Northern Kentucky Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the Northern Kentucky. All of these projections for N Kentucky are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 1/20/2019.

N Kentucky Record and Rankings

Record: 16-4
Projected Final Record: 24.6-6.4

Horizon Conference Record: 6-1
Projected Final Horizon Record: 14.6-3.4
Projected Final Rank in the Horizon: 1

N Kentucky Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 102
RPI Rank: 99
NET Rank: 112
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: 14 Seed

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-2 0-0 4-2 10-0
Win % by Tier 0.000 0.000 0.667 1.000

Our current projections give the Northern Kentucky a 50.6% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 45.4% chance at an NIT bid and a 4.0% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account N Kentucky’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 1.0%
NCAA #12 Seed 5.2%
NCAA #13 Seed 23.2%
NCAA #14 Seed 15.8%
NCAA #15 Seed 4.6%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.4%
NIT #1 Seed 0.2%
NIT #2 Seed 0.2%
NIT #3 Seed 0.4%
NIT #4 Seed 0.6%
NIT #5 Seed 1.0%
NIT #6 Seed 7.0%
NIT #7 Seed 28.8%
NIT #8 Seed 7.2%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Northern Kentucky. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

N Kentucky Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 No Rank Wilmington OH Home W 102-38
11/9 144 N Illinois Away W 88-85
11/11 No Rank Wabash Home W 99-59
11/16 353 UNC Asheville Home W 77-50
11/17 333 Manhattan Home W 59-53
11/18 214 Coastal Car Home W 89-83
11/24 46 UCF Away L 53-66
11/27 250 Morehead St Away W 93-71
11/30 264 UMBC Home W 78-60
12/4 32 Cincinnati Away L 65-78
12/8 225 E Kentucky Away L 74-76
12/16 180 Miami OH Home W 72-66
12/20 144 N Illinois Home W 65-62
12/28 193 IUPUI Home W 92-77
12/30 217 IL Chicago Home W 73-58
1/3 202 Oakland Away L 74-76
1/5 192 Detroit Away W 95-73
1/11 161 Wright St Home W 68-64
1/17 313 Cleveland St Away W 91-76
1/19 301 Youngstown St Away W 82-74
1/24 205 WI Green Bay Home 86.6%
1/26 267 WI Milwaukee Home 92%
2/1 193 IUPUI Away 63.4%
2/3 217 IL Chicago Away 66.4%
2/7 192 Detroit Home 84.7%
2/9 202 Oakland Home 85.2%
2/15 161 Wright St Away 54.8%
2/21 301 Youngstown St Home 92.6%
2/23 313 Cleveland St Home 92.6%
2/28 267 WI Milwaukee Away 74.3%
3/2 205 WI Green Bay Away 64.5%