North Florida Ospreys Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the North Florida Ospreys. All of these projections for North Florida are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 1/17/2019.

North Florida Record and Rankings

Record: 9-10
Projected Final Record: 16.2-14.8

Atlantic Sun Conference Record: 3-1
Projected Final Atlantic Sun Record: 10.2-5.8
Projected Final Rank in the Atlantic Sun: 3

North Florida Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 179
RPI Rank: 195
NET Rank: 182
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-4 0-3 1-3 6-0
Win % by Tier 0.000 0.000 0.250 1.000

Our current projections give the North Florida Ospreys a 2.8% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 0.0% chance at an NIT bid and a 97.2% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account North Florida’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 1.2%
NCAA #15 Seed 1.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.6%
NIT #1 Seed 0.0%
NIT #2 Seed 0.0%
NIT #3 Seed 0.0%
NIT #4 Seed 0.0%
NIT #5 Seed 0.0%
NIT #6 Seed 0.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the North Florida Ospreys. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

North Florida Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/7 73 Dayton Away L 70-78
11/9 86 Penn St Away L 72-87
11/14 No Rank Edward Waters Home W 95-83
11/17 174 Wright St Away L 72-89
11/20 159 Southern Miss Neutal W 64-48
11/21 117 Jacksonville St Neutral L 78-83
11/27 46 Florida Away L 66-98
11/29 316 Florida A&M Home W 81-62
12/1 275 Charleston So Away W 76-70
12/11 45 Minnesota Away L 71-80
12/13 202 Florida Intl Away L 89-102
12/15 275 Charleston So Home W 68-61
12/19 26 Florida St Away L 81-95
12/29 16 Auburn Away L 49-95
1/2 No Rank Florida National Home W 104-76
1/5 294 North Alabama Home W 96-67
1/9 47 Lipscomb Away L 66-81
1/12 285 FL Gulf Coast Home W 87-66
1/16 347 Stetson Away W 87-77
1/19 69 Liberty Away 15%
1/21 153 NJIT Home 56.3%
1/24 292 Jacksonville Home 83.8%
1/27 285 FL Gulf Coast Away 61.8%
1/30 344 Kennesaw Away 82.6%
2/6 47 Lipscomb Home 30.1%
2/9 294 North Alabama Away 64.1%
2/13 344 Kennesaw Home 92.6%
2/16 153 NJIT Away 37.6%
2/20 292 Jacksonville Away 61.5%
2/23 69 Liberty Home 37.2%
2/26 347 Stetson Home 92.6%