Nevada Wolf Pack Projections 2018


These are the latest projections for the Nevada Wolf Pack. All of these projections for Nevada are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 3/19/2018.

Nevada Record and Rankings

Record: 29-7
Projected Final Record: 29.6-7.4

Mountain West Conference Record: 16-4
Projected Final Mountain West Record: 16.0-4.0
Projected Final Rank in the Mountain West: 1

Nevada Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 34
RPI Rank: 18
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: 7 Seed

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 2-3 8-2 12-2 5-0
Win % by Tier 0.400 0.800 0.857 1.000

Our current projections give the Nevada Wolf Pack a 80.8% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 19.2% chance at an NIT bid and a 0.0% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Nevada’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #6 Seed 12.8%
NCAA #7 Seed 27.6%
NCAA #8 Seed 25.4%
NCAA #9 Seed 4.8%
NCAA #10 Seed 3.6%
NCAA #11 Seed 6.4%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 5.8%
NIT #2 Seed 1.2%
NIT #3 Seed 4.2%
NIT #4 Seed 4.6%
NIT #5 Seed 3.4%
NIT #6 Seed 0.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Nevada Wolf Pack. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Nevada Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/10 129 Idaho Home W 88-64
11/13 44 Rhode Island Home W 88-81
11/15 248 Santa Clara Away W 93-63
11/18 186 Pacific Away W 89-74
11/21 67 Davidson Home W 81-68
11/24 198 Hawaii Away W 67-54
11/29 119 Illinois St Home W 98-68
12/2 148 UC Irvine Away W 76-65
12/5 15 Texas Tech Away L 76-82
12/8 22 TCU Los Angeles, CA L 80-84
12/17 173 Radford Home W 77-62
12/19 126 UC Davis Home W 88-73
12/22 121 S Illinois Las Vegas, NV W 86-64
12/23 147 San Francisco Las Vegas, NV L 64-66
12/27 89 Fresno St Away W 80-65
12/30 99 New Mexico Home W 77-74
1/3 109 Wyoming Home W 92-83
1/6 218 Air Force Away W 86-75
1/13 141 Utah St Home W 83-57
1/17 313 San Jose St Away W 71-54
1/20 66 Boise St Home W 74-68
1/24 109 Wyoming Away L 103-104
1/31 89 Fresno St Home W 102-92
2/3 215 Colorado St Away W 76-67
2/7 102 UNLV Home L 78-86
2/10 64 San Diego St Home W 83-58
2/14 66 Boise St Away W 77-72
2/17 141 Utah St Away W 93-87
2/21 313 San Jose St Home W 80-67
2/25 215 Colorado St Home W 92-83
2/28 102 UNLV Away W 101-75
3/3 64 San Diego St Away L 74-79
3/8 102 UNLV Away W 79-74
3/9 64 San Diego St Las Vegas, NV L 73-90
3/16 32 Texas NCAA Tournament Nashville TN W 87-83
3/18 5 Cincinnati NCAA Tournament W 75-73
3/22 46 Loyola-Chicago NCAA Tournament Atlanta, GA 58.1%