Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders. All of these projections for MTSU are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 3/17/2019.

MTSU Record and Rankings

Record: 11-21
Projected Final Record: 11.0-21.0

CUSA Conference Record: 8-10
Projected Final CUSA Record: 8.0-10.0
Projected Final Rank in the CUSA: 12

MTSU Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 235
RPI Rank: 245
NET Rank: 247
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-3 0-10 3-6 6-2
Win % by Tier 0.000 0.000 0.333 0.750

Our current projections give the Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders a 0.0% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 0.0% chance at an NIT bid and a 100.0% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account MTSU’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 0.0%
NIT #2 Seed 0.0%
NIT #3 Seed 0.0%
NIT #4 Seed 0.0%
NIT #5 Seed 0.0%
NIT #6 Seed 0.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

MTSU Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 No Rank Lees-McRae Home W 91-69
11/9 No Rank Milligan Home W 102-70
11/12 55 Belmont Away L 73-92
11/16 193 Charleston So Home W 76-73
11/21 1 Virginia Neutral L 52-74
11/22 72 Butler Neutral L 53-84
11/23 135 Stanford Neutral L 54-67
12/1 67 Lipscomb Home L 74-84
12/5 161 Vanderbilt Away L 51-79
12/8 50 Murray St Home L 42-64
12/15 64 Toledo Away L 62-84
12/21 38 Mississippi Neutral L 56-74
12/30 129 Rhode Island Away L 60-72
1/3 173 Florida Intl Home L 76-83
1/5 177 FL Atlantic Home L 56-63
1/10 114 Southern Miss Away L 70-77
1/12 137 Louisiana Tech Away L 56-73
1/17 144 UT San Antonio Home W 89-86
1/19 302 UTEP Home W 75-72
1/24 237 Rice Away L 68-79
1/26 164 North Texas Away L 53-70
1/30 139 UAB Home W 71-65
2/2 139 UAB Away W 79-78
2/7 268 Charlotte Home W 71-53
2/9 87 Old Dominion Home L 50-55
2/14 105 WKU Away L 63-71
2/16 142 Marshall Away L 93-98
2/23 268 Charlotte Home W 86-67
3/3 237 Rice Away L 61-67
3/6 302 UTEP Away W 69-53
3/9 302 UTEP Home W 48-47
3/13 139 UAB Neutral L 61-70