North Dakota Fighting Sioux Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the North Dakota Fighting Sioux. All of these projections for North Dakota are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 1/20/2019.

North Dakota Record and Rankings

Record: 8-12
Projected Final Record: 11.7-18.3

Summit Conference Record: 2-5
Projected Final Summit Record: 5.7-11.3
Projected Final Rank in the Summit: 7

North Dakota Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 300
RPI Rank: 301
NET Rank: 275
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-3 0-0 0-2 4-7
Win % by Tier 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.364

Our current projections give the North Dakota Fighting Sioux a 1.6% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 0.0% chance at an NIT bid and a 98.4% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account North Dakota’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 1.6%
NIT #1 Seed 0.0%
NIT #2 Seed 0.0%
NIT #3 Seed 0.0%
NIT #4 Seed 0.0%
NIT #5 Seed 0.0%
NIT #6 Seed 0.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the North Dakota Fighting Sioux. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

North Dakota Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 No Rank Northland Home W 104-48
11/10 267 WI Milwaukee Away W 63-60
11/14 8 Kentucky Away L 58-96
11/17 No Rank MN Morris Home W 112-58
11/20 No Rank Concordia NE Home W 89-56
11/24 114 Utah Valley Away L 68-74
11/27 269 Montana St Away L 76-81
12/1 338 Idaho Home L 54-67
12/5 191 UTRGV Away L 56-70
12/9 267 WI Milwaukee Home W 83-72
12/14 No Rank Mayville St Home W 83-66
12/18 18 Marquette Away L 66-92
12/22 188 Northern Iowa Away L 62-64
12/28 207 PFW Home L 73-84
1/3 271 Oral Roberts Away L 72-83
1/5 307 Denver Away W 80-59
1/10 187 NE Omaha Home L 91-92
1/12 309 W Illinois Home W 71-65
1/16 141 S Dakota St Home L 74-78
1/19 251 N Dakota St Away L 65-67
1/23 224 South Dakota Home 42.5%
1/29 309 W Illinois Away 43.5%
1/31 309 W Illinois Away 43.5%
2/3 187 NE Omaha Away 17.7%
2/6 251 N Dakota St Home 48.2%
2/9 141 S Dakota St Away 10.3%
2/16 271 Oral Roberts Home 55.5%
2/23 307 Denver Home 60.8%
2/28 207 PFW Away 23.3%
3/2 224 South Dakota Away 24.7%