Missouri State Bears Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the Missouri State Bears. All of these projections for Missouri St are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 1/17/2019.

Missouri St Record and Rankings

Record: 8-10
Projected Final Record: 13.3-17.7

MVC Conference Record: 2-3
Projected Final MVC Record: 7.3-10.7
Projected Final Rank in the MVC: 9

Missouri St Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 196
RPI Rank: 235
NET Rank: 190
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-2 1-1 1-3 5-4
Win % by Tier 0.000 0.500 0.250 0.556

Our current projections give the Missouri State Bears a 7.2% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 0.0% chance at an NIT bid and a 92.8% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Missouri St’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 1.6%
NCAA #16 Seed 5.6%
NIT #1 Seed 0.0%
NIT #2 Seed 0.0%
NIT #3 Seed 0.0%
NIT #4 Seed 0.0%
NIT #5 Seed 0.0%
NIT #6 Seed 0.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Missouri State Bears. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Missouri St Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 276 Oral Roberts Home W 84-50
11/9 283 Robert Morris Home W 74-60
11/11 347 Stetson Home W 83-70
11/19 14 Nebraska Neutral L 62-85
11/20 126 USC Neutral L 80-99
11/24 51 Murray St Away L 66-77
11/28 232 Air Force Away L 69-88
12/1 57 Oregon St Away L 77-101
12/5 121 WKU Home W 84-78
12/15 249 N Dakota St Away L 67-74
12/18 211 Arkansas St Away L 63-71
12/22 282 Ark Pine Bluff Home W 93-72
12/30 No Rank Wm Woods Home W 110-56
1/2 148 S Illinois Away L 70-75
1/5 175 Valparaiso Home L 66-82
1/8 163 Indiana St Away W 72-57
1/12 219 Bradley Away W 69-64
1/16 171 Evansville Home L 64-70
1/20 122 Drake Away 18.4%
1/23 111 Loyola-Chicago Home 38.2%
1/26 219 Bradley Home 63.1%
1/29 175 Valparaiso Away 34.4%
2/2 191 Northern Iowa Away 39.9%
2/6 148 S Illinois Home 45.6%
2/10 172 Illinois St Home 53.3%
2/13 171 Evansville Away 33.2%
2/17 111 Loyola-Chicago Away 17.2%
2/20 191 Northern Iowa Home 58.8%
2/23 163 Indiana St Home 51.8%
2/27 172 Illinois St Away 34%
3/2 122 Drake Home 42.9%