NC State Wolfpack Projections 2018


These are the latest projections for the NC State Wolfpack. All of these projections for NC State are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 11/12/2018.

NC State Record and Rankings

Record: 2-0
Projected Final Record: 20.5-10.5

ACC Conference Record: 0-0
Projected Final ACC Record: 9.8-8.2
Projected Final Rank in the ACC: 5

NC State Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 25
RPI Rank: 142
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: 8 Seed

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-0 1-0 0-0 1-0
Win % by Tier 0.000 1.000 0.000 1.000

Our current projections give the NC State Wolfpack a 84.8% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 9.0% chance at an NIT bid and a 6.2% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account NC State’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 1.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 1.6%
NCAA #3 Seed 2.6%
NCAA #4 Seed 2.6%
NCAA #5 Seed 4.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 6.4%
NCAA #7 Seed 12.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 12.2%
NCAA #9 Seed 17.2%
NCAA #10 Seed 17.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 7.8%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 6.4%
NIT #2 Seed 1.6%
NIT #3 Seed 0.0%
NIT #4 Seed 0.4%
NIT #5 Seed 0.2%
NIT #6 Seed 0.2%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.2%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the NC State Wolfpack. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

NC State Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 279 Mt St Mary’s Home W 105-55
11/10 346 MD E Shore Home W 95-49
11/13 163 UNC Asheville Home 93%
11/17 332 Maine Home 98.9%
11/20 212 St Peter’s Home 94.4%
11/24 130 Mercer Home 91.1%
11/27 39 Wisconsin Away 40.2%
12/1 30 Vanderbilt Neutral 49.3%
12/5 276 W Carolina Home 98.6%
12/15 17 Penn St Neutral 45.2%
12/19 19 Auburn Home 57.3%
12/22 338 SC Upstate Home 99%
12/28 293 Loyola MD Home 98.6%
1/3 23 Miami FL Away 37.9%
1/8 5 North Carolina Home 41.5%
1/12 177 Pittsburgh Home 93.4%
1/15 103 Wake Forest Away 61.1%
1/19 41 Notre Dame Away 44.9%
1/24 38 Louisville Away 44.5%
1/26 21 Clemson Home 62.1%
1/29 4 Virginia Home 40.5%
2/2 22 Virginia Tech Home 59.8%
2/5 5 North Carolina Away 15%
2/9 177 Pittsburgh Away 80.2%
2/13 26 Syracuse Home 62.8%
2/16 1 Duke Away 7.4%
2/20 69 Boston College Home 81.8%
2/24 103 Wake Forest Home 86.8%
3/2 10 Florida St Away 20.3%
3/6 96 Georgia Tech Home 86.4%
3/9 69 Boston College Away 55.5%