Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders Projections 2018


These are the latest projections for the Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders. All of these projections for MTSU are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 2/19/2018.

MTSU Record and Rankings

Record: 22-5
Projected Final Record: 24.4-5.6

CUSA Conference Record: 14-1
Projected Final CUSA Record: 16.4-1.6
Projected Final Rank in the CUSA: 1

MTSU Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 48
RPI Rank: 23
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: 12 Seed

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 2-3 2-1 6-1 11-0
Win % by Tier 0.400 0.667 0.857 1.000

Our current projections give the Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders a 51.0% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 48.0% chance at an NIT bid and a 1.0% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account MTSU’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.8%
NCAA #9 Seed 2.6%
NCAA #10 Seed 6.2%
NCAA #11 Seed 12.8%
NCAA #12 Seed 28.4%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 11.0%
NIT #2 Seed 7.8%
NIT #3 Seed 7.2%
NIT #4 Seed 9.0%
NIT #5 Seed 10.0%
NIT #6 Seed 3.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

MTSU Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/10 No Rank Trevecca Naz Home W 104-52
11/13 72 Murray St Away W 72-67
11/16 85 Belmont Home L 63-69
11/18 190 Tennessee St Away W 75-65
11/21 158 FL Gulf Coast Home W 85-72
12/2 158 FL Gulf Coast Away W 81-76
12/6 84 Vanderbilt Away W 66-63
12/9 97 Mississippi Home W 77-58
12/16 8 Auburn Birmingham, AL L 70-76
12/22 212 Princeton Honolulu, HI W 69-67
12/23 51 USC Honolulu, HI L 84-89
12/25 45 Miami FL Honolulu, HI L 81-84
12/30 148 UAB Away W 63-60
1/4 258 Florida Intl Away W 71-66
1/6 250 FL Atlantic Away W 61-57
1/11 152 Louisiana Tech Home W 72-57
1/13 224 Southern Miss Home W 69-49
1/18 113 Marshall Away L 63-73
1/20 70 WKU Away W 66-62
1/25 182 UT San Antonio Home W 75-51
1/27 280 UTEP Home W 81-50
2/1 73 Old Dominion Away W 66-59
2/3 326 Charlotte Away W 78-73
2/8 330 Rice Home W 94-75
2/10 195 North Texas Home W 79-73
2/15 224 Southern Miss Away W 72-62
2/17 152 Louisiana Tech Away W 87-70
2/24 148 UAB Home 84.7%
3/1 70 WKU Home 68.3%
3/3 113 Marshall Home 84.7%