Murray State Racers Projections 2018


These are the latest projections for the Murray State Racers. All of these projections for Murray St are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 3/19/2018.

Murray St Record and Rankings

Record: 26-6
Projected Final Record: 26.0-6.0

OVC Conference Record: 18-2
Projected Final OVC Record: 18.0-2.0
Projected Final Rank in the OVC: 1

Murray St Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 63
RPI Rank: 47
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: 12 Seed

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-1 3-2 7-2 14-0
Win % by Tier 0.000 0.600 0.778 1.000

Our current projections give the Murray State Racers a 100.0% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 0.0% chance at an NIT bid and a 0.0% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Murray St’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #12 Seed 70.6%
NCAA #13 Seed 28.4%
NCAA #14 Seed 1.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 0.0%
NIT #2 Seed 0.0%
NIT #3 Seed 0.0%
NIT #4 Seed 0.0%
NIT #5 Seed 0.0%
NIT #6 Seed 0.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Murray State Racers. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Murray St Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/10 No Rank Brescia Home W 118-61
11/13 65 MTSU Home L 67-72
11/18 128 Wright St Away W 80-61
11/25 121 S Illinois Home W 81-73
11/28 No Rank Harris-Stowe Home W 85-56
12/2 337 Florida A&M Home W 80-59
12/9 119 Illinois St Away W 78-72
12/12 138 St Louis Away L 55-69
12/16 323 Marist Home W 100-63
12/19 14 Auburn Home L 77-81
12/22 325 Detroit Away W 81-72
12/28 254 E Illinois Home W 80-52
12/30 307 SIUE Home W 87-63
1/4 252 SE Missouri St Home W 89-73
1/6 304 TN Martin Home W 82-68
1/11 154 Jacksonville St Away L 71-76
1/13 197 Tennessee Tech Away W 71-45
1/18 88 Belmont Away L 72-79
1/20 202 Tennessee St Away W 76-57
1/25 290 Morehead St Home W 87-81
1/27 279 E Kentucky Home W 88-73
2/1 252 SE Missouri St Away W 87-75
2/3 304 TN Martin Away W 66-53
2/8 184 Austin Peay Home W 84-63
2/10 307 SIUE Away W 75-66
2/15 154 Jacksonville St Home W 68-60
2/17 197 Tennessee Tech Home W 75-65
2/22 254 E Illinois Away W 76-66
2/24 184 Austin Peay Away W 73-64
3/2 154 Jacksonville St Evansville, IN W 70-63
3/3 88 Belmont Evansville, IN W 68-51
3/16 13 West Virginia NCAA Tournament San Diego CA L 68-85