NEC Basketball Projections 2018


These are the latest Northeast Conference projections based on our NCAA College Basketball Ratings. These projections for the NEC are based on actual results of previous games and our predicted results for games upcoming in the future. The rank (or seed) for each team is only based upon their projected finish in the conference. Our latest update to these projections was done on 2/19/2018.

NEC Projected Conference Standings

Rank Team All Games Conference Games
Actual Projected Actual Projected
Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses
1 Wagner 20 7 21.2 7.8 13 3 14.2 3.8
2 St Francis PA 16 11 17.3 11.7 10 6 11.3 6.7
3 Mt St Mary’s 16 13 17 14 10 6 11 7
4 St Francis NY 13 15 13.8 16.2 10 6 10.8 7.2
5 Robert Morris 15 14 15.7 15.3 9 7 9.7 8.3
6 Long Island 13 16 14.3 16.7 8 8 9.3 8.7
7 F Dickinson 11 16 12.3 16.7 8 8 9.3 8.7
8 Central Conn 13 16 13.9 17.1 6 10 6.9 11.1
9 Sacred Heart 9 20 9.9 21.1 4 12 4.9 13.1
10 Bryant 3 26 3.5 27.5 2 14 2.5 15.5

Projected NEC Tournament Bids

Our full list of NCAA Tournament and NIT Tournament projections can be found here. The below list contains our latest NCAA Tournament projections for teams within the Northeast Conference. The “Bracket Rating” is based on a proprietary formula that projects a team’s bracket seeding by the NCAA Tournament committee.

Team Seed Bracket Rating
Wagner 16 0.225

NEC Conference Tournament Predictions

Below are the odds to advance to each stage of the Northeast Conference Tournament. The table below is based on 1,000 simulations. Another caveat is that this simulation is based on the projected final seed of each NEC team. The Northeast Conference Basketball Tournament uses a standard eight team bracket that are played at the sites of the higher seeded team.

Regular Season Champion: TBD
Tournament Site: Campus Sites
Quarterfinals: February 28th, 2018
Semifinals: March 3rd, 2018
Finals: March 6th, 2018

Seed Team To Advance To
Semis Finals To Win
1
Wagner
82.5%
64.6%
47.1%
2
St Francis PA
73.4%
43.8%
20.1%
3
Mt St Mary’s
61.2%
31.6%
11%
4
St Francis NY
52.3%
14.2%
6.2%
5
Robert Morris
47.7%
15.4%
6.9%
6
Long Island
38.8%
12.6%
3.6%
7
F Dickinson
26.6%
12%
3%
8
Central Conn
17.5%
5.8%
2.1%

NEC Upcoming Conference Games with Projections

Every projection takes into account the ability of each team, home court advantage, and other factors that make for accurate predictions.

Date Away Team Away Prob to Win Home Team Home Prob to Win Game Projection
2/22 Wagner 64.5% Central Conn 35.5% Wagner wins by 5
2/22 St Francis PA 56.1% F Dickinson 43.9% St Francis PA wins by 2
2/22 St Francis NY 39.2% Long Island 60.8% Long Island wins by 4
2/22 Robert Morris 41.8% Mt St Mary’s 58.2% Mt St Mary’s wins by 3
2/22 Sacred Heart 59.2% Bryant 40.9% Sacred Heart wins by 3
2/24 St Francis NY 44.5% Central Conn 55.5% Central Conn wins by 2
2/24 Bryant 14.1% F Dickinson 85.9% F Dickinson wins by 11
2/24 Sacred Heart 27.7% Long Island 72.3% Long Island wins by 7
2/24 Wagner 58.8% Mt St Mary’s 41.2% Wagner wins by 3
2/24 Robert Morris 30.9% St Francis PA 69.1% St Francis PA wins by 6

Projections in Other Conferences

For other conferences, please see below.

AAC ACC America East Atlantic 10
Atlantic Sun Big 12 Big East Big Sky
Big South Big Ten Big West Colonial
Conference USA Horizon Ivy League MAAC
MAC MEAC MWC MVC
NEC OVC Pac-12 Patriot
Southern SEC Summit Southland
Southwestern Sun Belt WAC WCC