New Mexico Lobos Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the New Mexico Lobos. All of these projections for New Mexico are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 3/17/2019.

New Mexico Record and Rankings

Record: 14-18
Projected Final Record: 14.0-18.0

Mountain West Conference Record: 7-11
Projected Final Mountain West Record: 7.0-11.0
Projected Final Rank in the Mountain West: 7

New Mexico Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 191
RPI Rank: 201
NET Rank: 184
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 1-6 0-3 3-6 9-3
Win % by Tier 0.143 0.000 0.333 0.750

Our current projections give the New Mexico Lobos a 0.0% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 0.0% chance at an NIT bid and a 100.0% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account New Mexico’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 0.0%
NIT #2 Seed 0.0%
NIT #3 Seed 0.0%
NIT #4 Seed 0.0%
NIT #5 Seed 0.0%
NIT #6 Seed 0.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the New Mexico Lobos. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

New Mexico Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 269 CS Northridge Away W 87-84
11/13 195 Iona Home W 90-83
11/17 48 New Mexico St Home L 94-98
11/24 302 UTEP Home W 84-78
12/1 153 Bradley Away W 85-75
12/4 48 New Mexico St Away L 65-100
12/7 39 St Mary’s CA Neutral L 60-85
12/11 80 Colorado Home L 75-78
12/16 287 Cent Arkansas Home W 82-70
12/18 164 North Texas Home L 65-74
12/22 126 Penn Home L 65-75
12/30 No Rank Univ of Southwest Away W 103-47
1/2 222 Air Force Away W 65-58
1/5 28 Nevada Home W 85-58
1/8 156 UNLV Home L 69-80
1/12 213 Colorado St Away L 76-91
1/15 100 San Diego St Away L 77-97
1/19 315 Wyoming Home W 83-53
1/22 156 UNLV Away L 58-74
1/26 30 Utah St Home L 66-68
2/2 86 Fresno St Away L 70-82
2/5 100 San Diego St Home W 83-70
2/9 28 Nevada Away L 62-91
2/13 339 San Jose St Home W 92-60
2/16 86 Fresno St Home L 73-81
2/20 30 Utah St Away L 55-71
2/26 339 San Jose St Away L 82-89
3/2 213 Colorado St Home W 77-65
3/6 182 Boise St Home W 73-72
3/9 315 Wyoming Away L 81-88
3/13 315 Wyoming Neutal W 78-68
3/14 30 Utah St Neutral L 83-91