Mountain West Basketball Projections 2018


These are the latest Mountain West Conference projections based on our NCAA College Basketball Ratings. These projections for the Mountain West are based on actual results of previous games and our predicted results for games upcoming in the future. The rank (or seed) for each team is only based upon their projected finish in the conference. Our latest update to these projections was done on 2/21/2018.

Mountain West Projected Conference Standings

Rank Team All Games Conference Games
Actual Projected Actual Projected
Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses
1 Nevada 23 5 26.1 5.9 12 2 15.1 2.9
2 Boise St 21 6 22.9 7.1 11 4 12.9 5.1
3 Fresno St 19 8 20.8 9.2 9 5 10.8 6.2
4 New Mexico 14 14 15.5 15.5 9 6 10.5 7.5
5 UNLV 19 8 21.1 9.9 8 6 10.1 7.9
6 San Diego St 15 10 17.6 11.4 7 7 9.6 8.4
7 Wyoming 17 11 18.2 12.8 8 7 9.2 8.8
8 Utah St 14 14 15.7 15.3 7 8 8.7 9.3
9 Air Force 10 15 11.6 17.4 4 9 5.6 11.4
10 Colorado St 11 17 11.8 19.2 4 11 4.8 13.2
11 San Jose St 2 22 2.6 25.4 0 14 0.6 17.4

Projected Mountain West Tournament Bids

Our full list of NCAA Tournament and NIT Tournament projections can be found here. The below list contains our latest NCAA Tournament projections for teams within the Mountain West Conference. The “Bracket Rating” is based on a proprietary formula that projects a team’s bracket seeding by the NCAA Tournament committee.

Team Seed Bracket Rating
Nevada 8 6.511

Mountain West Conference Tournament Predictions

Below are the odds to advance to each stage of the Mountain West Conference Tournament. The table below is based on 1,000 simulations. Another caveat is that this simulation is based on the projected final seed of each Mountain West team. The Mountain West Conference Basketball Tournament will be held on the campus of UNLV.

Regular Season Champion: TBD
Tournament Site: Thomas & Mack Center (Las Vegas, NV)
First Round: March 7th, 2018
Quarterfinals: March 8th, 2018
Semifinals: March 9th, 2018
Finals: March 10th, 2018

Seed Team To Advance To
Qtrs Semis Finals To Win
1
Nevada
100%
86.4%
64.8%
44.9%
2
Boise St
100%
74.6%
41.6%
17.3%
3
Fresno St
100%
53.1%
28.1%
11.7%
4
New Mexico
100%
34.3%
8.3%
2.4%
5
UNLV
100%
65.7%
22.6%
12.1%
6
San Diego St
91.1%
46.3%
23.7%
9.4%
7
Wyoming
70.3%
20.6%
6.2%
1.2%
8
Utah St
70.7%
11%
4%
0.8%
9
Air Force
29.3%
2.6%
0.3%
0.1%
10
Colorado St
29.7%
4.8%
0.4%
0.1%
11
San Jose St
8.9%
0.6%
0%
0%

Mountain West Upcoming Conference Games with Projections

Every projection takes into account the ability of each team, home court advantage, and other factors that make for accurate predictions.

Date Away Team Away Prob to Win Home Team Home Prob to Win Game Projection
2/21 San Diego St 74.3% Air Force 25.7% San Diego St wins by 7
2/21 Boise St 70.3% Colorado St 29.7% Boise St wins by 7
2/21 Fresno St 42.5% UNLV 57.5% UNLV wins by 3
2/21 San Jose St 1.3% Nevada 98.7% Nevada wins by 23
2/24 Utah St 57.8% Air Force 42.2% Utah St wins by 3
2/24 Wyoming 19.6% Fresno St 80.4% Fresno St wins by 9
2/24 San Diego St 86.1% San Jose St 13.9% San Diego St wins by 11
2/25 UNLV 51.8% New Mexico 48.2% UNLV wins by 1
2/25 Colorado St 6.3% Nevada 93.8% Nevada wins by 17
2/27 Boise St 39.9% San Diego St 60.1% San Diego St wins by 4
2/28 New Mexico 56.9% Colorado St 43.1% New Mexico wins by 3
2/28 Air Force 13.2% Wyoming 86.8% Wyoming wins by 12
2/28 Nevada 58.2% UNLV 41.8% Nevada wins by 3
2/28 Utah St 69.1% San Jose St 30.9% Utah St wins by 6
3/3 San Jose St 18.4% Air Force 81.6% Air Force wins by 9
3/3 Wyoming 18.4% Boise St 81.6% Boise St wins by 9
3/3 Fresno St 55.9% New Mexico 44.1% Fresno St wins by 2
3/3 UNLV 55.5% Utah St 44.5% UNLV wins by 2

Projections in Other Conferences

For other conferences, please see below.

AAC ACC America East Atlantic 10
Atlantic Sun Big 12 Big East Big Sky
Big South Big Ten Big West Colonial
Conference USA Horizon Ivy League MAAC
MAC MEAC MWC MVC
NEC OVC Pac-12 Patriot
Southern SEC Summit Southland
Southwestern Sun Belt WAC WCC