Michigan State Spartans Projections 2018


These are the latest projections for the Michigan State Spartans. All of these projections for Michigan St are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 11/12/2018.

Michigan St Record and Rankings

Record: 1-1
Projected Final Record: 20.3-9.7

Big Ten Conference Record: 0-0
Projected Final Big Ten Record: 12.5-7.5
Projected Final Rank in the Big Ten: 4

Michigan St Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 12
RPI Rank: 273
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: 7 Seed

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-1 0-0 0-0 1-0
Win % by Tier 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.000

Our current projections give the Michigan State Spartans a 94.8% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 5.2% chance at an NIT bid and a 0.0% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Michigan St’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 3.6%
NCAA #2 Seed 8.4%
NCAA #3 Seed 58.4%
NCAA #4 Seed 11.2%
NCAA #5 Seed 3.8%
NCAA #6 Seed 2.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 1.6%
NCAA #8 Seed 2.2%
NCAA #9 Seed 1.6%
NCAA #10 Seed 1.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 1.0%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 0.6%
NIT #2 Seed 0.2%
NIT #3 Seed 0.8%
NIT #4 Seed 0.2%
NIT #5 Seed 1.6%
NIT #6 Seed 1.2%
NIT #7 Seed 0.4%
NIT #8 Seed 0.2%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Michigan State Spartans. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Michigan St Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 6 Kansas Neutral L 87-92
11/11 231 FL Gulf Coast Home W 106-82
11/14 227 ULM Home 98.7%
11/18 311 Tennessee Tech Home 99.3%
11/22 42 UCLA Neutral 70.2%
11/27 38 Louisville Away 56.7%
11/30 65 Rutgers Away 59.8%
12/3 84 Iowa Home 89.4%
12/8 48 Florida Away 58.8%
12/16 286 WI Green Bay Home 98.8%
12/21 219 Oakland Home 98.6%
12/29 232 N Illinois Home 98.5%
1/2 67 Northwestern Home 86.1%
1/5 8 Ohio St Away 37.6%
1/8 14 Purdue Home 75.7%
1/13 17 Penn St Away 45.2%
1/17 13 Nebraska Away 40.2%
1/21 37 Maryland Home 81.8%
1/24 84 Iowa Away 64.5%
1/27 14 Purdue Away 48.5%
2/2 20 Indiana Home 62.8%
2/5 45 Illinois Away 55.7%
2/9 109 Minnesota Home 92.2%
2/12 39 Wisconsin Away 54%
2/17 8 Ohio St Home 61.8%
2/20 65 Rutgers Home 85.9%
2/24 9 Michigan Away 41.2%
3/2 20 Indiana Away 38.5%
3/5 13 Nebraska Home 64.5%
3/9 9 Michigan Home 65.6%