Montana Grizzlies Projections 2018


These are the latest projections for the Montana Grizzlies. All of these projections for Montana are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 11/12/2018.

Montana Record and Rankings

Record: 1-0
Projected Final Record: 22.7-6.3

Big Sky Conference Record: 0-0
Projected Final Big Sky Record: 16.8-3.2
Projected Final Rank in the Big Sky: 1

Montana Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 75
RPI Rank: 13
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: 11 Seed

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-0 0-0 0-0 1-0
Win % by Tier 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.000

Our current projections give the Montana Grizzlies a 100.0% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 0.0% chance at an NIT bid and a 0.0% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Montana’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.8%
NCAA #12 Seed 39.6%
NCAA #13 Seed 42.2%
NCAA #14 Seed 14.6%
NCAA #15 Seed 1.4%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.6%
NIT #1 Seed 0.0%
NIT #2 Seed 0.0%
NIT #3 Seed 0.0%
NIT #4 Seed 0.0%
NIT #5 Seed 0.0%
NIT #6 Seed 0.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Montana Grizzlies. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Montana Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/9 113 Georgia St Home W 81-74
11/12 No Rank MT Tech Home 98.8%
11/16 344 Incarnate Word Neutal 97.4%
11/28 53 Creighton Away 20.6%
12/3 No Rank Col of Idaho Home 98.8%
12/8 92 UC Irvine Away 38.5%
12/17 149 N Dakota St Home 76.7%
12/19 24 Arizona Away 15%
12/22 80 S Dakota St Away 39.5%
12/29 321 Northern Arizona Away 92%
12/31 274 Southern Utah Away 81.8%
1/3 304 CS Sacramento Home 97.7%
1/5 226 Portland St Home 92%
1/10 203 E Washington Away 69.9%
1/12 111 N Colorado Away 46.3%
1/19 216 Idaho Away 74.3%
1/24 236 Idaho St Home 92.6%
1/26 211 Weber St Home 91.8%
2/2 325 Montana St Away 92%
2/7 216 Idaho Home 92.2%
2/9 203 E Washington Home 91.8%
2/14 211 Weber St Away 69.9%
2/16 236 Idaho St Away 77.2%
2/23 325 Montana St Home 98.7%
2/25 111 N Colorado Home 71%
3/2 274 Southern Utah Home 93.8%
3/4 321 Northern Arizona Home 98.7%
3/7 226 Portland St Away 72.5%
3/9 304 CS Sacramento Away 88.1%