MVC Basketball Projections 2018-2019


These are the latest Missouri Valley Conference projections based on our NCAA College Basketball Ratings. These projections for the MVC are based on actual results of previous games and our predicted results for games upcoming in the future. The rank (or seed) for each team is only based upon their projected finish in the conference. Our latest update to these projections was done on 3/17/2019.

MVC Projected Standings

Rank Team All Games Conference Games
Actual Projected Actual Projected
Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses
1 Loyola-Chicago 20 13 20 13 12 6 12 6
2 Drake 24 9 24 9 12 6 12 6
3 S Illinois 17 15 17 15 10 8 10 8
4 Missouri St 16 16 16 16 10 8 10 8
5 Bradley 20 14 20 14 9 9 9 9
6 Northern Iowa 16 18 16 18 9 9 9 9
7 Illinois St 17 16 17 16 9 9 9 9
8 Indiana St 15 16 15 16 7 11 7 11
9 Valparaiso 15 18 15 18 7 11 7 11
10 Evansville 11 21 11 21 5 13 5 13

Projected MVC Tournament Bids

Our full list of NCAA Tournament and NIT Tournament projections can be found here. The below list contains our latest NCAA Tournament projections for teams within the Missouri Valley Conference. The “Bracket Rating” is based on a proprietary formula that projects a team’s bracket seeding by the NCAA Tournament committee.

Team Seed Bracket Rating
Bradley 15 -0.372

Projected MVC Regular Season Finish

Based on 100 simulations, this is the projected place where each team finishes in the Missouri Valley Conference standings.

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Top 8
Loyola-Chicago 100% 0% 0% 0% 100%
Drake 0% 100% 0% 0% 100%
S Illinois 0% 0% 100% 0% 100%
Missouri St 0% 0% 0% 100% 100%
Bradley 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%
Northern Iowa 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%
Illinois St 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%
Indiana St 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%
Valparaiso 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Evansville 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

MVC Conference Tournament Predictions

Below are the odds to advance to each stage of the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament. The table below is based on 1,000 simulations. The Missouri Valley Conference Tournament has ten teams and is played on a neutral site.

Regular Season Champion: Loyola-Chicago
Tournament Site: Scottrade Center (St. Louis, MO)
First Round: March 7th, 2019
Quarterfinals: March 8th, 2019
Semifinals: March 9th, 2019
Finals: March 10th, 2019

Seed Team To Advance To
Qtrs Semis Finals To Win
1
Loyola-Chicago
100%
100%
0%
0%
2
Drake
100%
100%
0%
0%
3
S Illinois
100%
0%
0%
0%
4
Missouri St
100%
0%
0%
0%
5
Bradley
100%
100%
100%
100%
6
Northern Iowa
100%
100%
100%
0%
7
Illinois St
100%
0%
0%
0%
8
Indiana St
0%
0%
0%
0%
9
Valparaiso
100%
0%
0%
0%
10
Evansville
0%
0%
0%
0%

MVC Upcoming Conference Games with Projections

Every projection takes into account the ability of each team, home court advantage, and other factors that make for accurate predictions.

Date Away Team Away Prob to Win Home Team Home Prob to Win Game Projection

Projections in Other Conferences

For other conferences, please see below.

AAC ACC America East Atlantic 10
Atlantic Sun Big 12 Big East Big Sky
Big South Big Ten Big West Colonial
Conference USA Horizon Ivy League MAAC
MAC MEAC MWC MVC
NEC OVC Pac-12 Patriot
Southern SEC Summit Southland
Southwestern Sun Belt WAC WCC