Northern Colorado Bears Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the Northern Colorado Bears. All of these projections for N Colorado are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 1/20/2019.

N Colorado Record and Rankings

Record: 11-7
Projected Final Record: 19.2-11.8

Big Sky Conference Record: 5-2
Projected Final Big Sky Record: 13.2-6.8
Projected Final Rank in the Big Sky: 3

N Colorado Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 206
RPI Rank: 191
NET Rank: 198
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-2 0-1 0-3 9-1
Win % by Tier 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.900

Our current projections give the Northern Colorado Bears a 8.2% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 8.4% chance at an NIT bid and a 83.4% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account N Colorado’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 3.2%
NCAA #16 Seed 5.0%
NIT #1 Seed 0.0%
NIT #2 Seed 0.0%
NIT #3 Seed 0.0%
NIT #4 Seed 0.0%
NIT #5 Seed 0.0%
NIT #6 Seed 0.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.4%
NIT #8 Seed 8.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Northern Colorado Bears. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

N Colorado Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/9 No Rank Colorado Col Home W 126-56
11/13 189 Pepperdine Home W 88-80
11/21 339 Incarnate Word Away W 90-64
11/24 14 Texas Tech Away L 62-93
11/28 307 Denver Away W 88-72
12/1 318 Wyoming Away W 85-80
12/11 No Rank J&W CO Home W 118-52
12/15 128 San Diego Away L 65-85
12/17 77 New Mexico St Away L 62-74
12/22 169 Rider Neutral L 67-74
12/23 327 SIUE Neutral L 72-82
12/29 293 CS Sacramento Away W 70-65
12/31 305 Portland St Away W 73-60
1/5 338 Idaho Home W 83-79
1/7 291 E Washington Home W 75-63
1/12 142 Montana Home L 64-88
1/14 269 Montana St Away W 73-70
1/19 163 Weber St Away L 64-78
1/21 258 Idaho St Away 51.1%
1/24 234 Southern Utah Home 72.3%
1/26 296 Northern Arizona Away 57.5%
2/4 269 Montana St Home 78.2%
2/7 305 Portland St Home 83.8%
2/9 293 CS Sacramento Home 82.1%
2/14 338 Idaho Away 68%
2/16 291 E Washington Away 56.1%
2/25 142 Montana Away 17%
2/28 163 Weber St Home 48.2%
3/2 258 Idaho St Home 74.8%
3/7 234 Southern Utah Away 46.3%
3/9 296 Northern Arizona Home 81.8%