NC State Wolfpack Projections 2018


These are the latest projections for the NC State Wolfpack. All of these projections for NC State are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 2/21/2018.

NC State Record and Rankings

Record: 19-9
Projected Final Record: 20.6-10.4

ACC Conference Record: 9-6
Projected Final ACC Record: 10.6-7.4
Projected Final Rank in the ACC: 5

NC State Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 44
RPI Rank: 55
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: 8 Seed

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 5-6 2-2 4-1 8-0
Win % by Tier 0.455 0.500 0.800 1.000

Our current projections give the NC State Wolfpack a 73.2% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 25.0% chance at an NIT bid and a 1.8% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account NC State’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #5 Seed 2.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 8.4%
NCAA #7 Seed 8.4%
NCAA #8 Seed 17.6%
NCAA #9 Seed 14.8%
NCAA #10 Seed 14.2%
NCAA #11 Seed 7.2%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 7.0%
NIT #2 Seed 8.2%
NIT #3 Seed 6.0%
NIT #4 Seed 2.2%
NIT #5 Seed 1.6%
NIT #6 Seed 0.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the NC State Wolfpack. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

NC State Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/10 313 VMI Home W 102-67
11/12 265 Charleston So Home W 78-56
11/14 343 Bryant Home W 95-72
11/16 317 Presbyterian Home W 86-68
11/22 18 Arizona Nassau, Bahamas W 90-84
11/23 144 Northern Iowa Nassau, Bahamas L 60-64
11/24 15 Tennessee Nassau, Bahamas L 58-67
11/29 46 Penn St Home W 85-78
12/2 338 S Carolina St Home W 103-71
12/9 270 Missouri KC Home W 88-69
12/16 92 UNC Greensboro Home L 76-81
12/19 241 Robert Morris Home W 81-69
12/22 308 Jacksonville Home W 116-64
12/30 12 Clemson Away L 62-78
1/3 54 Notre Dame Away L 58-88
1/6 6 Duke Home W 96-85
1/11 12 Clemson Home W 78-77
1/14 1 Virginia Away L 51-68
1/18 106 Wake Forest Home W 72-63
1/21 45 Miami FL Home L 81-86
1/24 209 Pittsburgh Away W 72-68
1/27 10 North Carolina Away W 95-91
2/3 54 Notre Dame Home W 76-58
2/7 32 Virginia Tech Away L 75-85
2/10 10 North Carolina Home L 89-96
2/14 49 Syracuse Away W 74-70
2/17 106 Wake Forest Away W 90-84
2/20 82 Boston College Home W 82-66
2/25 31 Florida St Home 51.8%
3/1 122 Georgia Tech Away 56.7%
3/3 41 Louisville Home 56.1%