MVC Basketball Projections 2018-2019


These are the latest Missouri Valley Conference projections based on our NCAA College Basketball Ratings. These projections for the MVC are based on actual results of previous games and our predicted results for games upcoming in the future. The rank (or seed) for each team is only based upon their projected finish in the conference. Our latest update to these projections was done on 2/21/2019.

MVC Projected Standings

Rank Team All Games Conference Games
Actual Projected Actual Projected
Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses
1 Drake 21 7 22.9 8.1 10 5 11.9 6.1
2 Loyola-Chicago 17 11 18.8 12.2 10 5 11.8 6.2
3 Missouri St 15 13 16.6 14.4 9 6 10.6 7.4
4 Northern Iowa 13 15 14.5 16.5 8 7 9.5 8.5
5 S Illinois 14 14 15.8 15.2 7 8 8.8 9.2
6 Bradley 15 13 16.7 14.3 7 8 8.7 9.3
7 Valparaiso 14 14 15.4 15.6 7 8 8.4 9.6
8 Illinois St 14 14 15.3 15.7 7 8 8.3 9.7
9 Indiana St 14 13 15.1 14.9 6 9 7.1 10.9
10 Evansville 10 18 11 20 4 11 5 13

Projected MVC Tournament Bids

Our full list of NCAA Tournament and NIT Tournament projections can be found here. The below list contains our latest NCAA Tournament projections for teams within the Missouri Valley Conference. The “Bracket Rating” is based on a proprietary formula that projects a team’s bracket seeding by the NCAA Tournament committee.

Team Seed Bracket Rating
Loyola-Chicago 16 0.193

Projected MVC Regular Season Finish

Based on 100 simulations, this is the projected place where each team finishes in the Missouri Valley Conference standings.

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Top 8
Drake 44% 39% 14% 2% 100%
Loyola-Chicago 44% 35% 15% 5% 100%
Missouri St 11% 21% 41% 16% 100%
Northern Iowa 1% 5% 20% 39% 100%
S Illinois 0% 0% 5% 10% 94%
Bradley 0% 0% 1% 13% 95%
Valparaiso 0% 0% 3% 7% 93%
Illinois St 0% 0% 1% 8% 85%
Indiana St 0% 0% 0% 0% 32%
Evansville 0% 0% 0% 0% 1%

MVC Conference Tournament Predictions

Below are the odds to advance to each stage of the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament. The table below is based on 1,000 simulations. The Missouri Valley Conference Tournament has ten teams and is played on a neutral site.

Regular Season Champion: TBD
Tournament Site: Scottrade Center (St. Louis, MO)
First Round: March 7th, 2019
Quarterfinals: March 8th, 2019
Semifinals: March 9th, 2019
Finals: March 10th, 2019

Seed Team To Advance To
Qtrs Semis Finals To Win
1
Drake
100%
61.2%
36%
18.3%
2
Loyola-Chicago
100%
68.8%
44.2%
25.9%
3
Missouri St
100%
57%
27.5%
12.4%
4
Northern Iowa
96.8%
45.8%
19.1%
8.5%
5
S Illinois
91.4%
48.4%
23.4%
13.3%
6
Bradley
81.4%
35.5%
15.7%
6.8%
7
Valparaiso
71.3%
28.1%
11.7%
5.3%
8
Illinois St
69.7%
28.9%
10.9%
5%
9
Indiana St
49.7%
15.9%
7.4%
3%
10
Evansville
39.7%
10.4%
4.1%
1.5%

MVC Upcoming Conference Games with Projections

Every projection takes into account the ability of each team, home court advantage, and other factors that make for accurate predictions.

Date Away Team Away Prob to Win Home Team Home Prob to Win Game Projection
2/23 Evansville 23.3% Bradley 76.7% Bradley wins by 8
2/23 Indiana St 34.4% Missouri St 65.6% Missouri St wins by 5
2/23 Valparaiso 35.1% Northern Iowa 64.9% Northern Iowa wins by 5
2/24 Drake 56.9% Illinois St 43.1% Drake wins by 3
2/24 Loyola-Chicago 48.5% S Illinois 51.5% S Illinois wins by 1
2/27 Indiana St 20.3% Drake 79.7% Drake wins by 9
2/27 S Illinois 57.5% Evansville 42.5% S Illinois wins by 3
2/27 Missouri St 44.5% Illinois St 55.5% Illinois St wins by 2
2/27 Loyola-Chicago 54.8% Northern Iowa 45.2% Loyola-Chicago wins by 2
2/27 Valparaiso 34% Bradley 66% Bradley wins by 5
3/2 Bradley 25.7% Loyola-Chicago 74.3% Loyola-Chicago wins by 7
3/2 Drake 51.8% Missouri St 48.2% Drake wins by 1
3/2 Illinois St 30.9% S Illinois 69.1% S Illinois wins by 6
3/2 Northern Iowa 43.3% Indiana St 56.7% Indiana St wins by 3
3/2 Evansville 32.1% Valparaiso 68% Valparaiso wins by 6

Projections in Other Conferences

For other conferences, please see below.

AAC ACC America East Atlantic 10
Atlantic Sun Big 12 Big East Big Sky
Big South Big Ten Big West Colonial
Conference USA Horizon Ivy League MAAC
MAC MEAC MWC MVC
NEC OVC Pac-12 Patriot
Southern SEC Summit Southland
Southwestern Sun Belt WAC WCC