home 84.2%
1/26 63 UNC Greensboro Away 14.8%
1/31 37 Wofford Home 19.6%
2/2 66 Furman Home 33.6%
2/9 203 Citadel Home 60.5%
2/14 262 W Carolina Away 55.1%
2/16 55 ETSU Away 12.2%
2/21 158 Samford Home 45.2%
2/23 261 Chattanooga Home 71.8%
2/28 318 VMI Away 62.8%
3/2 63 UNC Greensboro Home 35.5%