Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders Projections 2018


These are the latest projections for the Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders. All of these projections for MTSU are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 3/19/2018.

MTSU Record and Rankings

Record: 25-8
Projected Final Record: 25.0-8.0

CUSA Conference Record: 16-3
Projected Final CUSA Record: 16.0-3.0
Projected Final Rank in the CUSA: 1

MTSU Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 65
RPI Rank: 33
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Next 4 Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 2-3 3-1 7-2 11-1
Win % by Tier 0.400 0.750 0.778 0.917

Our current projections give the Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders a 5.6% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 94.4% chance at an NIT bid and a 0.0% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account MTSU’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #11 Seed 2.2%
NCAA #12 Seed 2.8%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 13.4%
NIT #2 Seed 35.8%
NIT #3 Seed 16.0%
NIT #4 Seed 8.8%
NIT #5 Seed 14.6%
NIT #6 Seed 5.8%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

MTSU Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/10 No Rank Trevecca Naz Home W 104-52
11/13 63 Murray St Away W 72-67
11/16 88 Belmont Home L 63-69
11/18 202 Tennessee St Away W 75-65
11/21 160 FL Gulf Coast Home W 85-72
12/2 160 FL Gulf Coast Away W 81-76
12/6 86 Vanderbilt Away W 66-63
12/9 103 Mississippi Home W 77-58
12/16 14 Auburn Birmingham, AL L 70-76
12/22 212 Princeton Honolulu, HI W 69-67
12/23 39 USC Honolulu, HI L 84-89
12/25 30 Miami FL Honolulu, HI L 81-84
12/30 130 UAB Away W 63-60
1/4 251 Florida Intl Away W 71-66
1/6 259 FL Atlantic Away W 61-57
1/11 178 Louisiana Tech Home W 72-57
1/13 207 Southern Miss Home W 69-49
1/18 96 Marshall Away L 63-73
1/20 72 WKU Away W 66-62
1/25 177 UT San Antonio Home W 75-51
1/27 256 UTEP Home W 81-50
2/1 78 Old Dominion Away W 66-59
2/3 321 Charlotte Away W 78-73
2/8 314 Rice Home W 94-75
2/10 211 North Texas Home W 79-73
2/15 207 Southern Miss Away W 72-62
2/17 178 Louisiana Tech Away W 87-70
2/24 130 UAB Home W 79-54
3/1 72 WKU Home W 82-64
3/3 96 Marshall Home L 67-76
3/8 207 Southern Miss Frisco, TX L 68-71
3/13 84 Vermont Home W 91-64
3/18 33 Louisville Away L 68-84