NEC Basketball Projections 2018-2019


These are the latest Northeast Conference projections based on our NCAA College Basketball Ratings. These projections for the NEC are based on actual results of previous games and our predicted results for games upcoming in the future. The rank (or seed) for each team is only based upon their projected finish in the conference. Our latest update to these projections was done on 12/17/2018.

NEC Projected Standings

Rank Team All Games Conference Games
Actual Projected Actual Projected
Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses
1 Central Conn 4 6 17.5 12.5 0 0 12.6 5.4
2 St Francis NY 7 4 19.1 11.9 0 0 11.2 6.8
3 St Francis PA 3 6 16.2 13.8 0 0 11.1 6.9
4 LIU Brooklyn 5 5 17 13 0 0 10.8 7.2
5 Wagner 3 5 14.2 13.8 0 0 10.5 7.5
6 Sacred Heart 4 6 13.9 17.1 0 0 9.4 8.6
7 F Dickinson 4 5 13.7 16.3 0 0 8.8 9.2
8 Robert Morris 4 7 11.8 19.2 0 0 6.9 11.1
9 Mt St Mary’s 1 9 6.1 24.9 0 0 4.3 13.7
10 Bryant 2 7 6.5 22.5 0 0 4.3 13.7

Projected NEC Tournament Bids

Our full list of NCAA Tournament and NIT Tournament projections can be found here. The below list contains our latest NCAA Tournament projections for teams within the Northeast Conference. The “Bracket Rating” is based on a proprietary formula that projects a team’s bracket seeding by the NCAA Tournament committee.

Team Seed Bracket Rating
St Francis NY 16 -1.885

Projected NEC Regular Season Finish

Based on 100 simulations, this is the projected place where each team finishes in the Northeast Conference standings.

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Top 8
Central Conn 34% 27% 19% 6% 100%
St Francis NY 18% 19% 16% 20% 100%
St Francis PA 18% 23% 17% 18% 99%
LIU Brooklyn 12% 7% 15% 17% 99%
Wagner 12% 10% 16% 19% 98%
Sacred Heart 4% 8% 8% 8% 98%
F Dickinson 2% 5% 7% 11% 93%
Robert Morris 0% 1% 2% 1% 79%
Mt St Mary’s 0% 0% 0% 0% 13%
Bryant 0% 0% 0% 0% 21%

NEC Conference Tournament Predictions

Below are the odds to advance to each stage of the Northeast Conference Tournament. The table below is based on 1,000 simulations. The Northeast Conference Basketball Tournament uses a standard eight team bracket that are played at the sites of the higher seeded team.

Regular Season Champion: TBD
Tournament Site: Campus Sites
Quarterfinals: March 6th, 2019
Semifinals: March 9th, 2019
Finals: March 12th, 2019

Coming Soon!

NEC Upcoming Conference Games with Projections

Every projection takes into account the ability of each team, home court advantage, and other factors that make for accurate predictions.

Date Away Team Away Prob to Win Home Team Home Prob to Win Game Projection
1/3 St Francis NY 78.2% Bryant 21.8% St Francis NY wins by 8
1/3 Wagner 24.7% Central Conn 75.3% Central Conn wins by 8
1/3 F Dickinson 52.9% Robert Morris 47.1% F Dickinson wins by 1
1/3 Mt St Mary’s 7.8% St Francis PA 92.2% St Francis PA wins by 15
1/3 LIU Brooklyn 47.1% Sacred Heart 52.9% Sacred Heart wins by 1
1/5 LIU Brooklyn 74.8% Bryant 25.2% LIU Brooklyn wins by 8
1/5 F Dickinson 23.8% St Francis PA 76.2% St Francis PA wins by 8
1/5 St Francis NY 42.7% Wagner 57.3% Wagner wins by 3
1/5 Central Conn 57.1% Sacred Heart 42.9% Central Conn wins by 3
1/5 Mt St Mary’s 18.4% Robert Morris 81.6% Robert Morris wins by 9
1/10 Bryant 39.9% Mt St Mary’s 60.1% Mt St Mary’s wins by 4
1/10 Central Conn 59.5% F Dickinson 40.5% Central Conn wins by 4
1/10 Robert Morris 16.5% LIU Brooklyn 83.5% LIU Brooklyn wins by 10
1/10 St Francis PA 39.2% St Francis NY 60.8% St Francis NY wins by 4
1/10 Sacred Heart 32.8% Wagner 67.2% Wagner wins by 6
1/12 Central Conn 81.8% Mt St Mary’s 18.2% Central Conn wins by 10
1/12 F Dickinson 28.6% Wagner 71.4% Wagner wins by 7
1/12 Robert Morris 15.5% St Francis NY 84.5% St Francis NY wins by 11

Projections in Other Conferences

For other conferences, please see below.

AAC ACC America East Atlantic 10
Atlantic Sun Big 12 Big East Big Sky
Big South Big Ten Big West Colonial
Conference USA Horizon Ivy League MAAC
MAC MEAC MWC MVC
NEC OVC Pac-12 Patriot
Southern SEC Summit Southland
Southwestern Sun Belt WAC WCC