Mountain West Basketball Projections 2018-2019


These are the latest Mountain West Conference projections based on our NCAA College Basketball Ratings. These projections for the Mountain West are based on actual results of previous games and our predicted results for games upcoming in the future. The rank (or seed) for each team is only based upon their projected finish in the conference. Our latest update to these projections was done on 2/21/2019.

Mountain West Projected Standings

Rank Team All Games Conference Games
Actual Projected Actual Projected
Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses
1 Nevada 24 2 28.1 2.9 11 2 15.1 2.9
2 Utah St 21 6 23.7 7.3 11 3 13.7 4.3
3 Fresno St 19 7 21.5 8.5 10 4 12.5 5.5
4 San Diego St 17 9 19.3 11.7 9 4 11.3 6.7
5 UNLV 15 11 16.7 13.3 9 5 10.7 7.3
6 Boise St 11 15 13.6 17.4 6 7 8.6 9.4
7 Air Force 11 15 12.8 17.2 6 8 7.8 10.2
8 New Mexico 11 15 13.7 16.3 5 9 7.7 10.3
9 Colorado St 10 16 12.2 18.8 5 8 7.2 10.8
10 Wyoming 6 20 7.6 23.4 2 11 3.6 14.4
11 San Jose St 3 22 3.7 26.3 0 13 0.7 17.3

Projected Mountain West Tournament Bids

Our full list of NCAA Tournament and NIT Tournament projections can be found here. The below list contains our latest NCAA Tournament projections for teams within the Mountain West Conference. The “Bracket Rating” is based on a proprietary formula that projects a team’s bracket seeding by the NCAA Tournament committee.

Team Seed Bracket Rating
Nevada 6 8.799
Utah St Last 4 Out 4.294

Projected Mountain West Regular Season Finish

Based on 100 simulations, this is the projected place where each team finishes in the Mountain West Conference standings.

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Top 8
Nevada 85% 14% 1% 0% 100%
Utah St 15% 66% 15% 4% 100%
Fresno St 0% 13% 62% 22% 100%
San Diego St 0% 7% 17% 37% 100%
UNLV 0% 0% 5% 35% 100%
Boise St 0% 0% 0% 2% 91%
Air Force 0% 0% 0% 0% 86%
New Mexico 0% 0% 0% 0% 67%
Colorado St 0% 0% 0% 0% 56%
Wyoming 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
San Jose St 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Mountain West Conference Tournament Predictions

Below are the odds to advance to each stage of the Mountain West Conference Tournament. The table below is based on 1,000 simulations. The Mountain West Conference Basketball Tournament will be held on the campus of UNLV. In 2020, the tournament will be held one week earlier than the 2019 edition.

Regular Season Champion: TBD
Tournament Site: Thomas & Mack Center (Las Vegas, NV)
First Round: March 13th, 2019
Quarterfinals: March 14th, 2019
Semifinals: March 15th, 2019
Finals: March 16th, 2019

Seed Team To Advance To
Qtrs Semis Finals To Win
1
Nevada
100%
92%
75.8%
56%
2
Utah St
100%
85.6%
60.9%
25.5%
3
Fresno St
100%
71%
26.3%
9.3%
4
San Diego St
100%
61.5%
14.6%
4.8%
5
UNLV
97.6%
35.7%
7.3%
1.4%
6
Boise St
89.5%
26.9%
8.4%
1.9%
7
Air Force
56.4%
7.1%
1.4%
0.1%
8
New Mexico
63.5%
8.9%
2.7%
0.9%
9
Colorado St
57%
8.8%
2.2%
0.1%
10
Wyoming
27.6%
1.9%
0.4%
0%
11
San Jose St
8.4%
0.6%
0%
0%

Mountain West Upcoming Conference Games with Projections

Every projection takes into account the ability of each team, home court advantage, and other factors that make for accurate predictions.

Date Away Team Away Prob to Win Home Team Home Prob to Win Game Projection
2/23 San Jose St 8% Air Force 92% Air Force wins by 14
2/23 Utah St 66.4% Boise St 33.6% Utah St wins by 6
2/23 Wyoming 14.8% Colorado St 85.2% Colorado St wins by 11
2/23 San Diego St 50.4% UNLV 49.6% San Diego St wins by 1
2/23 Fresno St 12.7% Nevada 87.3% Nevada wins by 12
2/26 San Diego St 16.5% Utah St 83.5% Utah St wins by 10
2/27 Colorado St 25.7% Boise St 74.3% Boise St wins by 7
2/27 Wyoming 6.3% Fresno St 93.8% Fresno St wins by 17
2/27 UNLV 7% Nevada 93% Nevada wins by 16
2/27 New Mexico 80.2% San Jose St 19.8% New Mexico wins by 9
3/2 Air Force 58.2% Wyoming 41.8% Air Force wins by 3
3/2 Boise St 36.2% UNLV 63.8% UNLV wins by 5
3/2 San Jose St 1.5% San Diego St 98.5% San Diego St wins by 21
3/2 Nevada 54.8% Utah St 45.2% Nevada wins by 2
3/2 Colorado St 32.1% New Mexico 68% New Mexico wins by 6
3/5 Utah St 75.7% Colorado St 24.3% Utah St wins by 8
3/5 Nevada 88.1% Air Force 11.9% Nevada wins by 12
3/6 Fresno St 43.9% San Diego St 56.1% San Diego St wins by 2

Projections in Other Conferences

For other conferences, please see below.

AAC ACC America East Atlantic 10
Atlantic Sun Big 12 Big East Big Sky
Big South Big Ten Big West Colonial
Conference USA Horizon Ivy League MAAC
MAC MEAC MWC MVC
NEC OVC Pac-12 Patriot
Southern SEC Summit Southland
Southwestern Sun Belt WAC WCC