Murray State Racers Projections 2018


These are the latest projections for the Murray State Racers. All of these projections for Murray St are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 11/12/2018.

Murray St Record and Rankings

Record: 1-0
Projected Final Record: 24.6-4.4

OVC Conference Record: 0-0
Projected Final OVC Record: 16.6-1.4
Projected Final Rank in the OVC: 1

Murray St Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 62
RPI Rank: 13
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: 13 Seed

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-0 0-0 0-0 1-0
Win % by Tier 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.000

Our current projections give the Murray State Racers a 100.0% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 0.0% chance at an NIT bid and a 0.0% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Murray St’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #11 Seed 2.8%
NCAA #12 Seed 62.2%
NCAA #13 Seed 28.6%
NCAA #14 Seed 3.6%
NCAA #15 Seed 1.4%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 0.0%
NIT #2 Seed 0.0%
NIT #3 Seed 0.0%
NIT #4 Seed 0.0%
NIT #5 Seed 0.0%
NIT #6 Seed 0.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Murray State Racers. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Murray St Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/10 135 Wright St Home W 73-54
11/16 No Rank Spalding Home 99.3%
11/24 151 Missouri St Home 85.4%
11/26 57 Alabama Away 36.9%
12/1 181 Prairie View Home 86.8%
12/8 34 MTSU Away 26.2%
12/12 158 S Illinois Away 64.5%
12/15 334 Jackson St Home 98.7%
12/18 189 Evansville Home 88.9%
12/22 19 Auburn Away 17.4%
12/29 No Rank Bethel TN Home 99.3%
1/3 303 Morehead St Home 98.5%
1/5 278 E Kentucky Home 97.7%
1/10 313 TN Martin Away 92.1%
1/12 305 SE Missouri St Away 92.1%
1/17 299 E Illinois Away 91.7%
1/19 335 SIUE Away 93.1%
1/24 101 Belmont Home 78.2%
1/26 258 Tennessee St Home 93.4%
1/31 225 Jacksonville St Away 79.2%
2/2 311 Tennessee Tech Away 92.4%
2/7 299 E Illinois Home 98.5%
2/9 335 SIUE Home 98.8%
2/14 249 Austin Peay Away 82.1%
2/16 278 E Kentucky Away 89.4%
2/21 313 TN Martin Home 98.6%
2/23 305 SE Missouri St Home 98.6%
2/28 303 Morehead St Away 91.7%
3/2 249 Austin Peay Home 93.4%