MVC Basketball Projections 2018-2019


These are the latest Missouri Valley Conference projections based on our NCAA College Basketball Ratings. These projections for the MVC are based on actual results of previous games and our predicted results for games upcoming in the future. The rank (or seed) for each team is only based upon their projected finish in the conference. Our latest update to these projections was done on 12/10/2018.

MVC Projected Standings

Rank Team All Games Conference Games
Actual Projected Actual Projected
Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses
1 S Illinois 7 3 20.5 10.5 0 0 12 6
2 Loyola-Chicago 5 5 18.9 12.1 0 0 11.5 6.5
3 Bradley 7 3 19.7 11.3 0 0 10.6 7.4
4 Drake 6 1 19.1 10.9 0 0 10 8
5 Indiana St 6 2 16.2 11.8 0 0 9.9 8.1
6 Evansville 5 4 14.8 16.2 0 0 8.1 9.9
7 Illinois St 6 5 14.8 16.2 0 0 7.9 10.1
8 Northern Iowa 4 5 12.9 18.1 0 0 7 11
9 Valparaiso 6 4 14 17 0 0 6.6 11.4
10 Missouri St 4 5 13.1 17.9 0 0 6.5 11.5

Projected MVC Tournament Bids

Our full list of NCAA Tournament and NIT Tournament projections can be found here. The below list contains our latest NCAA Tournament projections for teams within the Missouri Valley Conference. The “Bracket Rating” is based on a proprietary formula that projects a team’s bracket seeding by the NCAA Tournament committee.

Team Seed Bracket Rating
S Illinois 13 3.648

Projected MVC Regular Season Finish

Based on 100 simulations, this is the projected place where each team finishes in the Missouri Valley Conference standings.

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Top 8
S Illinois 35% 27% 14% 15% 99%
Loyola-Chicago 27% 23% 22% 12% 99%
Bradley 20% 16% 19% 12% 98%
Drake 10% 18% 13% 14% 95%
Indiana St 5% 8% 13% 20% 95%
Evansville 2% 2% 8% 6% 74%
Illinois St 1% 3% 6% 10% 76%
Northern Iowa 0% 0% 2% 4% 62%
Valparaiso 0% 1% 2% 4% 53%
Missouri St 0% 2% 1% 3% 49%

MVC Conference Tournament Predictions

Below are the odds to advance to each stage of the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament. The table below is based on 1,000 simulations. The Missouri Valley Conference Tournament has ten teams and is played on a neutral site.

Regular Season Champion: TBD
Tournament Site: Scottrade Center (St. Louis, MO)
First Round: March 7th, 2019
Quarterfinals: March 8th, 2019
Semifinals: March 9th, 2019
Finals: March 10th, 2019

Coming Soon!

MVC Upcoming Conference Games with Projections

Every projection takes into account the ability of each team, home court advantage, and other factors that make for accurate predictions.

Date Away Team Away Prob to Win Home Team Home Prob to Win Game Projection
1/2 Northern Iowa 18.4% Bradley 81.6% Bradley wins by 9
1/2 Drake 49.3% Evansville 50.7% Evansville wins by 1
1/2 Indiana St 28.2% Loyola-Chicago 71.8% Loyola-Chicago wins by 7
1/2 Missouri St 13.4% S Illinois 86.6% S Illinois wins by 12
1/2 Illinois St 47.8% Valparaiso 52.2% Valparaiso wins by 1
1/5 Bradley 43.3% Indiana St 56.7% Indiana St wins by 3
1/5 Loyola-Chicago 48.9% Drake 51.1% Drake wins by 1
1/5 Evansville 41.2% Illinois St 58.8% Illinois St wins by 3
1/5 S Illinois 62.8% Northern Iowa 37.2% S Illinois wins by 5
1/5 Valparaiso 40.9% Missouri St 59.2% Missouri St wins by 3
1/8 S Illinois 52.6% Drake 47.4% S Illinois wins by 1
1/8 Loyola-Chicago 57.1% Evansville 42.9% Loyola-Chicago wins by 3
1/8 Missouri St 19.1% Indiana St 80.9% Indiana St wins by 9
1/8 Bradley 59.2% Valparaiso 40.9% Bradley wins by 3
1/8 Northern Iowa 35.5% Illinois St 64.5% Illinois St wins by 5
1/12 Missouri St 17% Bradley 83% Bradley wins by 10
1/12 Indiana St 48.5% Evansville 51.5% Evansville wins by 1
1/12 Illinois St 18.4% Loyola-Chicago 81.6% Loyola-Chicago wins by 9

Projections in Other Conferences

For other conferences, please see below.

AAC ACC America East Atlantic 10
Atlantic Sun Big 12 Big East Big Sky
Big South Big Ten Big West Colonial
Conference USA Horizon Ivy League MAAC
MAC MEAC MWC MVC
NEC OVC Pac-12 Patriot
Southern SEC Summit Southland
Southwestern Sun Belt WAC WCC