Missouri Tigers Projections 2018


These are the latest projections for the Missouri Tigers. All of these projections for Missouri are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 11/12/2018.

Missouri Record and Rankings

Record: 1-1
Projected Final Record: 13.5-14.5

SEC Conference Record: 0-0
Projected Final SEC Record: 6.3-11.7
Projected Final Rank in the SEC: 13

Missouri Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 89
RPI Rank: 142
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-1 0-0 0-0 1-0
Win % by Tier 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.000

Our current projections give the Missouri Tigers a 12.4% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 58.6% chance at an NIT bid and a 29.0% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Missouri’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 1.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 1.8%
NCAA #3 Seed 1.4%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.8%
NCAA #5 Seed 1.6%
NCAA #6 Seed 1.6%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #8 Seed 1.2%
NCAA #9 Seed 1.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 3.0%
NIT #2 Seed 13.4%
NIT #3 Seed 15.2%
NIT #4 Seed 15.8%
NIT #5 Seed 10.6%
NIT #6 Seed 0.6%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Missouri Tigers. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Missouri Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 267 Cent Arkansas Home W 68-55
11/9 60 Iowa St Away L 59-76
11/16 302 Kennesaw Neutal 92.4%
11/27 116 Temple Home 73.3%
12/2 131 UCF Home 81.6%
12/4 127 UT Arlington Home 80.4%
12/7 312 Oral Roberts Home 98.4%
12/18 50 Xavier Home 60.1%
12/22 45 Illinois Neutal 31.8%
12/29 303 Morehead St Home 95.7%
1/8 7 Tennessee Home 20.8%
1/12 112 South Carolina Away 42.2%
1/16 57 Alabama Home 51.1%
1/19 70 Texas A&M Away 32.4%
1/23 58 Arkansas Away 23.8%
1/26 51 LSU Home 50.7%
1/30 19 Auburn Away 14.3%
2/2 30 Vanderbilt Home 39.5%
2/5 7 Tennessee Away 7.4%
2/9 70 Texas A&M Home 55.5%
2/12 58 Arkansas Home 48.2%
2/16 91 Mississippi Away 37.2%
2/19 11 Kentucky Home 25.2%
2/23 48 Florida Away 23.3%
2/26 32 Mississippi St Away 17.4%
3/2 112 South Carolina Home 63.8%
3/6 49 Georgia Away 21.8%
3/9 91 Mississippi Home 58.8%