Mount St. Mary’s Mountaineers Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the Mount St. Mary’s Mountaineers. All of these projections for Mt St Mary’s are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 1/20/2019.

Mt St Mary’s Record and Rankings

Record: 4-14
Projected Final Record: 8.2-22.8

NEC Conference Record: 1-4
Projected Final NEC Record: 5.2-12.8
Projected Final Rank in the NEC: 10

Mt St Mary’s Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 324
RPI Rank: 271
NET Rank: 336
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-5 0-1 1-2 1-6
Win % by Tier 0.000 0.000 0.333 0.143

Our current projections give the Mount St. Mary’s Mountaineers a 0.0% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 0.0% chance at an NIT bid and a 100.0% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Mt St Mary’s’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 0.0%
NIT #2 Seed 0.0%
NIT #3 Seed 0.0%
NIT #4 Seed 0.0%
NIT #5 Seed 0.0%
NIT #6 Seed 0.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Mount St. Mary’s Mountaineers. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Mt St Mary’s Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 33 NC State Away L 55-105
11/9 58 Hofstra Away L 61-79
11/14 99 Marshall Away L 75-98
11/18 12 Maryland Away L 77-92
11/21 256 NC A&T Home L 60-74
11/25 325 Morgan St Away L 68-78
12/1 278 Loyola MD Away L 65-75
12/5 38 St John’s Away L 71-85
12/8 146 Lehigh Home L 78-85
12/15 No Rank Wilson Home W 74-59
12/18 236 American Univ Away W 56-55
12/22 No Rank St Mary’s MD Home W 83-44
12/30 43 Minnesota Away L 53-71
1/3 243 St Francis PA Away L 69-80
1/5 262 Robert Morris Away L 59-62
1/10 317 Bryant Home L 59-66
1/12 247 Central Conn Home L 68-77
1/19 245 Wagner Away W 70-56
1/21 268 F Dickinson Away 17.4%
1/24 253 LIU Brooklyn Home 41.8%
1/26 219 St Francis NY Home 39.2%
1/31 248 Sacred Heart Home 41.2%
2/2 243 St Francis PA Home 41.2%
2/7 253 LIU Brooklyn Away 17.7%
2/9 248 Sacred Heart Away 17%
2/14 262 Robert Morris Home 43.5%
2/16 245 Wagner Home 42.2%
2/21 247 Central Conn Away 17.4%
2/23 317 Bryant Away 37.6%
2/28 268 F Dickinson Home 43.3%
3/2 219 St Francis NY Away 16.2%