MVC Basketball Projections 2018


These are the latest Missouri Valley Conference projections based on our NCAA College Basketball Ratings. These projections for the MVC are based on actual results of previous games and our predicted results for games upcoming in the future. The rank (or seed) for each team is only based upon their projected finish in the conference. Our latest update to these projections was done on 2/21/2018.

MVC Projected Conference Standings

Rank Team All Games Conference Games
Actual Projected Actual Projected
Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses
1 Loyola-Chicago 23 5 24.4 5.6 13 3 14.4 3.6
2 S Illinois 19 10 19.9 11.1 11 5 11.9 6.1
3 Drake 16 13 17 14 10 6 11 7
4 Illinois St 15 13 15.8 14.2 9 7 9.8 8.2
5 Bradley 18 11 18.9 12.1 8 8 8.9 9.1
6 Missouri St 17 12 18.2 12.8 7 9 8.2 9.8
7 Indiana St 11 17 12 18 6 10 7 11
8 Evansville 16 13 16.9 14.1 6 10 6.9 11.1
9 Northern Iowa 14 15 14.5 15.5 6 11 6.5 11.5
10 Valparaiso 14 16 14.4 16.6 5 12 5.4 12.6

Projected MVC Tournament Bids

Our full list of NCAA Tournament and NIT Tournament projections can be found here. The below list contains our latest NCAA Tournament projections for teams within the Missouri Valley Conference. The “Bracket Rating” is based on a proprietary formula that projects a team’s bracket seeding by the NCAA Tournament committee.

Team Seed Bracket Rating
Loyola-Chicago 12 4.217

MVC Conference Tournament Predictions

Below are the odds to advance to each stage of the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament. The table below is based on 1,000 simulations. Another caveat is that this simulation is based on the projected final seed of each MVC team. The Missouri Valley Conference Tournament has ten teams and is played on a neutral site.

Regular Season Champion: TBD
Tournament Site: Scottrade Center (St. Louis, MO)
First Round: March 1st, 2018
Quarterfinals: March 2nd, 2018
Semifinals: March 3rd, 2018
Finals: March 4th, 2018

Seed Team To Advance To
Qtrs Semis Finals To Win
1
Loyola-Chicago
100%
72.5%
53.8%
36.7%
2
S Illinois
100%
57.1%
29.9%
12.7%
3
Drake
100%
35.9%
15.9%
5.9%
4
Illinois St
100%
43%
13.3%
5.9%
5
Bradley
100%
57%
19.3%
8.9%
6
Missouri St
100%
64.1%
35.9%
16.8%
7
Indiana St
47.3%
19.9%
7.8%
2.6%
8
Evansville
48.4%
12.4%
5.6%
2.5%
9
Northern Iowa
51.6%
15.1%
8%
3.9%
10
Valparaiso
52.7%
23%
10.5%
4.1%

MVC Upcoming Conference Games with Projections

Every projection takes into account the ability of each team, home court advantage, and other factors that make for accurate predictions.

Date Away Team Away Prob to Win Home Team Home Prob to Win Game Projection
2/21 Evansville 39.5% Indiana St 60.5% Indiana St wins by 4
2/21 Drake 39.2% Illinois St 60.8% Illinois St wins by 4
2/21 Loyola-Chicago 57.8% S Illinois 42.2% Loyola-Chicago wins by 3
2/21 Bradley 30.9% Missouri St 69.1% Missouri St wins by 6
2/24 Indiana St 36.9% Bradley 63.1% Bradley wins by 5
2/24 Valparaiso 41.8% Drake 58.2% Drake wins by 3
2/24 S Illinois 47.1% Evansville 52.9% Evansville wins by 1
2/24 Illinois St 15% Loyola-Chicago 85% Loyola-Chicago wins by 11
2/24 Missouri St 47.8% Northern Iowa 52.2% Northern Iowa wins by 1

Projections in Other Conferences

For other conferences, please see below.

AAC ACC America East Atlantic 10
Atlantic Sun Big 12 Big East Big Sky
Big South Big Ten Big West Colonial
Conference USA Horizon Ivy League MAAC
MAC MEAC MWC MVC
NEC OVC Pac-12 Patriot
Southern SEC Summit Southland
Southwestern Sun Belt WAC WCC