Missouri Tigers Projections 2018


These are the latest projections for the Missouri Tigers. All of these projections for Missouri are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 2/19/2018.

Missouri Record and Rankings

Record: 18-9
Projected Final Record: 20.4-10.6

SEC Conference Record: 8-6
Projected Final SEC Record: 10.4-7.6
Projected Final Rank in the SEC: 3

Missouri Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 38
RPI Rank: 26
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: 8 Seed

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 5-7 5-1 4-1 3-0
Win % by Tier 0.417 0.833 0.800 1.000

Our current projections give the Missouri Tigers a 92.8% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 7.0% chance at an NIT bid and a 0.2% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Missouri’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 2.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 7.4%
NCAA #6 Seed 10.8%
NCAA #7 Seed 18.8%
NCAA #8 Seed 20.4%
NCAA #9 Seed 14.8%
NCAA #10 Seed 12.4%
NCAA #11 Seed 5.6%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 3.8%
NIT #2 Seed 2.2%
NIT #3 Seed 0.6%
NIT #4 Seed 0.4%
NIT #5 Seed 0.0%
NIT #6 Seed 0.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Missouri Tigers. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Missouri Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/10 81 Iowa St Home W 74-59
11/13 151 Wagner Home W 99-55
11/16 52 Utah Away L 59-77
11/20 No Rank Emporia St Home W 67-62
11/23 186 Long Beach St Kissimmee, FL W 95-58
11/24 64 St John’s Kissimmee, FL W 90-82
11/26 16 West Virginia Kissimmee, FL L 79-83
11/30 68 UCF Away W 62-59
12/5 194 Miami OH Home W 70-51
12/9 309 WI Green Bay Home W 100-77
12/16 263 North Florida Home W 85-51
12/19 115 SF Austin Home W 82-81
12/23 121 Illinois St. Louis, MO L 64-70
1/3 71 South Carolina Away W 79-68
1/6 35 Florida Home L 75-77
1/10 58 Georgia Home W 68-56
1/13 25 Arkansas Away L 63-65
1/17 15 Tennessee Home W 59-55
1/20 27 Texas A&M Away L 49-60
1/24 8 Auburn Home L 73-91
1/27 50 Mississippi St Away L 62-74
1/31 40 Alabama Away W 69-60
2/3 28 Kentucky Home W 69-60
2/6 97 Mississippi Away W 75-69
2/10 50 Mississippi St Home W 89-85
2/13 27 Texas A&M Home W 62-58
2/17 57 LSU Away L 63-64
2/20 97 Mississippi Home 83%
2/24 28 Kentucky Away 37.2%
2/27 84 Vanderbilt Away 55.1%
3/3 25 Arkansas Home 59.8%