Montana Grizzlies Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the Montana Grizzlies. All of these projections for Montana are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 1/17/2019.

Montana Record and Rankings

Record: 11-6
Projected Final Record: 21.7-9.3

Big Sky Conference Record: 4-2
Projected Final Big Sky Record: 14.7-5.3
Projected Final Rank in the Big Sky: 1

Montana Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 142
RPI Rank: 138
NET Rank: 122
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: 16 Seed

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-2 1-2 4-0 4-2
Win % by Tier 0.000 0.333 1.000 0.667

Our current projections give the Montana Grizzlies a 47.2% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 26.4% chance at an NIT bid and a 26.4% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Montana’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #12 Seed 1.8%
NCAA #13 Seed 4.4%
NCAA #14 Seed 25.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 15.6%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.2%
NIT #1 Seed 0.0%
NIT #2 Seed 0.0%
NIT #3 Seed 0.0%
NIT #4 Seed 0.0%
NIT #5 Seed 0.6%
NIT #6 Seed 1.8%
NIT #7 Seed 16.4%
NIT #8 Seed 7.6%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Montana Grizzlies. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Montana Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/9 71 Georgia St Home W 81-74
11/12 No Rank MT Tech Home W 79-55
11/16 337 Incarnate Word Neutal W 93-66
11/17 187 Miami OH Neutal W 73-71
11/18 131 Ga Southern Neutral L 77-80
11/28 54 Creighton Away L 72-98
12/3 No Rank Col of Idaho Home W 80-52
12/8 112 UC Irvine Away L 51-60
12/17 249 N Dakota St Home W 60-53
12/19 44 Arizona Away L 42-61
12/22 137 S Dakota St Away W 85-74
12/29 287 Northern Arizona Away W 86-73
12/31 241 Southern Utah Away W 89-76
1/3 303 CS Sacramento Home W 87-56
1/5 289 Portland St Home L 74-77
1/10 297 E Washington Away L 71-78
1/12 200 N Colorado Away W 88-64
1/19 335 Idaho Away 81.4%
1/24 244 Idaho St Home 86.6%
1/26 177 Weber St Home 75.3%
2/2 250 Montana St Away 61.8%
2/7 335 Idaho Home 93.4%
2/9 297 E Washington Home 90.6%
2/14 177 Weber St Away 48.5%
2/16 244 Idaho St Away 61.1%
2/23 250 Montana St Home 85.9%
2/25 200 N Colorado Home 80.4%
3/2 241 Southern Utah Home 85.4%
3/4 287 Northern Arizona Home 87.8%
3/7 289 Portland St Away 63.4%
3/9 303 CS Sacramento Away 66.4%