Mississippi State Bulldogs Projections 2018


These are the latest projections for the Mississippi State Bulldogs. All of these projections for Mississippi St are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 2/21/2018.

Mississippi St Record and Rankings

Record: 20-8
Projected Final Record: 21.6-9.4

SEC Conference Record: 8-7
Projected Final SEC Record: 9.6-8.4
Projected Final Rank in the SEC: 6

Mississippi St Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 50
RPI Rank: 62
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: 11 Seed

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 2-6 4-2 4-0 9-0
Win % by Tier 0.250 0.667 1.000 1.000

Our current projections give the Mississippi State Bulldogs a 24.2% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 63.6% chance at an NIT bid and a 12.2% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Mississippi St’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.8%
NCAA #8 Seed 1.8%
NCAA #9 Seed 3.2%
NCAA #10 Seed 7.6%
NCAA #11 Seed 10.2%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 19.6%
NIT #2 Seed 20.6%
NIT #3 Seed 12.6%
NIT #4 Seed 8.8%
NIT #5 Seed 2.0%
NIT #6 Seed 0.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Mississippi State Bulldogs. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Mississippi St Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/10 341 Alabama St Home W 96-68
11/18 344 Florida A&M Home W 79-48
11/20 309 WI Green Bay Home W 77-68
11/22 115 SF Austin Home W 80-75
11/26 179 Jacksonville St Home W 59-56
11/30 187 N Dakota St Home W 83-59
12/3 143 Dayton Home W 61-59
12/9 No Rank North Georgia Home W 95-62
12/12 3 Cincinnati Away L 50-65
12/16 303 TN Martin Home W 92-61
12/20 311 Ark Little Rock Home W 64-48
12/23 224 Southern Miss Jackson, MS W 70-64
12/30 263 North Florida Home W 109-81
1/2 25 Arkansas Home W 78-75
1/6 97 Mississippi Away L 58-64
1/10 35 Florida Away L 54-71
1/13 8 Auburn Home L 68-76
1/16 84 Vanderbilt Home W 80-62
1/20 40 Alabama Away L 62-68
1/23 28 Kentucky Away L 65-78
1/27 38 Missouri Home W 74-62
1/31 71 South Carolina Away W 81-76
2/3 58 Georgia Home W 72-57
2/6 40 Alabama Home W 67-63
2/10 38 Missouri Away L 85-89
2/14 84 Vanderbilt Away L 80-81
2/17 97 Mississippi Home W 79-62
2/20 27 Texas A&M Away W 93-81
2/24 71 South Carolina Home 71%
2/27 15 Tennessee Home 47.1%
3/3 57 LSU Away 42.7%