Mississippi State Bulldogs Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the Mississippi State Bulldogs. All of these projections for Mississippi St are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 3/17/2019.

Mississippi St Record and Rankings

Record: 23-10
Projected Final Record: 23.0-10.0

SEC Conference Record: 10-8
Projected Final SEC Record: 10.0-8.0
Projected Final Rank in the SEC: 6

Mississippi St Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 21
RPI Rank: 23
NET Rank: 20
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: 5 Seed

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 6-8 5-2 8-0 4-0
Win % by Tier 0.429 0.714 1.000 1.000

Our current projections give the Mississippi State Bulldogs a 99.2% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 0.6% chance at an NIT bid and a 0.2% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Mississippi St’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.8%
NCAA #3 Seed 1.6%
NCAA #4 Seed 17.6%
NCAA #5 Seed 55.2%
NCAA #6 Seed 17.2%
NCAA #7 Seed 3.6%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #9 Seed 1.4%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.8%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 0.2%
NIT #2 Seed 0.0%
NIT #3 Seed 0.0%
NIT #4 Seed 0.0%
NIT #5 Seed 0.2%
NIT #6 Seed 0.2%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Mississippi State Bulldogs. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Mississippi St Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/9 131 Austin Peay Home W 95-67
11/11 197 Hartford Home W 77-59
11/16 210 Long Beach St Home W 79-51
11/19 62 Arizona St Neutral L 67-72
11/21 39 St Mary’s CA Neutal W 61-57
11/26 346 Alcorn St Home W 88-65
11/30 81 Dayton Away W 65-58
12/4 331 McNeese St Home W 90-77
12/8 31 Clemson Neutal W 82-71
12/15 24 Cincinnati Home W 70-59
12/19 14 Wofford Home W 98-87
12/22 138 Wright St Neutal W 67-63
12/29 90 BYU Home W 103-81
1/8 65 South Carolina Away L 82-87
1/12 38 Mississippi Home L 77-81
1/15 29 Florida Home W 71-68
1/19 161 Vanderbilt Away W 71-55
1/22 5 Kentucky Away L 55-76
1/26 16 Auburn Home W 92-84
1/29 54 Alabama Away L 79-83
2/2 38 Mississippi Away W 81-75
2/6 13 LSU Home L 88-92
2/9 5 Kentucky Home L 67-71
2/12 54 Alabama Home W 81-62
2/16 63 Arkansas Away W 77-67
2/20 124 Georgia Away W 68-67
2/23 65 South Carolina Home W 76-61
2/26 73 Missouri Home W 68-49
3/2 16 Auburn Away L 75-80
3/5 3 Tennessee Away L 54-71
3/9 78 Texas A&M Home W 92-81
3/14 78 Texas A&M Neutal W 80-54
3/15 3 Tennessee Neutral L 76-83