Northern Iowa Panthers Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the Northern Iowa Panthers. All of these projections for Northern Iowa are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 1/17/2019.

Northern Iowa Record and Rankings

Record: 8-10
Projected Final Record: 13.3-17.7

MVC Conference Record: 3-2
Projected Final MVC Record: 8.3-9.7
Projected Final Rank in the MVC: 8

Northern Iowa Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 191
RPI Rank: 167
NET Rank: 207
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-2 1-2 3-6 2-0
Win % by Tier 0.000 0.333 0.333 1.000

Our current projections give the Northern Iowa Panthers a 5.0% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 0.2% chance at an NIT bid and a 94.8% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Northern Iowa’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #15 Seed 2.8%
NCAA #16 Seed 1.8%
NIT #1 Seed 0.0%
NIT #2 Seed 0.0%
NIT #3 Seed 0.0%
NIT #4 Seed 0.2%
NIT #5 Seed 0.0%
NIT #6 Seed 0.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Northern Iowa Panthers. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Northern Iowa Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 No Rank Bemidji St Home W 97-51
11/10 233 UT Arlington Away L 65-74
11/16 136 Penn Neutral L 71-78
11/17 240 E Kentucky Neutal W 90-85
11/19 95 Old Dominion Neutal W 54-53
11/23 95 Old Dominion Away L 65-72
11/28 56 Utah St Away L 52-71
12/1 137 S Dakota St Neutral L 50-82
12/8 No Rank Dubuque Home W 75-67
12/15 25 Iowa Neutral L 54-77
12/19 105 Grand Canyon Home L 62-73
12/22 296 North Dakota Home W 64-62
12/29 102 Stony Brook Home L 63-73
1/2 219 Bradley Away W 65-47
1/5 148 S Illinois Home L 51-58
1/8 172 Illinois St Away L 69-70
1/13 122 Drake Home W 57-54
1/16 163 Indiana St Home W 69-64
1/19 175 Valparaiso Away 35.9%
1/23 148 S Illinois Away 24.7%
1/26 171 Evansville Home 53.7%
1/30 111 Loyola-Chicago Away 17%
2/2 196 Missouri St Home 60.1%
2/6 219 Bradley Home 63.8%
2/9 122 Drake Away 19.6%
2/13 172 Illinois St Home 55.1%
2/17 171 Evansville Away 34.4%
2/20 196 Missouri St Away 41.2%
2/23 175 Valparaiso Home 56.1%
2/27 111 Loyola-Chicago Home 40.2%
3/2 163 Indiana St Away 33.2%