Northern Arizona Lumberjacks Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the Northern Arizona Lumberjacks. All of these projections for Northern Arizona are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 3/17/2019.

Northern Arizona Record and Rankings

Record: 10-21
Projected Final Record: 10.0-21.0

Big Sky Conference Record: 8-12
Projected Final Big Sky Record: 8.0-12.0
Projected Final Rank in the Big Sky: 8

Northern Arizona Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 304
RPI Rank: 301
NET Rank: 287
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-0 1-4 1-7 8-10
Win % by Tier 0.000 0.200 0.125 0.444

Our current projections give the Northern Arizona Lumberjacks a 0.0% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 0.0% chance at an NIT bid and a 100.0% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Northern Arizona’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 0.0%
NIT #2 Seed 0.0%
NIT #3 Seed 0.0%
NIT #4 Seed 0.0%
NIT #5 Seed 0.0%
NIT #6 Seed 0.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Northern Arizona Lumberjacks. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Northern Arizona Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/10 291 Jacksonville Home W 97-82
11/12 249 South Dakota Away L 74-90
11/14 168 NE Omaha Away W 76-66
11/18 186 Hawaii Away L 68-85
11/29 260 UC Davis Away L 57-73
12/1 172 Santa Clara Away L 74-81
12/8 88 Utah Valley Home L 78-98
12/15 339 San Jose St Away L 74-79
12/19 94 San Francisco Away L 60-76
12/21 96 Utah Away L 62-76
12/29 136 Montana Home L 73-86
12/31 250 Montana St Home W 74-68
1/3 217 Weber St Away L 52-77
1/5 318 Idaho St Away W 81-69
1/12 266 Southern Utah Away L 82-84
1/17 278 CS Sacramento Home L 64-66
1/19 264 Portland St Home W 82-75
1/26 194 N Colorado Home L 48-63
1/28 266 Southern Utah Home W 80-77
2/2 345 Idaho Away W 86-73
2/4 233 E Washington Away L 64-82
2/7 318 Idaho St Home L 79-81
2/9 217 Weber St Home L 71-86
2/14 264 Portland St Away L 94-103
2/16 278 CS Sacramento Away W 78-66
2/21 345 Idaho Home W 75-54
2/23 233 E Washington Home L 73-86
3/2 250 Montana St Away L 73-84
3/4 136 Montana Away L 64-66
3/9 194 N Colorado Away W 89-78
3/13 278 CS Sacramento Neutral L 60-72