Montana Grizzlies Projections 2018


These are the latest projections for the Montana Grizzlies. All of these projections for Montana are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 2/19/2018.

Montana Record and Rankings

Record: 20-7
Projected Final Record: 22.6-7.4

Big Sky Conference Record: 13-2
Projected Final Big Sky Record: 15.6-2.4
Projected Final Rank in the Big Sky: 1

Montana Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 91
RPI Rank: 99
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: 14 Seed

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-1 1-4 6-2 11-0
Win % by Tier 0.000 0.200 0.750 1.000

Our current projections give the Montana Grizzlies a 35.0% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 58.6% chance at an NIT bid and a 6.4% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Montana’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #12 Seed 7.8%
NCAA #13 Seed 24.8%
NCAA #14 Seed 2.4%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 0.0%
NIT #2 Seed 0.0%
NIT #3 Seed 0.0%
NIT #4 Seed 0.0%
NIT #5 Seed 2.4%
NIT #6 Seed 37.4%
NIT #7 Seed 18.8%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Montana Grizzlies. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Montana Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/10 No Rank Whitworth Home W 72-60
11/13 209 Pittsburgh Away W 83-78
11/15 46 Penn St Away L 57-70
11/20 229 Oral Roberts Malibu, CA W 69-64
11/21 100 UC Santa Barbara Malibu, CA L 73-80
11/26 No Rank Carroll MT Home W 86-75
11/29 90 Stanford Away L 54-70
12/3 328 CS Northridge Home W 86-68
12/9 135 Georgia St Away L 68-71
12/17 295 UC Riverside Home W 77-61
12/19 156 UC Irvine Home W 86-68
12/22 69 Washington Away L 63-66
12/28 329 Northern Arizona Away W 87-69
12/30 272 Southern Utah Away W 79-49
1/4 244 North Dakota Home W 109-79
1/6 123 N Colorado Home W 89-80
1/11 289 CS Sacramento Away W 78-66
1/13 157 Portland St Away W 92-89
1/20 248 Montana St Away W 67-52
1/25 272 Southern Utah Home W 71-47
1/27 329 Northern Arizona Home W 82-64
2/1 123 N Colorado Away W 88-79
2/3 244 North Dakota Away W 72-67
2/8 157 Portland St Home W 80-60
2/10 289 CS Sacramento Home W 71-69
2/15 162 E Washington Away L 65-74
2/17 114 Idaho Away L 77-79
2/24 248 Montana St Home 91.4%
3/1 125 Weber St Home 79.4%
3/3 242 Idaho St Home 92%