Minnesota Golden Gophers Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the Minnesota Golden Gophers. All of these projections for Minnesota are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 1/20/2019.

Minnesota Record and Rankings

Record: 14-4
Projected Final Record: 18.7-12.3

Big Ten Conference Record: 4-3
Projected Final Big Ten Record: 8.7-11.3
Projected Final Rank in the Big Ten: 9

Minnesota Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 43
RPI Rank: 40
NET Rank: 67
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: 10 Seed

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 2-2 2-0 4-2 6-0
Win % by Tier 0.500 1.000 0.667 1.000

Our current projections give the Minnesota Golden Gophers a 59.2% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 27.8% chance at an NIT bid and a 13.0% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Minnesota’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 1.4%
NCAA #5 Seed 2.2%
NCAA #6 Seed 2.8%
NCAA #7 Seed 5.8%
NCAA #8 Seed 10.4%
NCAA #9 Seed 11.8%
NCAA #10 Seed 11.6%
NCAA #11 Seed 10.2%
NCAA #12 Seed 2.4%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 8.4%
NIT #2 Seed 6.6%
NIT #3 Seed 4.8%
NIT #4 Seed 3.8%
NIT #5 Seed 1.6%
NIT #6 Seed 2.4%
NIT #7 Seed 0.2%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Minnesota Golden Gophers. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Minnesota Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 187 NE Omaha Home W 104-76
11/12 119 Utah Home W 78-69
11/18 122 Texas A&M Neutal W 69-64
11/20 185 Santa Clara Neutal W 80-66
11/21 37 Washington Neutal W 68-66
11/26 123 Boston College Away L 56-68
11/30 73 Oklahoma St Neutal W 83-76
12/2 39 Ohio St Away L 59-79
12/5 19 Nebraska Home W 85-78
12/8 228 Arkansas St Home W 72-56
12/11 172 North Florida Home W 80-71
12/21 256 NC A&T Home W 86-67
12/30 324 Mt St Mary’s Home W 71-53
1/3 26 Wisconsin Away W 59-52
1/8 12 Maryland Home L 67-82
1/12 126 Rutgers Home W 88-70
1/16 125 Illinois Away L 68-95
1/19 83 Penn St Home W 65-64
1/22 6 Michigan Away 8%
1/27 24 Iowa Home 46.3%
1/30 125 Illinois Home 84%
2/3 15 Purdue Away 15.5%
2/6 26 Wisconsin Home 44.1%
2/9 2 Michigan St Away 7%
2/13 19 Nebraska Away 16.7%
2/16 34 Indiana Home 55.5%
2/21 6 Michigan Home 31.7%
2/24 126 Rutgers Away 59.5%
2/28 61 Northwestern Away 43.5%
3/5 15 Purdue Home 42.2%
3/8 12 Maryland Away 16.7%