Nevada Wolf Pack Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the Nevada Wolf Pack. All of these projections for Nevada are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 1/20/2019.

Nevada Record and Rankings

Record: 18-1
Projected Final Record: 28.5-2.5

Mountain West Conference Record: 5-1
Projected Final Mountain West Record: 15.5-2.5
Projected Final Rank in the Mountain West: 1

Nevada Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 22
RPI Rank: 11
NET Rank: 23
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: 8 Seed

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 1-0 4-0 6-1 7-0
Win % by Tier 1.000 1.000 0.857 1.000

Our current projections give the Nevada Wolf Pack a 93.6% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 6.4% chance at an NIT bid and a 0.0% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Nevada’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #3 Seed 1.8%
NCAA #4 Seed 3.8%
NCAA #5 Seed 8.8%
NCAA #6 Seed 15.4%
NCAA #7 Seed 25.6%
NCAA #8 Seed 16.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 7.2%
NCAA #10 Seed 3.4%
NCAA #11 Seed 5.6%
NCAA #12 Seed 3.4%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.8%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 1.2%
NIT #2 Seed 2.2%
NIT #3 Seed 1.6%
NIT #4 Seed 0.4%
NIT #5 Seed 0.0%
NIT #6 Seed 0.6%
NIT #7 Seed 0.2%
NIT #8 Seed 0.2%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Nevada Wolf Pack. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Nevada Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 112 BYU Home W 86-70
11/9 179 Pacific Home W 83-61
11/16 266 Ark Little Rock Home W 87-59
11/19 239 Cal Baptist Home W 90-55
11/22 104 Tulsa Neutal W 96-86
11/23 197 Massachusetts Neutal W 110-87
11/27 100 Loyola-Chicago Away W 79-65
12/1 109 USC Away W 73-61
12/7 59 Arizona St Neutal W 72-66
12/9 101 Grand Canyon Neutal W 74-66
12/15 141 S Dakota St Home W 72-68
12/22 158 Akron Home W 68-62
12/29 119 Utah Away W 86-71
1/2 57 Utah St Home W 72-49
1/5 176 New Mexico Away L 58-85
1/9 331 San Jose St Home W 92-53
1/12 63 Fresno St Away W 74-64
1/15 160 Boise St Away W 72-71
1/19 231 Air Force Home W 67-52
1/23 215 Colorado St Home 98.7%
1/29 156 UNLV Away 81.6%
2/2 160 Boise St Home 93.4%
2/6 215 Colorado St Away 91.8%
2/9 176 New Mexico Home 95.1%
2/16 318 Wyoming Away 93%
2/20 151 San Diego St Away 79.7%
2/23 63 Fresno St Home 85%
2/27 156 UNLV Home 93.4%
3/2 57 Utah St Away 57.1%
3/5 231 Air Force Away 91.7%
3/9 151 San Diego St Home 92.6%