Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders. All of these projections for MTSU are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 1/17/2019.

MTSU Record and Rankings

Record: 3-14
Projected Final Record: 5.3-21.7

CUSA Conference Record: 0-4
Projected Final CUSA Record: 2.3-11.7
Projected Final Rank in the CUSA: 14

MTSU Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 323
RPI Rank: 250
NET Rank: 329
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-4 0-5 0-3 1-2
Win % by Tier 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.333

Our current projections give the Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders a 0.0% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 0.0% chance at an NIT bid and a 100.0% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account MTSU’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 0.0%
NIT #2 Seed 0.0%
NIT #3 Seed 0.0%
NIT #4 Seed 0.0%
NIT #5 Seed 0.0%
NIT #6 Seed 0.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

MTSU Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 No Rank Lees-McRae Home W 91-69
11/9 No Rank Milligan Home W 102-70
11/12 68 Belmont Away L 73-92
11/16 275 Charleston So Home W 76-73
11/21 1 Virginia Neutral L 52-74
11/22 49 Butler Neutral L 53-84
11/23 132 Stanford Neutral L 54-67
12/1 47 Lipscomb Home L 74-84
12/5 106 Vanderbilt Away L 51-79
12/8 51 Murray St Home L 42-64
12/15 75 Toledo Away L 62-84
12/21 28 Mississippi Neutral L 56-74
12/30 134 Rhode Island Away L 60-72
1/3 202 Florida Intl Home L 76-83
1/5 189 FL Atlantic Home L 56-63
1/10 159 Southern Miss Away L 70-77
1/12 114 Louisiana Tech Away L 56-73
1/17 160 UT San Antonio Home 30.1%
1/19 269 UTEP Home 47.1%
1/24 251 Rice Away 20.1%
1/26 79 North Texas Away 6.3%
1/30 173 UAB Home 32.8%
2/2 173 UAB Away 9.7%
2/7 260 Charlotte Home 47.8%
2/9 95 Old Dominion Home 19.4%
2/14 121 WKU Away 7%
2/16 110 Marshall Away 7.4%