Northern Kentucky Projections 2018


These are the latest projections for the Northern Kentucky. All of these projections for N Kentucky are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 2/19/2018.

N Kentucky Record and Rankings

Record: 19-8
Projected Final Record: 21.3-8.7

Horizon Conference Record: 12-3
Projected Final Horizon Record: 14.3-3.7
Projected Final Rank in the Horizon: 1

N Kentucky Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 119
RPI Rank: 115
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: 15 Seed

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-3 1-2 2-3 14-0
Win % by Tier 0.000 0.333 0.400 1.000

Our current projections give the Northern Kentucky a 54.0% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 32.6% chance at an NIT bid and a 13.4% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account N Kentucky’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #12 Seed 2.8%
NCAA #13 Seed 26.2%
NCAA #14 Seed 23.4%
NCAA #15 Seed 1.6%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 0.0%
NIT #2 Seed 0.0%
NIT #3 Seed 0.0%
NIT #4 Seed 0.0%
NIT #5 Seed 0.2%
NIT #6 Seed 7.4%
NIT #7 Seed 23.0%
NIT #8 Seed 2.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Northern Kentucky. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

N Kentucky Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/10 67 ETSU Home W 81-63
11/12 No Rank Wilmington OH Home W 93-65
11/17 235 James Madison Nassau, Bahamas W 87-78
11/18 166 Iona Nassau, Bahamas W 85-72
11/19 63 Vermont Nassau, Bahamas L 64-66
11/25 112 Memphis Away L 74-76
11/29 No Rank Berea Home W 112-33
12/2 306 Morehead St Home W 86-49
12/6 67 ETSU Away L 71-84
12/10 283 E Kentucky Home W 91-63
12/17 184 UMBC Away L 75-76
12/19 27 Texas A&M Away L 58-64
12/28 305 IUPUI Home W 77-59
12/30 201 IL Chicago Home W 86-51
1/5 154 Oakland Away W 87-83
1/7 302 Detroit Away W 56-54
1/11 133 Wright St Home L 81-84
1/15 315 Cleveland St Home W 70-55
1/18 214 WI Milwaukee Away W 91-64
1/20 309 WI Green Bay Away W 77-65
1/26 154 Oakland Home L 70-83
1/28 302 Detroit Home W 72-44
2/1 320 Youngstown St Away W 95-85
2/3 315 Cleveland St Away W 78-61
2/8 214 WI Milwaukee Home W 54-52
2/10 309 WI Green Bay Home W 86-80
2/16 133 Wright St Away L 67-69
2/19 320 Youngstown St Home 93%
2/23 201 IL Chicago Away 59.2%
2/25 305 IUPUI Away 79.4%