New Mexico Lobos Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the New Mexico Lobos. All of these projections for New Mexico are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 1/17/2019.

New Mexico Record and Rankings

Record: 8-9
Projected Final Record: 14.0-16.0

Mountain West Conference Record: 2-3
Projected Final Mountain West Record: 8.0-10.0
Projected Final Rank in the Mountain West: 7

New Mexico Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 186
RPI Rank: 172
NET Rank: 185
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 1-1 0-2 0-4 6-2
Win % by Tier 0.500 0.000 0.000 0.750

Our current projections give the New Mexico Lobos a 0.0% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 1.0% chance at an NIT bid and a 99.0% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account New Mexico’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 0.2%
NIT #2 Seed 0.6%
NIT #3 Seed 0.0%
NIT #4 Seed 0.0%
NIT #5 Seed 0.0%
NIT #6 Seed 0.2%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the New Mexico Lobos. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

New Mexico Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 273 CS Northridge Away W 87-84
11/13 238 Iona Home W 90-83
11/17 92 New Mexico St Home L 94-98
11/24 269 UTEP Home W 84-78
12/1 219 Bradley Away W 85-75
12/4 92 New Mexico St Away L 65-100
12/7 64 St Mary’s CA Neutral L 60-85
12/11 108 Colorado Home L 75-78
12/16 245 Cent Arkansas Home W 82-70
12/18 79 North Texas Home L 65-74
12/22 136 Penn Home L 65-75
12/30 No Rank Univ of Southwest Away W 103-47
1/2 232 Air Force Away W 65-58
1/5 20 Nevada Home W 85-58
1/8 165 UNLV Home L 69-80
1/12 212 Colorado St Away L 76-91
1/15 151 San Diego St Away L 77-97
1/19 307 Wyoming Home 86.1%
1/22 165 UNLV Away 30.5%
1/26 56 Utah St Home 32.8%
2/2 59 Fresno St Away 12.5%
2/5 151 San Diego St Home 51.5%
2/9 20 Nevada Away 6.3%
2/13 326 San Jose St Home 88.3%
2/16 59 Fresno St Home 37.2%
2/20 56 Utah St Away 11.7%
2/27 326 San Jose St Away 63.4%
3/2 212 Colorado St Home 66.4%
3/6 154 Boise St Home 50.7%
3/9 307 Wyoming Away 59.5%