Michigan State Spartans Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the Michigan State Spartans. All of these projections for Michigan St are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 3/17/2019.

Michigan St Record and Rankings

Record: 27-6
Projected Final Record: 27.0-6.0

Big Ten Conference Record: 16-4
Projected Final Big Ten Record: 16.0-4.0
Projected Final Rank in the Big Ten: 1

Michigan St Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 6
RPI Rank: 10
NET Rank: 8
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: 2 Seed

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 9-3 7-1 4-2 7-0
Win % by Tier 0.750 0.875 0.667 1.000

Our current projections give the Michigan State Spartans a 100.0% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 0.0% chance at an NIT bid and a 0.0% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Michigan St’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 47.2%
NCAA #2 Seed 49.2%
NCAA #3 Seed 1.4%
NCAA #4 Seed 1.4%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 0.0%
NIT #2 Seed 0.0%
NIT #3 Seed 0.0%
NIT #4 Seed 0.0%
NIT #5 Seed 0.0%
NIT #6 Seed 0.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Michigan State Spartans. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Michigan St Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 15 Kansas Neutral L 87-92
11/11 219 FL Gulf Coast Home W 106-82
11/14 165 ULM Home W 80-59
11/18 328 Tennessee Tech Home W 101-33
11/22 116 UCLA Neutal W 87-67
11/23 40 Texas Neutal W 78-68
11/27 25 Louisville Away L 78-82
11/30 82 Rutgers Away W 78-67
12/3 34 Iowa Home W 90-68
12/8 29 Florida Away W 63-59
12/16 198 WI Green Bay Home W 104-83
12/21 192 Oakland Home W 99-69
12/29 143 N Illinois Home W 88-60
1/2 97 Northwestern Home W 81-55
1/5 46 Ohio St Away W 86-77
1/8 12 Purdue Home W 77-59
1/13 53 Penn St Away W 71-56
1/17 49 Nebraska Away W 70-64
1/21 26 Maryland Home W 69-55
1/24 34 Iowa Away W 82-67
1/27 12 Purdue Away L 63-73
2/2 45 Indiana Home L 75-79
2/5 89 Illinois Away L 74-79
2/9 32 Minnesota Home W 79-55
2/12 19 Wisconsin Away W 67-59
2/17 46 Ohio St Home W 62-44
2/20 82 Rutgers Home W 71-60
2/24 8 Michigan Away W 77-70
3/2 45 Indiana Away L 62-63
3/5 49 Nebraska Home W 91-76
3/9 8 Michigan Home W 75-63
3/15 46 Ohio St Neutal W 77-70
3/16 19 Wisconsin Neutal W 67-55