New Mexico State Aggies Projections 2018


These are the latest projections for the New Mexico State Aggies. All of these projections for New Mexico St are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 11/12/2018.

New Mexico St Record and Rankings

Record: 2-0
Projected Final Record: 26.8-3.2

WAC Conference Record: 0-0
Projected Final WAC Record: 12.8-1.2
Projected Final Rank in the WAC: 1

New Mexico St Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 36
RPI Rank: 13
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: 12 Seed

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-0 2-0 0-0 0-0
Win % by Tier 0.000 1.000 0.000 0.000

Our current projections give the New Mexico State Aggies a 100.0% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 0.0% chance at an NIT bid and a 0.0% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account New Mexico St’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #11 Seed 2.4%
NCAA #12 Seed 68.6%
NCAA #13 Seed 22.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 4.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 0.0%
NIT #2 Seed 0.0%
NIT #3 Seed 0.0%
NIT #4 Seed 0.0%
NIT #5 Seed 0.0%
NIT #6 Seed 0.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the New Mexico State Aggies. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

New Mexico St Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 149 N Dakota St Home W 73-56
11/9 217 UTEP Home W 96-69
11/14 35 St Mary’s CA Home 63.1%
11/17 134 New Mexico Away 72.9%
11/21 No Rank E New Mexico Home 99.5%
11/28 217 UTEP Away 87.8%
12/1 142 Washington St Home 92.2%
12/4 134 New Mexico Home 92%
12/8 6 Kansas Neutral 29.1%
12/17 111 N Colorado Home 87.5%
12/19 318 CS Northridge Home 98.8%
12/22 171 Drake Neutal 87.4%
12/30 263 Colorado St Away 92.1%
1/3 No Rank Cal Baptist Away 98.9%
1/10 143 Grand Canyon Home 91.8%
1/12 196 CS Bakersfield Home 93%
1/17 235 Seattle Away 88.1%
1/19 183 Utah Valley Away 80.4%
1/26 324 UTRGV Away 93.4%
1/31 326 Missouri KC Home 98.9%
2/2 345 Chicago St Home 99.4%
2/7 196 CS Bakersfield Away 79.4%
2/9 143 Grand Canyon Away 70.3%
2/14 183 Utah Valley Home 93%
2/16 235 Seattle Home 97.1%
2/19 No Rank Texas A&M Intl Home 99.5%
2/23 324 UTRGV Home 98.9%
2/28 326 Missouri KC Away 93.4%
3/2 345 Chicago St Away 98.5%
3/9 No Rank Cal Baptist Home 99.5%