Nevada Wolf Pack Projections 2018


These are the latest projections for the Nevada Wolf Pack. All of these projections for Nevada are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 2/21/2018.

Nevada Record and Rankings

Record: 23-5
Projected Final Record: 26.1-5.9

Mountain West Conference Record: 12-2
Projected Final Mountain West Record: 15.1-2.9
Projected Final Rank in the Mountain West: 1

Nevada Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 23
RPI Rank: 9
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: 8 Seed

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 2-2 3-1 15-2 3-0
Win % by Tier 0.500 0.750 0.882 1.000

Our current projections give the Nevada Wolf Pack a 89.8% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 10.2% chance at an NIT bid and a 0.0% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Nevada’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 1.4%
NCAA #4 Seed 12.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 10.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 10.8%
NCAA #7 Seed 13.2%
NCAA #8 Seed 16.2%
NCAA #9 Seed 11.4%
NCAA #10 Seed 5.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 8.0%
NCAA #12 Seed 1.8%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 2.2%
NIT #2 Seed 3.6%
NIT #3 Seed 3.0%
NIT #4 Seed 1.4%
NIT #5 Seed 0.0%
NIT #6 Seed 0.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Nevada Wolf Pack. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Nevada Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/10 114 Idaho Home W 88-64
11/13 19 Rhode Island Home W 88-81
11/15 221 Santa Clara Away W 93-63
11/18 168 Pacific Away W 89-74
11/21 94 Davidson Home W 81-68
11/24 206 Hawaii Away W 67-54
11/29 131 Illinois St Home W 98-68
12/2 156 UC Irvine Away W 76-65
12/5 9 Texas Tech Away L 76-82
12/8 21 TCU Los Angeles, CA L 80-84
12/17 185 Radford Home W 77-62
12/19 126 UC Davis Home W 88-73
12/22 105 S Illinois Las Vegas, NV W 86-64
12/23 140 San Francisco Las Vegas, NV L 64-66
12/27 80 Fresno St Away W 80-65
12/30 136 New Mexico Home W 77-74
1/3 103 Wyoming Home W 92-83
1/6 226 Air Force Away W 86-75
1/13 132 Utah St Home W 83-57
1/17 321 San Jose St Away W 71-54
1/20 59 Boise St Home W 74-68
1/24 103 Wyoming Away L 103-104
1/31 80 Fresno St Home W 102-92
2/3 204 Colorado St Away W 76-67
2/7 86 UNLV Home L 78-86
2/10 89 San Diego St Home W 83-58
2/14 59 Boise St Away W 77-72
2/17 132 Utah St Away W 93-87
2/21 321 San Jose St Home 98.7%
2/25 204 Colorado St Home 93.8%
2/28 86 UNLV Away 58.2%
3/3 89 San Diego St Away 55.9%