Murray State Racers Projections 2018


These are the latest projections for the Murray State Racers. All of these projections for Murray St are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 2/21/2018.

Murray St Record and Rankings

Record: 22-5
Projected Final Record: 23.5-5.5

OVC Conference Record: 14-2
Projected Final OVC Record: 15.5-2.5
Projected Final Rank in the OVC: 1

Murray St Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 72
RPI Rank: 71
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: 13 Seed

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-2 2-2 5-1 13-0
Win % by Tier 0.000 0.500 0.833 1.000

Our current projections give the Murray State Racers a 44.6% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 19.6% chance at an NIT bid and a 35.8% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Murray St’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 6.2%
NCAA #12 Seed 38.0%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 0.0%
NIT #2 Seed 0.0%
NIT #3 Seed 0.4%
NIT #4 Seed 1.6%
NIT #5 Seed 10.0%
NIT #6 Seed 7.4%
NIT #7 Seed 0.2%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Murray State Racers. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Murray St Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/10 No Rank Brescia Home W 118-61
11/13 48 MTSU Home L 67-72
11/18 133 Wright St Away W 80-61
11/25 105 S Illinois Home W 81-73
11/28 No Rank Harris-Stowe Home W 85-56
12/2 344 Florida A&M Home W 80-59
12/9 131 Illinois St Away W 78-72
12/12 120 St Louis Away L 55-69
12/16 318 Marist Home W 100-63
12/19 8 Auburn Home L 77-81
12/22 302 Detroit Away W 81-72
12/28 260 E Illinois Home W 80-52
12/30 293 Edwardsville Home W 87-63
1/4 237 SE Missouri St Home W 89-73
1/6 303 TN Martin Home W 82-68
1/11 179 Jacksonville St Away L 71-76
1/13 192 Tennessee Tech Away W 71-45
1/18 85 Belmont Away L 72-79
1/20 190 Tennessee St Away W 76-57
1/25 306 Morehead St Home W 87-81
1/27 283 E Kentucky Home W 88-73
2/1 237 SE Missouri St Away W 87-75
2/3 303 TN Martin Away W 66-53
2/8 183 Austin Peay Home W 84-63
2/10 293 Edwardsville Away W 75-66
2/15 179 Jacksonville St Home W 68-60
2/17 192 Tennessee Tech Home W 75-65
2/22 260 E Illinois Away 79.7%
2/24 183 Austin Peay Away 66%