Nevada Wolf Pack Projections 2018


These are the latest projections for the Nevada Wolf Pack. All of these projections for Nevada are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 11/12/2018.

Nevada Record and Rankings

Record: 2-0
Projected Final Record: 26.5-3.5

Mountain West Conference Record: 0-0
Projected Final Mountain West Record: 16.4-1.6
Projected Final Rank in the Mountain West: 1

Nevada Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 16
RPI Rank: 5
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: 2 Seed

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-0 2-0 0-0 0-0
Win % by Tier 0.000 1.000 0.000 0.000

Our current projections give the Nevada Wolf Pack a 89.4% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 10.6% chance at an NIT bid and a 0.0% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Nevada’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 8.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 56.6%
NCAA #3 Seed 14.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 1.2%
NCAA #5 Seed 1.6%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #7 Seed 1.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 1.4%
NCAA #9 Seed 2.2%
NCAA #10 Seed 1.8%
NCAA #11 Seed 1.2%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 1.8%
NIT #2 Seed 1.4%
NIT #3 Seed 1.2%
NIT #4 Seed 1.0%
NIT #5 Seed 3.2%
NIT #6 Seed 1.8%
NIT #7 Seed 0.2%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Nevada Wolf Pack. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Nevada Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 93 BYU Home W 86-70
11/9 188 Pacific Home W 83-61
11/16 291 Ark Little Rock Home 98.8%
11/19 No Rank Cal Baptist Home 100%
11/22 107 Tulsa Neutal 86.6%
11/27 61 Loyola-Chicago Away 62.8%
12/1 63 USC Away 60.8%
12/7 56 Arizona St Neutal 71.3%
12/9 143 Grand Canyon Away 81.4%
12/15 80 S Dakota St Home 90.6%
12/22 190 Akron Home 98.4%
12/29 43 Utah Away 59.5%
1/2 165 Utah St Home 98.4%
1/5 134 New Mexico Away 82.1%
1/9 341 San Jose St Home 99.7%
1/12 136 Fresno St Away 81.6%
1/15 164 Boise St Away 85.2%
1/19 295 Air Force Home 98.9%
1/23 263 Colorado St Home 98.9%
1/29 208 UNLV Away 91.8%
2/2 164 Boise St Home 96.4%
2/6 263 Colorado St Away 93%
2/9 134 New Mexico Home 93.8%
2/16 244 Wyoming Away 92.2%
2/20 79 San Diego St Away 64.5%
2/23 136 Fresno St Home 93.8%
2/27 208 UNLV Home 98.6%
3/2 165 Utah St Away 89.2%
3/5 295 Air Force Away 93.4%
3/9 79 San Diego St Home 88.6%