Nevada Wolf Pack Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the Nevada Wolf Pack. All of these projections for Nevada are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 3/17/2019.

Nevada Record and Rankings

Record: 29-4
Projected Final Record: 29.0-4.0

Mountain West Conference Record: 15-3
Projected Final Mountain West Record: 15.0-3.0
Projected Final Rank in the Mountain West: 1

Nevada Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 28
RPI Rank: 19
NET Rank: 23
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: 7 Seed

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 2-1 4-2 11-1 12-0
Win % by Tier 0.667 0.667 0.917 1.000

Our current projections give the Nevada Wolf Pack a 83.4% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 16.6% chance at an NIT bid and a 0.0% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Nevada’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 1.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 1.8%
NCAA #6 Seed 2.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 58.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 7.6%
NCAA #9 Seed 3.4%
NCAA #10 Seed 4.2%
NCAA #11 Seed 4.4%
NCAA #12 Seed 1.0%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 3.6%
NIT #2 Seed 0.6%
NIT #3 Seed 0.4%
NIT #4 Seed 1.0%
NIT #5 Seed 3.6%
NIT #6 Seed 7.4%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Nevada Wolf Pack. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Nevada Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 90 BYU Home W 86-70
11/9 199 Pacific Home W 83-61
11/16 270 Ark Little Rock Home W 87-59
11/19 204 Cal Baptist Home W 90-55
11/22 107 Tulsa Neutal W 96-86
11/23 239 Massachusetts Neutal W 110-87
11/27 130 Loyola-Chicago Away W 79-65
12/1 120 USC Away W 73-61
12/7 62 Arizona St Neutal W 72-66
12/9 123 Grand Canyon Neutal W 74-66
12/15 133 S Dakota St Home W 72-68
12/22 132 Akron Home W 68-62
12/29 96 Utah Away W 86-71
1/2 30 Utah St Home W 72-49
1/5 191 New Mexico Away L 58-85
1/9 339 San Jose St Home W 92-53
1/12 86 Fresno St Away W 74-64
1/15 182 Boise St Away W 72-71
1/19 222 Air Force Home W 67-52
1/23 213 Colorado St Home W 100-60
1/29 156 UNLV Away W 87-70
2/2 182 Boise St Home W 93-73
2/6 213 Colorado St Away W 98-82
2/9 191 New Mexico Home W 91-62
2/16 315 Wyoming Away W 82-49
2/20 100 San Diego St Away L 57-65
2/23 86 Fresno St Home W 74-68
2/27 156 UNLV Home W 89-73
3/2 30 Utah St Away L 76-81
3/5 222 Air Force Away W 90-79
3/9 100 San Diego St Home W 81-53
3/14 182 Boise St Neutal W 77-69
3/15 100 San Diego St Neutral L 56-65