Northern Arizona Lumberjacks Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the Northern Arizona Lumberjacks. All of these projections for Northern Arizona are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 1/20/2019.

Northern Arizona Record and Rankings

Record: 5-12
Projected Final Record: 10.5-19.5

Big Sky Conference Record: 3-4
Projected Final Big Sky Record: 8.5-11.5
Projected Final Rank in the Big Sky: 8

Northern Arizona Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 296
RPI Rank: 294
NET Rank: 273
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-1 0-1 2-6 3-4
Win % by Tier 0.000 0.000 0.250 0.429

Our current projections give the Northern Arizona Lumberjacks a 0.8% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 0.0% chance at an NIT bid and a 99.2% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Northern Arizona’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.8%
NIT #1 Seed 0.0%
NIT #2 Seed 0.0%
NIT #3 Seed 0.0%
NIT #4 Seed 0.0%
NIT #5 Seed 0.0%
NIT #6 Seed 0.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Northern Arizona Lumberjacks. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Northern Arizona Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/10 287 Jacksonville Home W 97-82
11/12 224 South Dakota Away L 74-90
11/14 187 NE Omaha Away W 76-66
11/18 170 Hawaii Away L 68-85
11/29 274 UC Davis Away L 57-73
12/1 185 Santa Clara Away L 74-81
12/8 114 Utah Valley Home L 78-98
12/15 331 San Jose St Away L 74-79
12/19 45 San Francisco Away L 60-76
12/21 119 Utah Away L 62-76
12/29 142 Montana Home L 73-86
12/31 269 Montana St Home W 74-68
1/3 163 Weber St Away L 52-77
1/5 258 Idaho St Away W 81-69
1/12 234 Southern Utah Away L 82-84
1/17 293 CS Sacramento Home L 64-66
1/19 305 Portland St Home W 82-75
1/26 206 N Colorado Home 42.5%
1/28 234 Southern Utah Home 49.6%
2/2 338 Idaho Away 55.9%
2/4 291 E Washington Away 36.9%
2/7 258 Idaho St Home 52.9%
2/9 163 Weber St Home 35.5%
2/14 305 Portland St Away 39.9%
2/16 293 CS Sacramento Away 37.6%
2/21 338 Idaho Home 80.9%
2/23 291 E Washington Home 59.8%
3/2 269 Montana St Away 30.9%
3/4 142 Montana Away 8.2%
3/9 206 N Colorado Away 18.2%