Minnesota Golden Gophers Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the Minnesota Golden Gophers. All of these projections for Minnesota are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 3/17/2019.

Minnesota Record and Rankings

Record: 21-13
Projected Final Record: 21.0-13.0

Big Ten Conference Record: 9-11
Projected Final Big Ten Record: 9.0-11.0
Projected Final Rank in the Big Ten: 7

Minnesota Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 32
RPI Rank: 40
NET Rank: 57
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: 9 Seed

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 4-9 2-1 10-3 5-0
Win % by Tier 0.308 0.667 0.769 1.000

Our current projections give the Minnesota Golden Gophers a 95.4% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 4.0% chance at an NIT bid and a 0.6% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Minnesota’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #5 Seed 2.8%
NCAA #6 Seed 8.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 9.6%
NCAA #8 Seed 51.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 12.4%
NCAA #10 Seed 7.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 2.2%
NCAA #12 Seed 1.6%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 0.8%
NIT #2 Seed 0.0%
NIT #3 Seed 1.0%
NIT #4 Seed 1.0%
NIT #5 Seed 0.4%
NIT #6 Seed 0.4%
NIT #7 Seed 0.4%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Minnesota Golden Gophers. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Minnesota Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 168 NE Omaha Home W 104-76
11/12 96 Utah Home W 78-69
11/18 78 Texas A&M Neutal W 69-64
11/20 172 Santa Clara Neutal W 80-66
11/21 42 Washington Neutal W 68-66
11/26 119 Boston College Away L 56-68
11/30 76 Oklahoma St Neutal W 83-76
12/2 46 Ohio St Away L 59-79
12/5 49 Nebraska Home W 85-78
12/8 244 Arkansas St Home W 72-56
12/11 180 North Florida Home W 80-71
12/21 290 NC A&T Home W 86-67
12/30 325 Mt St Mary’s Home W 71-53
1/3 19 Wisconsin Away W 59-52
1/8 26 Maryland Home L 67-82
1/12 82 Rutgers Home W 88-70
1/16 89 Illinois Away L 68-95
1/19 53 Penn St Home W 65-64
1/22 8 Michigan Away L 57-59
1/27 34 Iowa Home W 92-87
1/30 89 Illinois Home W 86-75
2/3 12 Purdue Away L 63-73
2/6 19 Wisconsin Home L 51-56
2/9 6 Michigan St Away L 55-79
2/13 49 Nebraska Away L 61-62
2/16 45 Indiana Home W 84-63
2/21 8 Michigan Home L 60-69
2/24 82 Rutgers Away L 64-68
2/28 97 Northwestern Away W 62-50
3/5 12 Purdue Home W 73-69
3/8 26 Maryland Away L 60-69
3/14 53 Penn St Neutal W 77-72
3/15 12 Purdue Neutal W 75-73
3/16 8 Michigan Neutral L 49-76