New Mexico State Aggies Projections 2018


These are the latest projections for the New Mexico State Aggies. All of these projections for New Mexico St are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 2/21/2018.

New Mexico St Record and Rankings

Record: 22-5
Projected Final Record: 24.7-5.3

WAC Conference Record: 9-2
Projected Final WAC Record: 11.7-2.3
Projected Final Rank in the WAC: 1

New Mexico St Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 66
RPI Rank: 46
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: 12 Seed

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 1-2 1-1 7-1 10-1
Win % by Tier 0.333 0.500 0.875 0.909

Our current projections give the New Mexico State Aggies a 1.2% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 97.4% chance at an NIT bid and a 1.4% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account New Mexico St’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 1.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 2.8%
NIT #2 Seed 7.6%
NIT #3 Seed 5.0%
NIT #4 Seed 19.6%
NIT #5 Seed 55.4%
NIT #6 Seed 7.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the New Mexico State Aggies. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

New Mexico St Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/10 No Rank East Central OK Home W 81-55
11/13 33 St Mary’s CA Away L 74-92
11/17 136 New Mexico Home W 75-56
11/22 204 Colorado St Home W 89-76
11/25 280 UTEP Home W 72-63
11/30 280 UTEP Away W 80-60
12/3 285 Prairie View Home W 69-57
12/6 146 San Diego Home L 60-65
12/9 136 New Mexico Away W 65-62
12/12 No Rank E New Mexico Home W 84-62
12/16 121 Illinois Chicago, IL W 74-69
12/22 94 Davidson Honolulu, HI W 69-68
12/23 45 Miami FL Honolulu, HI W 63-54
12/25 51 USC Honolulu, HI L 72-77
12/28 156 UC Irvine Away W 65-60
1/6 348 Chicago St Away W 97-60
1/11 150 Grand Canyon Away W 70-59
1/13 231 CS Bakersfield Away W 66-53
1/18 159 Seattle Home W 75-62
1/20 101 Utah Valley Home W 86-59
1/27 270 Missouri KC Away W 73-48
1/30 No Rank N New Mexico Home W 71-45
2/3 218 UTRGV Home W 90-67
2/8 231 CS Bakersfield Home W 69-43
2/10 150 Grand Canyon Home W 74-70
2/15 101 Utah Valley Away L 79-86
2/17 159 Seattle Away L 63-73
2/22 348 Chicago St Home 98.9%
2/24 270 Missouri KC Home 93%
3/3 218 UTRGV Away 75.7%