Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders Projections 2018


These are the latest projections for the Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders. All of these projections for MTSU are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 11/12/2018.

MTSU Record and Rankings

Record: 2-0
Projected Final Record: 18.3-6.7

CUSA Conference Record: 0-0
Projected Final CUSA Record: 10.9-3.1
Projected Final Rank in the CUSA: 1

MTSU Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 34
RPI Rank: 298
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
Win % by Tier 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Our current projections give the Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders a 6.0% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 94.0% chance at an NIT bid and a 0.0% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account MTSU’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.8%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.8%
NCAA #8 Seed 1.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 1.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #11 Seed 1.0%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 1.6%
NIT #2 Seed 1.6%
NIT #3 Seed 5.0%
NIT #4 Seed 12.0%
NIT #5 Seed 39.6%
NIT #6 Seed 32.6%
NIT #7 Seed 1.6%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

MTSU Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 No Rank Lees-McRae Home W 91-69
11/9 No Rank Milligan Home W 102-70
11/12 101 Belmont Away 60.5%
11/16 221 Charleston So Home 94.4%
11/21 4 Virginia Neutral 22%
12/1 170 Lipscomb Home 92.2%
12/5 30 Vanderbilt Away 31.3%
12/8 62 Murray St Home 73.8%
12/15 102 Toledo Away 61.1%
12/21 91 Mississippi Neutral 65.2%
12/30 47 Rhode Island Away 42.5%
1/3 184 Florida Intl Home 93%
1/5 180 FL Atlantic Home 93.4%
1/10 129 Southern Miss Away 72.5%
1/12 81 Louisiana Tech Away 56.9%
1/17 141 UT San Antonio Home 92.2%
1/19 217 UTEP Home 95.1%
1/24 268 Rice Away 91.9%
1/26 110 North Texas Away 62.5%
1/30 86 UAB Home 83%
2/2 86 UAB Away 57.8%
2/7 289 Charlotte Home 98.7%
2/9 78 Old Dominion Home 81.6%
2/14 73 WKU Away 55.5%
2/16 64 Marshall Away 55.1%