NC State Wolfpack Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the NC State Wolfpack. All of these projections for NC State are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 1/20/2019.

NC State Record and Rankings

Record: 15-3
Projected Final Record: 21.7-9.3

ACC Conference Record: 3-2
Projected Final ACC Record: 9.7-8.3
Projected Final Rank in the ACC: 8

NC State Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 33
RPI Rank: 112
NET Rank: 31
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: 10 Seed

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 1-2 1-0 4-1 9-0
Win % by Tier 0.333 1.000 0.800 1.000

Our current projections give the NC State Wolfpack a 55.4% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 26.8% chance at an NIT bid and a 17.8% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account NC State’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 1.2%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.8%
NCAA #3 Seed 1.2%
NCAA #4 Seed 1.4%
NCAA #5 Seed 3.6%
NCAA #6 Seed 2.6%
NCAA #7 Seed 5.4%
NCAA #8 Seed 5.2%
NCAA #9 Seed 11.6%
NCAA #10 Seed 11.6%
NCAA #11 Seed 9.8%
NCAA #12 Seed 1.0%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 9.8%
NIT #2 Seed 5.6%
NIT #3 Seed 4.6%
NIT #4 Seed 4.0%
NIT #5 Seed 1.8%
NIT #6 Seed 1.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the NC State Wolfpack. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

NC State Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 324 Mt St Mary’s Home W 105-55
11/10 351 MD E Shore Home W 95-49
11/13 353 UNC Asheville Home W 100-49
11/17 326 Maine Home W 82-63
11/20 314 St Peter’s Home W 85-57
11/24 194 Mercer Home W 78-74
11/27 26 Wisconsin Away L 75-79
12/1 106 Vanderbilt Neutal W 80-65
12/5 281 W Carolina Home W 100-67
12/15 83 Penn St Neutal W 89-78
12/19 20 Auburn Home W 78-71
12/22 330 SC Upstate Home W 98-71
12/28 278 Loyola MD Home W 97-64
1/3 97 Miami FL Away W 87-82
1/8 10 North Carolina Home L 82-90
1/12 65 Pittsburgh Home W 86-80
1/15 164 Wake Forest Away L 67-71
1/19 82 Notre Dame Away W 77-73
1/24 21 Louisville Away 26.7%
1/26 44 Clemson Home 71.8%
1/29 1 Virginia Home 23.3%
2/2 11 Virginia Tech Home 44.5%
2/5 10 North Carolina Away 16.7%
2/9 65 Pittsburgh Away 56.3%
2/13 41 Syracuse Home 66.8%
2/16 3 Duke Away 8.2%
2/20 123 Boston College Home 88.3%
2/24 164 Wake Forest Home 92.6%
3/2 27 Florida St Away 30.9%
3/6 89 Georgia Tech Home 85%
3/9 123 Boston College Away 61.8%