Michigan Wolverines Projections 2018


These are the latest projections for the Michigan Wolverines. All of these projections for Michigan are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 2/21/2018.

Michigan Record and Rankings

Record: 22-7
Projected Final Record: 22.9-8.1

Big Ten Conference Record: 11-5
Projected Final Big Ten Record: 11.9-6.1
Projected Final Rank in the Big Ten: 5

Michigan Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 20
RPI Rank: 30
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: 6 Seed

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 3-5 3-2 6-0 9-0
Win % by Tier 0.375 0.600 1.000 1.000

Our current projections give the Michigan Wolverines a 95.8% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 4.0% chance at an NIT bid and a 0.2% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Michigan’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 1.6%
NCAA #4 Seed 4.4%
NCAA #5 Seed 10.2%
NCAA #6 Seed 17.4%
NCAA #7 Seed 18.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 17.6%
NCAA #9 Seed 13.8%
NCAA #10 Seed 10.8%
NCAA #11 Seed 2.0%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 3.4%
NIT #2 Seed 0.6%
NIT #3 Seed 0.0%
NIT #4 Seed 0.0%
NIT #5 Seed 0.0%
NIT #6 Seed 0.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Michigan Wolverines. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Michigan Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/11 263 North Florida Home W 86-66
11/13 188 C Michigan Home W 72-65
11/16 224 Southern Miss Home W 61-47
11/20 57 LSU Lahaina, HI L 75-77
11/21 No Rank Chaminade Lahaina, HI W 102-64
11/22 128 VA Commonwealth Lahaina, HI W 68-60
11/26 295 UC Riverside Home W 87-42
11/29 10 North Carolina Away L 71-86
12/2 76 Indiana Home W 69-55
12/4 14 Ohio St Away L 62-71
12/9 43 UCLA Home W 78-69
12/12 39 Texas Away W 59-52
12/16 302 Detroit Detroit, MI W 90-58
12/21 349 Alabama A&M Home W 97-47
12/30 308 Jacksonville Home W 76-51
1/2 110 Iowa Away W 75-68
1/6 121 Illinois Home W 79-69
1/9 7 Purdue Home L 69-70
1/13 4 Michigan St Away W 82-72
1/15 53 Maryland Home W 68-67
1/18 42 Nebraska Away L 52-72
1/21 147 Rutgers Home W 62-47
1/25 7 Purdue Away L 88-92
1/29 83 Northwestern Home W 58-47
2/3 96 Minnesota Home W 76-73
2/6 83 Northwestern Away L 52-61
2/11 93 Wisconsin Away W 83-72
2/14 110 Iowa Home W 74-59
2/18 14 Ohio St Home W 74-62
2/21 46 Penn St Away 42.2%
2/24 53 Maryland Away 44.9%