Mountain West Basketball Projections 2018-2019


These are the latest Mountain West Conference projections based on our NCAA College Basketball Ratings. These projections for the Mountain West are based on actual results of previous games and our predicted results for games upcoming in the future. The rank (or seed) for each team is only based upon their projected finish in the conference. Our latest update to these projections was done on 3/17/2019.

Mountain West Projected Standings

Rank Team All Games Conference Games
Actual Projected Actual Projected
Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses
1 Nevada 29 4 29 4 15 3 15 3
2 Utah St 28 6 28 6 15 3 15 3
3 Fresno St 23 9 23 9 13 5 13 5
4 San Diego St 21 13 21 13 11 7 11 7
5 UNLV 17 14 17 14 11 7 11 7
6 Air Force 14 18 14 18 8 10 8 10
7 New Mexico 14 18 14 18 7 11 7 11
8 Colorado St 12 20 12 20 7 11 7 11
9 Boise St 13 20 13 20 7 11 7 11
10 Wyoming 8 24 8 24 4 14 4 14
11 San Jose St 4 27 4 27 1 17 1 17

Projected Mountain West Tournament Bids

Our full list of NCAA Tournament and NIT Tournament projections can be found here. The below list contains our latest NCAA Tournament projections for teams within the Mountain West Conference. The “Bracket Rating” is based on a proprietary formula that projects a team’s bracket seeding by the NCAA Tournament committee.

Team Seed Bracket Rating
Nevada 7 7.611
Utah St 9 6.02

Projected Mountain West Regular Season Finish

Based on 100 simulations, this is the projected place where each team finishes in the Mountain West Conference standings.

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Top 8
Nevada 100% 0% 0% 0% 100%
Utah St 0% 100% 0% 0% 100%
Fresno St 0% 0% 100% 0% 100%
San Diego St 0% 0% 0% 100% 100%
UNLV 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%
Air Force 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%
New Mexico 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%
Colorado St 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%
Boise St 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Wyoming 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
San Jose St 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Mountain West Conference Tournament Predictions

Below are the odds to advance to each stage of the Mountain West Conference Tournament. The table below is based on 1,000 simulations. The Mountain West Conference Basketball Tournament will be held on the campus of UNLV. In 2020, the tournament will be held one week earlier than the 2019 edition.

Regular Season Champion: Nevada
Tournament Site: Thomas & Mack Center (Las Vegas, NV)
First Round: March 13th, 2019
Quarterfinals: March 14th, 2019
Semifinals: March 15th, 2019
Finals: March 16th, 2019

Seed Team To Advance To
Qtrs Semis Finals To Win
1
Nevada
100%
100%
0%
0%
2
Utah St
100%
100%
100%
100%
3
Fresno St
100%
100%
0%
0%
4
San Diego St
100%
100%
100%
0%
5
UNLV
100%
0%
0%
0%
6
Air Force
100%
0%
0%
0%
7
New Mexico
100%
0%
0%
0%
8
Colorado St
0%
0%
0%
0%
9
Boise St
100%
0%
0%
0%
10
Wyoming
0%
0%
0%
0%
11
San Jose St
0%
0%
0%
0%

Mountain West Upcoming Conference Games with Projections

Every projection takes into account the ability of each team, home court advantage, and other factors that make for accurate predictions.

Date Away Team Away Prob to Win Home Team Home Prob to Win Game Projection

Projections in Other Conferences

For other conferences, please see below.

AAC ACC America East Atlantic 10
Atlantic Sun Big 12 Big East Big Sky
Big South Big Ten Big West Colonial
Conference USA Horizon Ivy League MAAC
MAC MEAC MWC MVC
NEC OVC Pac-12 Patriot
Southern SEC Summit Southland
Southwestern Sun Belt WAC WCC