Murray State Racers Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the Murray State Racers. All of these projections for Murray St are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 3/17/2019.

Murray St Record and Rankings

Record: 27-4
Projected Final Record: 27.0-4.0

OVC Conference Record: 16-2
Projected Final OVC Record: 16.0-2.0
Projected Final Rank in the OVC: 2

Murray St Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 50
RPI Rank: 37
NET Rank: 45
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: 12 Seed

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 1-2 2-2 6-0 16-0
Win % by Tier 0.333 0.500 1.000 1.000

Our current projections give the Murray State Racers a 100.0% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 0.0% chance at an NIT bid and a 0.0% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Murray St’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.8%
NCAA #11 Seed 2.4%
NCAA #12 Seed 87.2%
NCAA #13 Seed 8.8%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 0.0%
NIT #2 Seed 0.0%
NIT #3 Seed 0.0%
NIT #4 Seed 0.0%
NIT #5 Seed 0.0%
NIT #6 Seed 0.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Murray State Racers. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Murray St Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/10 138 Wright St Home W 73-54
11/16 No Rank Spalding Home W 106-36
11/24 175 Missouri St Home W 77-66
11/26 54 Alabama Away L 72-78
12/1 187 Prairie View Home W 83-67
12/8 235 MTSU Away W 64-42
12/12 148 S Illinois Away W 80-52
12/15 327 Jackson St Home W 74-57
12/18 236 Evansville Home W 66-64
12/22 16 Auburn Away L 88-93
12/29 No Rank Bethel TN Home W 110-82
1/3 255 Morehead St Home W 90-69
1/5 256 E Kentucky Home W 97-85
1/10 283 TN Martin Away W 98-77
1/12 312 SE Missouri St Away W 85-67
1/17 294 E Illinois Away W 83-61
1/19 323 SIUE Away W 82-72
1/24 55 Belmont Home L 66-79
1/26 314 Tennessee St Home W 100-62
1/31 115 Jacksonville St Away L 68-88
2/2 328 Tennessee Tech Away W 67-63
2/7 294 E Illinois Home W 86-75
2/9 323 SIUE Home W 86-55
2/14 131 Austin Peay Away W 73-71
2/16 256 E Kentucky Away W 102-70
2/21 283 TN Martin Home W 85-75
2/23 312 SE Missouri St Home W 103-67
2/28 255 Morehead St Away W 71-52
3/2 131 Austin Peay Home W 94-83
3/8 115 Jacksonville St Neutal W 76-74
3/9 55 Belmont Neutal W 77-65