Mountain West Basketball Projections 2018-2019


These are the latest Mountain West Conference projections based on our NCAA College Basketball Ratings. These projections for the Mountain West are based on actual results of previous games and our predicted results for games upcoming in the future. The rank (or seed) for each team is only based upon their projected finish in the conference. Our latest update to these projections was done on 12/10/2018.

Mountain West Projected Standings

Rank Team All Games Conference Games
Actual Projected Actual Projected
Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses
1 Nevada 10 0 29 2 0 0 16.1 1.9
2 Utah St 8 2 23.4 7.6 0 0 13.2 4.8
3 Fresno St 7 2 21.4 8.6 0 0 11.7 6.3
4 San Diego St 5 4 19.5 11.5 0 0 11.2 6.8
5 UNLV 4 4 14.3 13.7 0 0 9.4 8.6
6 New Mexico 4 3 15.7 14.3 0 0 8.7 9.3
7 Boise St 3 5 12.8 18.2 0 0 7.8 10.2
8 Wyoming 3 6 11.3 18.7 0 0 6.4 11.6
9 Colorado St 5 5 12.3 18.7 0 0 6.1 11.9
10 Air Force 4 6 10.2 19.8 0 0 5.5 12.5
11 San Jose St 2 6 5.6 24.4 0 0 2.9 15.1

Projected Mountain West Tournament Bids

Our full list of NCAA Tournament and NIT Tournament projections can be found here. The below list contains our latest NCAA Tournament projections for teams within the Mountain West Conference. The “Bracket Rating” is based on a proprietary formula that projects a team’s bracket seeding by the NCAA Tournament committee.

Team Seed Bracket Rating
Nevada 2 10.399
Utah St 11 5.236

Projected Mountain West Regular Season Finish

Based on 100 simulations, this is the projected place where each team finishes in the Mountain West Conference standings.

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Top 8
Nevada 84% 12% 2% 2% 100%
Utah St 9% 54% 23% 10% 100%
Fresno St 6% 19% 30% 29% 100%
San Diego St 1% 6% 26% 29% 100%
UNLV 0% 8% 14% 15% 94%
New Mexico 0% 0% 4% 8% 91%
Boise St 0% 0% 1% 3% 79%
Wyoming 0% 1% 0% 1% 51%
Colorado St 0% 0% 0% 1% 44%
Air Force 0% 0% 0% 2% 35%
San Jose St 0% 0% 0% 0% 6%

Mountain West Conference Tournament Predictions

Below are the odds to advance to each stage of the Mountain West Conference Tournament. The table below is based on 1,000 simulations. The Mountain West Conference Basketball Tournament will be held on the campus of UNLV.

Regular Season Champion: TBD
Tournament Site: Thomas & Mack Center (Las Vegas, NV)
First Round: March 13th, 2019
Quarterfinals: March 14th, 2019
Semifinals: March 15th, 2019
Finals: March 16th, 2019

Coming Soon!

Mountain West Upcoming Conference Games with Projections

Every projection takes into account the ability of each team, home court advantage, and other factors that make for accurate predictions.

Date Away Team Away Prob to Win Home Team Home Prob to Win Game Projection
1/2 Boise St 48.5% Wyoming 51.5% Wyoming wins by 1
1/2 Colorado St 18.2% UNLV 81.8% UNLV wins by 10
1/2 Fresno St 92% San Jose St 8% Fresno St wins by 14
1/2 Utah St 11.7% Nevada 88.3% Nevada wins by 12
1/2 New Mexico 61.5% Air Force 38.5% New Mexico wins by 4
1/5 Colorado St 8% Fresno St 92% Fresno St wins by 14
1/5 Air Force 2.9% Utah St 97.1% Utah St wins by 19
1/5 San Diego St 61.8% Boise St 38.2% San Diego St wins by 4
1/5 Wyoming 17.2% UNLV 82.8% UNLV wins by 10
1/5 Nevada 91.7% New Mexico 8.3% Nevada wins by 13
1/8 Wyoming 8.3% San Diego St 91.7% San Diego St wins by 13
1/8 UNLV 37.9% New Mexico 62.1% New Mexico wins by 4
1/8 Air Force 28.6% Colorado St 71.4% Colorado St wins by 7
1/9 Fresno St 25.2% Utah St 74.8% Utah St wins by 8
1/9 San Jose St 0.5% Nevada 99.5% Nevada wins by 30
1/12 San Diego St 74.8% Air Force 25.2% San Diego St wins by 8
1/12 Boise St 71.2% San Jose St 28.8% Boise St wins by 7
1/12 Utah St 80.9% Wyoming 19.1% Utah St wins by 9

Projections in Other Conferences

For other conferences, please see below.

AAC ACC America East Atlantic 10
Atlantic Sun Big 12 Big East Big Sky
Big South Big Ten Big West Colonial
Conference USA Horizon Ivy League MAAC
MAC MEAC MWC MVC
NEC OVC Pac-12 Patriot
Southern SEC Summit Southland
Southwestern Sun Belt WAC WCC