Missouri State Bears Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the Missouri State Bears. All of these projections for Missouri St are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 3/17/2019.

Missouri St Record and Rankings

Record: 16-16
Projected Final Record: 16.0-16.0

MVC Conference Record: 10-8
Projected Final MVC Record: 10.0-8.0
Projected Final Rank in the MVC: 4

Missouri St Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 175
RPI Rank: 186
NET Rank: 161
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-2 1-4 7-8 7-2
Win % by Tier 0.000 0.200 0.467 0.778

Our current projections give the Missouri State Bears a 0.0% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 0.0% chance at an NIT bid and a 100.0% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Missouri St’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 0.0%
NIT #2 Seed 0.0%
NIT #3 Seed 0.0%
NIT #4 Seed 0.0%
NIT #5 Seed 0.0%
NIT #6 Seed 0.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Missouri State Bears. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Missouri St Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 292 Oral Roberts Home W 84-50
11/9 267 Robert Morris Home W 74-60
11/11 333 Stetson Home W 83-70
11/19 49 Nebraska Neutral L 62-85
11/20 120 USC Neutral L 80-99
11/24 50 Murray St Away L 66-77
11/28 222 Air Force Away L 69-88
12/1 91 Oregon St Away L 77-101
12/5 105 WKU Home W 84-78
12/15 205 N Dakota St Away L 67-74
12/18 244 Arkansas St Away L 63-71
12/22 319 Ark Pine Bluff Home W 93-72
12/30 No Rank Wm Woods Home W 110-56
1/2 148 S Illinois Away L 70-75
1/5 209 Valparaiso Home L 66-82
1/8 189 Indiana St Away W 72-57
1/12 153 Bradley Away W 69-64
1/16 236 Evansville Home L 64-70
1/20 111 Drake Away L 63-74
1/23 130 Loyola-Chicago Home W 70-35
1/26 153 Bradley Home W 55-37
1/29 209 Valparaiso Away W 55-54
2/2 169 Northern Iowa Away L 59-64
2/6 148 S Illinois Home W 65-59
2/10 179 Illinois St Home W 66-65
2/13 236 Evansville Away W 68-56
2/17 130 Loyola-Chicago Away W 65-61
2/20 169 Northern Iowa Home L 43-63
2/23 189 Indiana St Home W 67-61
2/27 179 Illinois St Away L 57-65
3/2 111 Drake Home L 62-73
3/8 153 Bradley Neutral L 58-61