New Mexico State Aggies Projections 2018


These are the latest projections for the New Mexico State Aggies. All of these projections for New Mexico St are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 3/19/2018.

New Mexico St Record and Rankings

Record: 28-6
Projected Final Record: 28.0-6.0

WAC Conference Record: 15-2
Projected Final WAC Record: 15.0-2.0
Projected Final Rank in the WAC: 1

New Mexico St Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 55
RPI Rank: 35
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: 12 Seed

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 1-2 3-1 9-2 12-0
Win % by Tier 0.333 0.750 0.818 1.000

Our current projections give the New Mexico State Aggies a 100.0% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 0.0% chance at an NIT bid and a 0.0% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account New Mexico St’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #12 Seed 99.0%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 0.0%
NIT #2 Seed 0.0%
NIT #3 Seed 0.0%
NIT #4 Seed 0.0%
NIT #5 Seed 0.0%
NIT #6 Seed 0.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the New Mexico State Aggies. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

New Mexico St Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/10 No Rank East Central OK Home W 81-55
11/13 43 St Mary’s CA Away L 74-92
11/17 99 New Mexico Home W 75-56
11/22 215 Colorado St Home W 89-76
11/25 256 UTEP Home W 72-63
11/30 256 UTEP Away W 80-60
12/3 287 Prairie View Home W 69-57
12/6 145 San Diego Home L 60-65
12/9 99 New Mexico Away W 65-62
12/12 No Rank E New Mexico Home W 84-62
12/16 112 Illinois Chicago, IL W 74-69
12/22 67 Davidson Honolulu, HI W 69-68
12/23 30 Miami FL Honolulu, HI W 63-54
12/25 39 USC Honolulu, HI L 72-77
12/28 148 UC Irvine Away W 65-60
1/6 342 Chicago St Away W 97-60
1/11 123 Grand Canyon Away W 70-59
1/13 232 CS Bakersfield Away W 66-53
1/18 174 Seattle Home W 75-62
1/20 105 Utah Valley Home W 86-59
1/27 268 Missouri KC Away W 73-48
1/30 No Rank N New Mexico Home W 71-45
2/3 250 UTRGV Home W 90-67
2/8 232 CS Bakersfield Home W 69-43
2/10 123 Grand Canyon Home W 74-70
2/15 105 Utah Valley Away L 79-86
2/17 174 Seattle Away L 63-73
2/22 342 Chicago St Home W 78-67
2/24 268 Missouri KC Home W 82-58
3/3 250 UTRGV Away W 86-71
3/8 342 Chicago St Las Vegas, NV W 97-70
3/9 174 Seattle Las Vegas, NV W 84-79
3/10 123 Grand Canyon Las Vegas, NV W 72-58
3/16 20 Clemson NCAA Tournament San Diego CA L 68-79