Michigan State Spartans Projections 2018


These are the latest projections for the Michigan State Spartans. All of these projections for Michigan St are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 2/21/2018.

Michigan St Record and Rankings

Record: 27-3
Projected Final Record: 27.7-3.3

Big Ten Conference Record: 15-2
Projected Final Big Ten Record: 15.7-2.3
Projected Final Rank in the Big Ten: 1

Michigan St Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 4
RPI Rank: 15
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: 3 Seed

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 3-3 5-0 10-0 9-0
Win % by Tier 0.500 1.000 1.000 1.000

Our current projections give the Michigan State Spartans a 100.0% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 0.0% chance at an NIT bid and a 0.0% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Michigan St’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 17.4%
NCAA #2 Seed 37.8%
NCAA #3 Seed 25.6%
NCAA #4 Seed 7.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 6.2%
NCAA #6 Seed 4.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 1.2%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.8%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 0.0%
NIT #2 Seed 0.0%
NIT #3 Seed 0.0%
NIT #4 Seed 0.0%
NIT #5 Seed 0.0%
NIT #6 Seed 0.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Michigan State Spartans. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Michigan St Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/10 263 North Florida Home W 98-66
11/14 6 Duke Chicago, IL L 81-88
11/19 269 Stony Brook Home W 93-71
11/23 102 DePaul Portland, OR W 73-51
11/24 129 Connecticut Portland, OR W 77-57
11/26 10 North Carolina Portland, OR W 63-45
11/30 54 Notre Dame Home W 81-63
12/3 42 Nebraska Home W 86-57
12/5 147 Rutgers Away W 62-52
12/9 272 Southern Utah Home W 88-63
12/16 154 Oakland Detroit, MI W 86-73
12/18 337 Houston Bap Home W 107-62
12/21 186 Long Beach St Home W 102-60
12/29 315 Cleveland St Home W 111-61
12/31 276 Savannah St Home W 108-52
1/4 53 Maryland Home W 91-61
1/7 14 Ohio St Away L 64-80
1/10 147 Rutgers Home W 76-72
1/13 20 Michigan Home L 72-82
1/19 76 Indiana Home W 85-57
1/22 121 Illinois Away W 87-74
1/26 93 Wisconsin Home W 76-61
1/28 53 Maryland Away W 74-68
1/31 46 Penn St Home W 76-68
2/3 76 Indiana Away W 63-60
2/6 110 Iowa Away W 96-93
2/10 7 Purdue Home W 68-65
2/13 96 Minnesota Away W 87-57
2/17 83 Northwestern Away W 65-60
2/20 121 Illinois Home W 81-61
2/25 93 Wisconsin Away 72.5%