Mount St. Mary’s Mountaineers Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the Mount St. Mary’s Mountaineers. All of these projections for Mt St Mary’s are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 3/17/2019.

Mt St Mary’s Record and Rankings

Record: 9-22
Projected Final Record: 9.0-22.0

NEC Conference Record: 6-12
Projected Final NEC Record: 6.0-12.0
Projected Final Rank in the NEC: 9

Mt St Mary’s Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 325
RPI Rank: 297
NET Rank: 336
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-4 0-2 2-4 5-12
Win % by Tier 0.000 0.000 0.333 0.294

Our current projections give the Mount St. Mary’s Mountaineers a 0.0% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 0.0% chance at an NIT bid and a 100.0% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Mt St Mary’s’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 0.0%
NIT #2 Seed 0.0%
NIT #3 Seed 0.0%
NIT #4 Seed 0.0%
NIT #5 Seed 0.0%
NIT #6 Seed 0.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Mount St. Mary’s Mountaineers. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Mt St Mary’s Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 33 NC State Away L 55-105
11/9 95 Hofstra Away L 61-79
11/14 142 Marshall Away L 75-98
11/18 26 Maryland Away L 77-92
11/21 290 NC A&T Home L 60-74
11/25 343 Morgan St Away L 68-78
12/1 279 Loyola MD Away L 65-75
12/5 61 St John’s Away L 71-85
12/8 159 Lehigh Home L 78-85
12/15 No Rank Wilson Home W 74-59
12/18 224 American Univ Away W 56-55
12/22 No Rank St Mary’s MD Home W 83-44
12/30 32 Minnesota Away L 53-71
1/3 242 St Francis PA Away L 69-80
1/5 267 Robert Morris Away L 59-62
1/10 320 Bryant Home L 59-66
1/12 322 Central Conn Home L 68-77
1/19 299 Wagner Away W 70-56
1/21 202 F Dickinson Away L 69-87
1/24 263 LIU Brooklyn Home W 74-72
1/26 272 St Francis NY Home L 67-74
1/31 262 Sacred Heart Home L 79-87
2/2 242 St Francis PA Home L 63-72
2/7 263 LIU Brooklyn Away L 62-77
2/9 262 Sacred Heart Away W 76-73
2/14 267 Robert Morris Home W 76-62
2/16 299 Wagner Home L 56-58
2/21 322 Central Conn Away W 79-66
2/23 320 Bryant Away L 58-81
2/28 202 F Dickinson Home L 59-65
3/2 272 St Francis NY Away W 73-71