NEC Basketball Projections 2018-2019


These are the latest Northeast Conference projections based on our NCAA College Basketball Ratings. These projections for the NEC are based on actual results of previous games and our predicted results for games upcoming in the future. The rank (or seed) for each team is only based upon their projected finish in the conference. Our latest update to these projections was done on 2/21/2019.

NEC Projected Standings

Rank Team All Games Conference Games
Actual Projected Actual Projected
Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses
1 St Francis PA 14 11 16.2 12.8 10 4 12.2 5.8
2 St Francis NY 16 11 18.5 12.5 8 6 10.5 7.5
3 F Dickinson 13 13 15.4 14.6 8 6 10.4 7.6
4 Wagner 13 12 15.1 13.9 8 6 10.1 7.9
5 Sacred Heart 12 15 14 17 8 6 10 8
6 Robert Morris 13 14 14.9 16.1 8 6 9.9 8.1
7 LIU Brooklyn 12 14 14.1 15.9 6 8 8.1 9.9
8 Central Conn 11 16 13.2 17.8 5 9 7.2 10.8
9 Bryant 8 17 9.5 19.5 5 9 6.5 11.5
10 Mt St Mary’s 7 20 8.1 22.9 4 10 5.1 12.9

Projected NEC Tournament Bids

Our full list of NCAA Tournament and NIT Tournament projections can be found here. The below list contains our latest NCAA Tournament projections for teams within the Northeast Conference. The “Bracket Rating” is based on a proprietary formula that projects a team’s bracket seeding by the NCAA Tournament committee.

Team Seed Bracket Rating
St Francis PA 16 -3.902

Projected NEC Regular Season Finish

Based on 100 simulations, this is the projected place where each team finishes in the Northeast Conference standings.

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Top 8
St Francis PA 77% 12% 5% 6% 100%
St Francis NY 11% 26% 31% 13% 100%
F Dickinson 3% 24% 17% 21% 100%
Wagner 3% 9% 16% 21% 100%
Sacred Heart 4% 15% 15% 26% 100%
Robert Morris 2% 13% 16% 12% 100%
LIU Brooklyn 0% 1% 0% 0% 91%
Central Conn 0% 0% 0% 1% 72%
Bryant 0% 0% 0% 0% 32%
Mt St Mary’s 0% 0% 0% 0% 5%

NEC Conference Tournament Predictions

Below are the odds to advance to each stage of the Northeast Conference Tournament. The table below is based on 1,000 simulations. The Northeast Conference Basketball Tournament uses a standard eight team bracket that are played at the sites of the higher seeded team.

Regular Season Champion: TBD
Tournament Site: Campus Sites
Quarterfinals: March 6th, 2019
Semifinals: March 9th, 2019
Finals: March 12th, 2019

Seed Team To Advance To
Semis Finals To Win
1
St Francis PA
72.4%
47.1%
32.2%
2
St Francis NY
67.3%
38.3%
22.5%
3
F Dickinson
58.6%
28.7%
14.7%
4
Wagner
47.5%
21.7%
8.4%
5
Sacred Heart
58.1%
30.3%
13.3%
6
Robert Morris
41.6%
17%
5.4%
7
LIU Brooklyn
18.9%
7.2%
1.7%
8
Central Conn
12.1%
4.4%
1.2%

NEC Upcoming Conference Games with Projections

Every projection takes into account the ability of each team, home court advantage, and other factors that make for accurate predictions.

Date Away Team Away Prob to Win Home Team Home Prob to Win Game Projection
2/21 Wagner 55.5% Bryant 44.5% Wagner wins by 2
2/21 Mt St Mary’s 20.8% Central Conn 79.2% Central Conn wins by 8
2/21 LIU Brooklyn 39.2% Robert Morris 60.8% Robert Morris wins by 4
2/21 St Francis NY 39.2% St Francis PA 60.8% St Francis PA wins by 4
2/21 Sacred Heart 37.2% F Dickinson 62.8% F Dickinson wins by 5
2/23 Mt St Mary’s 36.2% Bryant 63.8% Bryant wins by 5
2/23 Wagner 34.4% F Dickinson 65.6% F Dickinson wins by 5
2/23 St Francis NY 46.7% Robert Morris 53.3% Robert Morris wins by 1
2/23 Sacred Heart 45.2% Central Conn 54.8% Central Conn wins by 2
2/23 LIU Brooklyn 29.7% St Francis PA 70.3% St Francis PA wins by 7
2/28 Bryant 17.4% St Francis NY 82.6% St Francis NY wins by 10
2/28 Central Conn 37.9% LIU Brooklyn 62.1% LIU Brooklyn wins by 4
2/28 F Dickinson 60.1% Mt St Mary’s 39.9% F Dickinson wins by 4
2/28 St Francis PA 44.5% Wagner 55.5% Wagner wins by 2
2/28 Robert Morris 36.2% Sacred Heart 63.8% Sacred Heart wins by 5
3/2 Bryant 23.3% LIU Brooklyn 76.7% LIU Brooklyn wins by 8
3/2 F Dickinson 48.5% Central Conn 51.5% Central Conn wins by 1
3/2 Mt St Mary’s 15.8% St Francis NY 84.2% St Francis NY wins by 11

Projections in Other Conferences

For other conferences, please see below.

AAC ACC America East Atlantic 10
Atlantic Sun Big 12 Big East Big Sky
Big South Big Ten Big West Colonial
Conference USA Horizon Ivy League MAAC
MAC MEAC MWC MVC
NEC OVC Pac-12 Patriot
Southern SEC Summit Southland
Southwestern Sun Belt WAC WCC