Michigan Wolverines Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the Michigan Wolverines. All of these projections for Michigan are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 1/20/2019.

Michigan Record and Rankings

Record: 17-1
Projected Final Record: 26.2-4.8

Big Ten Conference Record: 6-1
Projected Final Big Ten Record: 15.2-4.8
Projected Final Rank in the Big Ten: 2

Michigan Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 6
RPI Rank: 7
NET Rank: 2
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: 2 Seed

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 3-1 2-0 5-0 7-0
Win % by Tier 0.750 1.000 1.000 1.000

Our current projections give the Michigan Wolverines a 94.8% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 2.6% chance at an NIT bid and a 2.6% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Michigan’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 25.2%
NCAA #2 Seed 45.2%
NCAA #3 Seed 8.2%
NCAA #4 Seed 5.2%
NCAA #5 Seed 3.4%
NCAA #6 Seed 1.8%
NCAA #7 Seed 1.6%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #9 Seed 1.4%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 1.0%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 0.8%
NIT #2 Seed 0.0%
NIT #3 Seed 0.8%
NIT #4 Seed 0.4%
NIT #5 Seed 0.2%
NIT #6 Seed 0.2%
NIT #7 Seed 0.2%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Michigan Wolverines. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Michigan Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 259 Norfolk St Home W 63-44
11/10 184 Holy Cross Home W 56-37
11/14 25 Villanova Away W 73-46
11/17 249 G Washington Neutal W 84-61
11/18 80 Providence Neutal W 66-47
11/23 241 Chattanooga Home W 83-55
11/28 10 North Carolina Home W 84-67
12/1 15 Purdue Home W 76-57
12/4 61 Northwestern Away W 62-60
12/8 91 South Carolina Home W 89-78
12/15 252 W Michigan Home W 70-62
12/22 231 Air Force Home W 71-50
12/30 336 Binghamton Home W 74-52
1/3 83 Penn St Home W 68-55
1/6 34 Indiana Home W 74-63
1/10 125 Illinois Away W 79-69
1/13 61 Northwestern Home W 80-60
1/19 26 Wisconsin Away L 54-64
1/22 43 Minnesota Home 92%
1/25 34 Indiana Away 64.1%
1/29 39 Ohio St Home 88.3%
2/1 24 Iowa Away 60.1%
2/5 126 Rutgers Away 89.4%
2/9 26 Wisconsin Home 83.5%
2/12 83 Penn St Away 79.2%
2/16 12 Maryland Home 80.4%
2/21 43 Minnesota Away 68.3%
2/24 2 Michigan St Home 51.5%
2/28 19 Nebraska Home 80.9%
3/3 12 Maryland Away 54%
3/9 2 Michigan St Away 26.2%