North Texas Mean Green Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the North Texas Mean Green. All of these projections for North Texas are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 1/17/2019.

North Texas Record and Rankings

Record: 16-2
Projected Final Record: 22.5-4.5

CUSA Conference Record: 4-1
Projected Final CUSA Record: 10.5-3.5
Projected Final Rank in the CUSA: 1

North Texas Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 79
RPI Rank: 64
NET Rank: 65
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: 14 Seed

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-1 1-0 5-1 7-0
Win % by Tier 0.000 1.000 0.833 1.000

Our current projections give the North Texas Mean Green a 19.2% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 49.4% chance at an NIT bid and a 31.4% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account North Texas’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #12 Seed 4.6%
NCAA #13 Seed 8.4%
NCAA #14 Seed 2.8%
NCAA #15 Seed 1.8%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.2%
NIT #1 Seed 0.6%
NIT #2 Seed 0.6%
NIT #3 Seed 2.2%
NIT #4 Seed 6.0%
NIT #5 Seed 8.6%
NIT #6 Seed 15.6%
NIT #7 Seed 11.2%
NIT #8 Seed 4.6%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the North Texas Mean Green. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

North Texas Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 No Rank Angelo St Home W 89-55
11/9 No Rank Humboldt St Neutal W 93-48
11/10 310 Portland Neutal W 78-73
11/11 152 Hawaii Away W 68-51
11/14 No Rank TX A&M Commerce Home W 102-53
11/17 352 MD E Shore Home W 68-34
11/20 321 Maine Home W 74-63
11/24 299 St Peter’s Home W 75-66
11/27 22 Oklahoma Away L 57-73
12/5 163 Indiana St Away W 80-69
12/8 233 UT Arlington Home W 63-61
12/18 186 New Mexico Away W 74-65
12/20 282 Ark Pine Bluff Home W 77-66
12/29 251 Rice Away W 103-87
1/3 114 Louisiana Tech Home W 63-59
1/5 159 Southern Miss Home W 65-62
1/10 269 UTEP Away W 58-51
1/12 160 UT San Antonio Away L 74-76
1/19 251 Rice Home 92.2%
1/24 173 UAB Home 83.5%
1/26 323 MTSU Home 93.8%
1/31 95 Old Dominion Away 41.8%
2/2 260 Charlotte Away 73.4%
2/7 110 Marshall Home 70.6%
2/9 121 WKU Home 68%
2/14 189 FL Atlantic Away 61.5%
2/16 202 Florida Intl Away 61.8%